National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 02:33:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 02:33:07 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070231 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Juliette continues to slowly weaken. Cloud tops have gradually warmed since the last advisory and several recent microwave overpasses show that convection is now limited to the eastern half of the cyclone. The intensity has been lowered to 55 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix. No substantial changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. Juliette is located over 23-24 deg C waters, and will remain over fairly cool waters for the next several days. Continued weakening appears inevitable and Juliette is forecast to become a remnant low within 48 h. Although the system will reach marginally warmer waters to the west by the end of the forecast period, it will have weakened enough that significant regeneration is unlikely at that time. The initial motion remains west-northwestward at 11 kt. Juliette should turn westward on Saturday as it weakens further and is steered entirely by low-level easterly flow. All of the models forecast that the tropical storm/remnant low will then continue westward for several days thereafter. The NHC forecast is very close to the East Pacific multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 23.7N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 24.1N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 24.2N 129.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 24.1N 132.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.0N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z 23.9N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 24.0N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z 24.0N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 070231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 1 32(33) 6(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 25N 130W 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 130W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 1(14) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 070231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 ...JULIETTE SLOWLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 126.0W ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 126.0 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). The tropical storm is forecast to turn westward on Saturday, and it should continue moving westward through early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast and Juliette will likely become a remnant low by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...JULIETTE SLOWLY WEAKENING... As of 5:00 PM HST Fri Sep 6 the center of Juliette was located near 23.7, -126.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 070230 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 126.0W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 126.0W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 125.5W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 127.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.2N 129.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.1N 132.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.0N 134.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.9N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.0N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 126.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 062307
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 6 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Juliette, located nearly 1000 miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week a few
hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Gradual
development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 20:38:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 21:38:29 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 062037 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Deep convection associated with Juliette has continued to gradually decrease in coverage and organization today. The various satellite intensity estimates have continued to slowly decline, and now support an initial intensity of 60 kt. The tropical storm will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. This should result in steady weakening and Juliette is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours. The system will be moving back over slightly warmer waters later in the forecast period, but westerly shear should prevent any re-organization. Juliette is now moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should continue west-northwestward tonight, and then turn westward on Saturday as it weakens and is steered by the low-level easterly flow. The track guidance remains in good agreement but has trended slightly faster once again. The new official forecast was adjusted accordingly, and is once again near the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 23.4N 124.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 23.8N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 24.1N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 24.1N 130.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 23.9N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z 23.7N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1800Z 24.0N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 062036 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 130W 34 1 9(10) 18(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 062036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 ...JULIETTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 124.9W ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 124.9 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur on Saturday and a general westward motion should continue into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Juliette is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low late Saturday or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown

...JULIETTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Sep 6 the center of Juliette was located near 23.4, -124.9 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 062035 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 124.9W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 124.9W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 124.4W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.8N 126.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.1N 128.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.1N 130.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.9N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.7N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 124.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 6 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 061452 CCA TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 22...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Corrected headline ...JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 123.4W ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 123.4 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion should continue during the next 24 hours. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur on Saturday and a general westward motion should continue into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Juliette is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown

...JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Sep 6 the center of Juliette was located near 22.8, -123.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 14:39:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 15:38:31 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 061437 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Deep convection associated with Juliette has decreased in coverage over the past 24 hours, however, the remaining convection still wraps completely around the center. Subjective and objective raw T-numbers from TAFB and UW/CIMSS have fallen below 4.0, however the current intensity (CI) numbers are still at 4.5. Using a blend of these T- and CI-numbers, as NHC typically does during the weakening phase, yields an initial wind speed of 65 kt for this advisory. Juliette is currently over SSTs of around 24.5 degrees Celsius, with even cooler waters and a more stable and drier air mass along the predicted path of the storm. These conditions should cause gradual weakening over the next day or so, and Juliette is forecast to become post-tropical in 36 to 48 hours. Recent fixes show that Juliette has turned west-northwestward or 300/10 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer Juliette west-northwestward during the next 24 hours. After that time, the cyclone should turn westward within the low-level tradewind flow. The dynamical models are in better agreement today on the both the track and forward speed of the cyclone, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 22.8N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1200Z 23.5N 135.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1200Z 23.5N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z 24.0N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 061436 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 24 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 1 3( 4) 16(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 061436 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.4W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.4W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 135.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 123.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN