Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 9

5 years 10 months ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141455 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Kiko's cloud pattern has continued to quickly organize overnight and this morning. A couple of high-resolution microwave overpass from several hours ago revealed significant banding around the center, and that a banded eye had formed. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC were 55 kt, and the UW/CIMSS ADT is now up to about 60 kt. Based on the continued increase in organization, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt. Kiko is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low wind shear environment during the next day or so. This should allow for additional intensification, and Kiko is expected to become a hurricane later today. The new NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity and is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, which is at the upper-end of the guidance envelope. By 72 hours, Kiko will be moving into an area of increasing westerly shear and over slightly cooler waters. As a result, steady weakening is anticipated later in forecast period. The tropical storm is moving westward (280/9 kt) to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. The track models still exhibit an usually large spread after 48 hours, especially for a system in the eastern Pacific basin. This appears to be the result of the forecast vertical depth of Kiko and how the cyclone responds to a developing weakness in the ridge. The GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and HWRF show a more northerly track, with a stronger Kiko heading toward the break in the ridge. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET take a weaker Kiko on a more westerly heading. Since the NHC forecast shows Kiko a stronger and vertically deep system during the next couple of days, the track forecast lies a little north of the consensus models. After that time, Kiko is likely to weaken and the official forecast shows a turn back toward the west, as Kiko comes under the influence of the low-level easterly flow. As a result of the large model spread, the confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 17.4N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.6N 119.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 18.3N 122.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 18.8N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 19.6N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 20.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 20.7N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

5 years 10 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 141454 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 34 3 14(17) 7(24) 3(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 23(29) 36(65) 4(69) 1(70) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 2(29) X(29) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 9

5 years 10 months ago
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 141453 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 ...KIKO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 118.3W ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 118.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward course at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kiko is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and maintain hurricane intensity into Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 9

5 years 10 months ago
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 141453 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 118.3W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 118.3W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 117.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.6N 119.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 122.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.8N 123.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.6N 125.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 20.3N 128.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 20.7N 131.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 118.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

5 years 10 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141148
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A weak area of low pressure centered about 500 miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week
while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward well offshore
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala. This system is producing a more
concentrated but also disorganized area of showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle
of next week while the system moves west-northwestward, near or
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 8

5 years 10 months ago
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 434 WTPZ43 KNHC 140839 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A 0205 UTC WindSat pass showed that Kiko's low-level structure has become significantly better defined. The storm has also been producing a persistent cluster of deep convection, although microwave fixes suggest that the surface center is located beneath the eastern side of the convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates range from 45-55 kt, but scatterometer data from a few hours ago indicated that maximum winds were between 40-45 kt. Kiko's initial intensity is therefore held at 45 kt, but the cyclone's improved structure likely means that its winds will increase again soon. There's still a swath of dry air to the north and west of the storm, but now that the inner core has become more established, Kiko should be able to take advantage of low shear and sufficiently warm waters to strengthen during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) during the first 36 hours, showing a little more strengthening than the previous forecast, and making Kiko a hurricane in 24 hours. While the new forecast is also a little higher at 48 hours, it's still below the HCCA, FSSE, and HWRF solutions, so additional adjustment could be required in subsequent advisories. Weakening should commence by day 3 due to little to no oceanic heat content and gradually increasing westerly shear. Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north should drive the cyclone on a westward to west-northwestward heading for the entire forecast period. The most significant gain in latitude should occur from Sunday through Tuesday when Kiko is at its strongest and responds to a break in the ridge between 120W and 130W. While the GFS and ECMWF models still prefer northern and southern solutions within the guidance envelope, respectively, the distance between the two at day 5 has been cut in half in the latest model runs, suggesting that the track uncertainty is not as high as it was previously. The NHC track forecast remains close to the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 17.4N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.7N 119.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.1N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 18.6N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 19.5N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 20.2N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

5 years 10 months ago
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 416 FOPZ13 KNHC 140839 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 120W 34 3 15(18) 16(34) 5(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 40(52) 7(59) 1(60) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) X(22) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) $$ FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 8

5 years 10 months ago
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140839 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 117.1W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 117.1W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.4N 118.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.7N 119.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.1N 121.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.6N 122.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.5N 124.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 20.2N 126.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 117.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 8

5 years 10 months ago
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140839 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 ...KIKO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 117.1W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 117.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward course at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Kiko is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and maintain hurricane intensity into Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

5 years 10 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 140543
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers located about 1800 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are associated with
an elongated trough of low pressure. Development of this system is
not expected as it begins to drift eastward into the larger
circulation of Tropical Storm Kiko during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a weak area of low
pressure has developed along an elongated trough about 500 miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. This disturbance is producing
a large area of disorganized cloudiness, showers, and a few
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week
while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward well offshore
the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Satellite-derived wind data also indicate that a broad area of low
pressure is developing a few hundred miles south of the coast of
Guatemala. This system is producing a more concentrated but also
disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the
system moves west-northwestward, near or parallel to the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 7

5 years 10 months ago
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140241 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Kiko may have finally kicked the dry air out of its inner core. There has been a dramatic expansion of cold cloud tops extending from the center of the cyclone, and recent microwave imagery confirms that convective activity is much greater than it was 24 h ago. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have gone up and now support an initial intensity of 45 kt. This value is fairly uncertain, and it certainly possible that Kiko has not strengthened quite that much at this point. It has been very difficult to identify the low-level center of Kiko, and the initial motion is a very uncertain 285/8 kt. In the short term, the initial position may actually be the main source of uncertainty in the forecast. The cyclone should head westward or west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for the next couple of days, and the guidance is very tightly clustered. Beginning Monday, Kiko could turn west-northwestward or northwestward if it substantially deepens, as shown by the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models, or it could just accelerate generally westward, as depicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. The spread grows quite quickly by the end of the forecast period, and the GFS and ECMWF are nearly 500 n mi apart by day 5. The NHC forecast splits these 2 scenarios as a course of least regret, and follows the multi-model consensus closely through the end of the period. Despite its recent convective resurgence, there is still a fair amount of dry air surrounding the cyclone. The environment appears otherwise favorable for strengthening, and most of the guidance calls for additional strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted a little higher, given Kiko's current convective structure, and once again shows Kiko becoming a hurricane in a couple of days. Whatever peak the cyclone reaches, it will likely begin to weaken by day 4 as it encounters cooler waters, drier air, and potentially increased shear. The official intensity forecast is near HCCA throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.1N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

5 years 10 months ago
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 140241 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 5 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 120W 34 2 9(11) 17(28) 13(41) 4(45) X(45) 1(46) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 38(44) 10(54) 1(55) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 7

5 years 10 months ago
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140241 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...KIKO FINALLY STARTS TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 116.3W ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 116.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwest or west motion at a similar forward speed is expected through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kiko is expected to be at or near hurricane strength by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 7

5 years 10 months ago
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140240 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
NHC Webmaster

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

5 years 10 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132345
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1600 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
are associated with a tropical wave. Little to no development of
this system is anticipated while it moves slowly westward for the
next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A broad trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Some gradual development
of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form
early next week while the system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward well off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Central America in a day or two. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while the
system moves west-northwestward, near or parallel to the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
NHC Webmaster
Checked
5 years 9 months ago
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