National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 162035 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 There hasn't been a lot of change in Kiko during the day, with the cyclone keeping a small central core and no hints of an eye feature. While there is plenty of outflow, the sharp edge in the cirrus canopy on the north side is indicative of the maintenance of northeasterly shear. Intensity estimates are lower than this morning, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 85 kt. Weakening is anticipated during the next day or so as the shear continues. The forecast is more complicated after that time since the track keeps adjusting southward over warmer water while the shear relaxes. This change results in some models showing re-intensification in a few days, although that's temporary since the shear is forecast to resume at long range. To account for this scenario, the new forecast shows a small bump up in intensity for later this week, and we will just have to see how far south Kiko makes it before making a more significant increase in winds. Kiko continues to move westward at 4 kt to the south of a weak mid- level ridge. The hurricane is forecast to turn to the west- southwest by tomorrow due to a mid-level ridge building in from the central Pacific. This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours, while subtropical ridging builds to the north and northeast of the cyclone. This should result in a general westward to west- northwestward track through the end of the forecast period. The majority in the models are south of their previous tracks, starting the south-of-west motion as early as tonight. Thus the new forecast is adjusted south of the last NHC prediction, and this is not a particularly confident situation due to the unsteadiness of most of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 17.3N 124.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 17.1N 124.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 16.8N 125.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 16.6N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 17.0N 129.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 17.3N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 162035 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 7( 8) 7(15) 3(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 24(29) 6(35) 2(37) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 6(18) 2(20) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 162035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 ...KIKO SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 124.1W ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 124.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A west-southwestward motion is forecast for Tuesday, followed by a turn back to the west on Wednesday with that motion continuing into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, then little change in strength is expected on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...KIKO SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Kiko was located near 17.3, -124.1 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 162034 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.1N 124.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.8N 125.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.6N 126.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 129.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 132.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 124.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the southwestern part of the basin.

A small area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to become better
organized. Any significant increase in organized thunderstorm
activity will likely result in the formation of a tropical
depression tonight or tomorrow. Beyond mid week, strong upper-level
winds from the system to the east could inhibit further development
while the low moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Thunderstorm activity associated with a larger low pressure area
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is also becoming better organized, with
satellite-derived winds indicating that the circulation is also
better defined. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form in a day or two as the system moves west-
northwestward near or a short distance offshore of the coast of
Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A large area of cloudiness and showers near and just west of
Central America is associated with a tropical wave. Gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Locally heavy rainfall is also possible along the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala and southeastern Mexico this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 14:51:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 15:31:36 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 161451 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Microwave data and satellite imagery continue to indicate that the core of Kiko is being disrupted. While there is a seemingly favorable outflow pattern, northeasterly shear is undercutting the top layer and preventing the cyclone from having a closed eyewall. Satellite estimates are falling and support a perhaps-generous initial wind speed of 90 kt. The shear is forecast to continue during the next day or so, which should promote further weakening. After that time, the shear could lessen, although the environment overall is hardly very conducive for strengthening, and this scenario would best support little change in intensity. By Friday-Saturday, model guidance does show an increase in shear, so a more notable weakening could occur. The new NHC intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, following the trend in the guidance, but is a bit above the model consensus. A fair number of models actually show a weaker cyclone, but in a complex environment, I'd rather be conservative in changing the longer-range intensity forecast. There's no significant track change to report with Kiko. The hurricane is moving westward at 4 kt, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge. By 36 hours, another ridge building to the northwest of the hurricane will begin to steer Kiko to the west-southwest. This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours, while subtropical ridging builds to the north and northeast of the cyclone. This will likely result in a general westward to west-northwestward track through the end of the forecast period. The new forecast track is close to the previous one, on the faster and southern side of the guidance, which has generally been the right place to be with Kiko's track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 17.3N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 16.9N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 16.7N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 16.9N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 17.3N 130.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 161450 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 4( 5) 10(15) 5(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 18(23) 10(33) 3(36) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 8(18) 3(21) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 161450 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 ...KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 123.7W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 123.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A west-southwestward motion is forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a turn back to the west on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Kiko is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Kiko was located near 17.3, -123.7 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 161450 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.9N 126.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 127.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.9N 129.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N 130.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 123.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161145
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located in the southwestern part of the basin.

Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure centered several hundred
miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next two to three days. After mid
week, this system is forecast to interact or merge with the
disturbance to its east, and further development could be limited.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better defined overnight, and
the associated thunderstorm activity has also increased.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around
the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward near,
or parallel to, the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A large area of cloudiness and showers near and just west of
Central America is associated with a tropical wave. Gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while the wave moving westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
Locally heavy rainfall is also possible along the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala and southeastern Mexico this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 08:41:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 09:29:22 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160839 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Microwave data and satellite imagery are indicating that northeasterly shear is disrupting the core of hurricane Kiko. There is no eye evident, and the central dense overcast has become less symmetric. A blend of the latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support lowering the initial advisory intensity to 100 kt. Kiko is moving westward at 5 kt, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge. By 36 hours, a ridge building to the northwest of the hurricane will begin to steer it to the west-southwest. This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours, while ridging builds to the north and northeast of the cyclone. This will result in a general west to west-northwestward track through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC forecast track was nudged slightly southward, and is in between the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. The northeasterly shear currently impacting Kiko is forecast to persist for the next 24 hours or so. The shear should subside between 24-72 hours, but at the same time, increasing subsidence from the building ridge to the northwest should have a counteractive affect on the lower shear. After 72 hours, an upper level trough approaching from the northwest is expected to cause strong southwesterly shear to affect the cyclone. The official forecast is in general agreement with the various intensity aids, and shows gradual weakening through 36 hours, and then levels off the intensity until 72 hours before resuming a weakening trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.2N 123.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 17.2N 123.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 17.2N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 17.0N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 16.8N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 17.0N 128.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 17.2N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 17.3N 131.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160839 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 5( 6) 15(21) 8(29) 6(35) 2(37) X(37) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 14(34) 6(40) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 11(21) 5(26) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160839 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 ...KIKO NOW WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 123.1W ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 123.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A west-southwestward motion is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a turn back to the west on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...KIKO NOW WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Kiko was located near 17.2, -123.1 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160838 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 123.1W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 123.1W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.2N 123.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.2N 124.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.0N 125.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.8N 126.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.0N 128.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 17.2N 130.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 17.3N 131.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 123.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160545
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located nearly 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased tonight in association with
an area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression could form within
the next two to three days. After mid week, this system is likely
to interact or merge with the disturbance to its east, and further
development after that time is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle of the week as the
system moves west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto