National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2022 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 201432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC MON JUN 20 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 94.8W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 94.8W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 94.4W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.6N 96.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 11.8N 98.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.2N 100.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.8N 102.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.6N 105.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.3N 108.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.4N 110.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 94.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201125
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jun 20 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Blas, located a few hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and
on Tropical Depression Celia, located a couple of hundred miles
south of the coast of southeastern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 191436 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Similar to yesterday, a widespread area of deep convection has formed along and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, likely in association with an ongoing gap wind event. There has also been a few more clusters of deep convection developing just west of Celia's estimated low-level center. Despite this activity, none of it is especially well-organized and remains primarily down-shear of Celia's vortex. However, it is enough coverage for now to keep Celia as a classifiable tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 25 kt this advisory, favoring the lower SAB Dvorak classification given the lackluster winds found with overnight scatterometer and a ship report near the center. Celia's motion continues off to the west, estimated at 265/7 kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement that a west-southwest motion will continue for the next 36 h as Celia is steered by a deep-level ridge to the north supplemented by low-level northerly flow from a gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, a turn to the west and west-northwest is anticipated as Celia becomes positioned on the southwest side of the deep-layer ridging. The NHC track forecast was nudged slightly south again from the prior one following a southward adjustment in the latest consensus aids (HCCA, TVCE). Moderate to strong east-northeasterly vertical wind shear over the next 24-36 hours still appears likely to keep Celia in check, and the system is forecast to remain a depression during that time. Afterwards, both the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicates this shear should gradual subside as the system moves over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. The majority of the intensity guidance responds to this environment by showing intensification, and the latest NHC intensity forecast was nudged upward just a bit after 36 hours. This forecast is a blend between the lower HCCA and higher IVCN consensus aids, and is quite close to the most recent COAMPS-TC (CTCI) forecast in 120 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 12.8N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 12.4N 93.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 11.8N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 11.7N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 12.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 12.4N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 12.9N 102.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 14.5N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 16.0N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Jun 2022 14:35:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Jun 2022 15:22:37 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Jun 2022 14:35:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Jun 2022 15:28:37 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 191434 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 5(30) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 191434 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022 ...CELIA MOVING WESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 92.4W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 92.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a west-southwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so followed by gradual strengthening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...CELIA MOVING WESTWARD AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 the center of Celia was located near 12.8, -92.4 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 191434 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 Blas has generally changed little in strength and structure during the past several hours. The storm is maintaining an area of deep convection to the east of the exposed low-level center. The Dvorak classifications continue to range between 35 and 45 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. Blas is already over cool 25 degree C waters, and it is headed for even cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should cause the storm to decay, and it will likely become a remnant low on Monday and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. The storm is moving slowly west-northwestward at 6 kt. An even slower westward motion is expected within the low-level flow until the system dissipates. The NHC track forecast is a touch slower than the previous one, trending toward the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.0N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1200Z 19.1N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0000Z 19.3N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 191433 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 3 16(19) 6(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA CLARION 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 2 10(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 191433 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Blas Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 900 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022 ...BLAS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 113.0W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blas was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 113.0 West. Blas is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is anticipated, and Blas is forecast to become a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...BLAS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sun Jun 19 the center of Blas was located near 19.0, -113.0 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022 396 WTPZ23 KNHC 191433 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 92.4W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 92.4W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 91.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.4N 93.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.8N 95.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.7N 97.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.0N 99.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.4N 101.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.9N 102.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 14.5N 106.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 108.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 92.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022 397 WTPZ22 KNHC 191433 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022022 1500 UTC SUN JUN 19 2022 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 113.0W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 113.0W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.1N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.3N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191120
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jun 19 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Blas, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical
Depression Celia, located a short distance south of Guatemala.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Jun 2022 14:39:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Jun 2022 15:31:18 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181439 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 After exhibiting a mostly exposed low-level swirl on overnight satellite imagery, this morning a small but deep burst of convection has formed just to the west of the center of Celia. Yet, this activity does not have much organization and already appears to be impacted by significant easterly vertical wind shear over the system currently. Morning satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are at 35 kt and 30 kt, with objective estimates from ADT and SATCON at 25 kt and 36 kt respectively. The initial intensity will remain 30 kt for this advisory. Celia's long awaited left turn appears to be underway, with the motion now at 290/4 kt. A building ridge to the north of Celia should continue this westward turn in its track as the deep-layer steering flow vector shifts out of the east. In general, a westward motion is anticipated through the forecast period, though with a more southward inflection over the next 48 hours, and a more northward inflection thereafter. The new forecast track is just a touch north of the various consensus aids (TVCE, HCCA) and is changed little from the previous forecast. Greater than 20 kt of easterly shear is forecast to continue affecting Celia for at least the next 36-48 hours. For this primary reason, the depression is expected to only maintain its intensity, and it is quite possible the center may become stretched-out or reform down-shear to the west where the deep-convective activity should remain focused. After 48 hours, the easterly shear is forecast to gradually subside, and Celia could have an opportunity to intensify. The intensity forecast is essentially a carbon copy of the previous one, and is in general agreement with the consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. 2. Interests along the coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this system, although the chances of direct wind impacts continue to decrease. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 12.8N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 12.8N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 12.5N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 12.1N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 12.0N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 12.2N 97.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 12.5N 99.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 13.5N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 181436 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 18 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 10N 95W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P SAN JOSE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 181435 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Celia Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022 ...CELIA CONTINUES TO TURN MORE WESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 90.0W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of El Salvador, Guatemala, and extreme southeastern Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this system, though the changes of direct wind impacts are decreasing. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Celia was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 90.0 West. The depression is now moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A further turn to the west is expected by tonight with a gradual increase in forward speed by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall are expected to the north of Tropical Depression Celia across portions of far southern Mexico, Guatemala and El Salvador through Sunday. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and mudslides across the region. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin

...CELIA CONTINUES TO TURN MORE WESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 18 the center of Celia was located near 12.8, -90.0 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.