National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 08:56:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 09:31:32 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150855 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Kiko has continued to strengthen overnight and is now characterized by a cold ring of convection with cloud top temperatures below -70 degrees Celsius surrounding a clearing, well-defined eye. Both subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have increased, and a blend of these estimates indicate an initial intensity of 110 kt. The improved appearance and structure of Kiko over the past several hours suggests that some additional strengthening is possible today, and the official forecast makes Kiko a category 4 hurricane by this afternoon. The intensity forecast beyond that time becomes challenging. Dynamical and statistical guidance unanimously weaken Kiko over the next few days. However, other than a slight increase in northeasterly shear indicated in SHIPS guidance, there are no other environmental indicators that stand out as a good reason for Kiko to weaken as quickly as shown by that guidance. It is also interesting to note that there is significant model spread in the forecast position of Kiko by 72 hours. Some of the guidance places Kiko over cool SSTs by day 3, while some solutions keep Kiko over warmer water. The official foreast, which is similar to the previous one, does indicate some weakening through 72 hours, but at a slower rate than the majority of the guidance since the latest forecast has trended southward over warm water. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear from an upper-level trough to the northwest of Kiko should cause steady weakening after that time. Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265/7 kt. A mid level ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it generally on a west or west-northwestward track for the next couple of days. As mentioned previously, the models diverge by 72 hours as they differ in how they handle a mid to upper-level trough approaching California from the west. The northernmost solutions produce a break in the ridge with a sharper trough. The southern solutions keep the ridge in tact. Based on the continuation of a slight southward trend in the guidance, and the southward bias in the actual track of the cyclone recently, I am placing a little more weight on the southern solutions. However, given the large spread beyond 72 hours, the track confidence during that time is low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 16.9N 120.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 16.9N 121.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 17.2N 122.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 17.6N 124.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 17.8N 126.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 18.1N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 18.5N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150855 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) 11(29) 4(33) 1(34) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 15(36) 4(40) 1(41) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 6(19) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 14(35) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150854 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 ...KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 120.7W ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 120.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west to west-northwest motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and Kiko could become a category 4 hurricane later today. Gradual weakening is then expected to begin tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Kiko was located near 16.9, -120.7 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150853 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.7W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.7W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.9N 121.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.2N 122.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.6N 124.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.8N 126.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 18.1N 128.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 131.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 120.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 150527
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico is associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves
slowly westward or west-northwestward well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another weak area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of the week as the system moves
west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 02:18:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 02:18:29 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150216 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 11(25) 4(29) 1(30) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 16(23) 22(45) 5(50) 1(51) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 10(28) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150216 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Kiko has undergone a remarkable intensification over the past 24 hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is 100 kt, 55 kt higher than last night's estimate at the same time. The hurricane briefly developed a very clear eye earlier today, and although the eye has become slightly obscured by an increase in eyewall convection, it still has a very impressive satellite appearance. The 100 kt intensity is based on a blend of recent subjective and objective estimates that range from 90 to 105 kt. There is no obvious reason why Kiko would stop strengthening in the short term. The hurricane is clearly not being affected by any of the dry air to its east, SSTs beneath the cyclone are warm, and the shear is quite low. This should be the case for the next 36 h or so, and Kiko is expected to at least maintain its current strength through that period. Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is quite complicated. Kiko will be moving nearly parallel to a strong SST gradient. If the hurricane moves farther south than forecast, it could maintain its strength for longer than indicated. But if it moves farther north, it will likely weaken quickly. Kiko is also forecast to slow down, and upwelling of colder water could also become a factor in a few days, even if the hurricane stays on the warm side of the SST gradient. The NHC forecast continues to show gradual weakening beyond 36 h, but is on the high side of the intensity guidance, most of which is tied to a forecast track north of the latest NHC forecast. The hurricane has slowed a little but is still moving west with a motion of 270/8 kt. For the next couple of days a mid-level ridge should keep Kiko moving generally westward at a similar forward speed. Beyond that time, there is significant divergence between the models. The GFS and regional hurricane models all show the ridge weakening, allowing Kiko to turn northwestward. The ECMWF and UKMET (as well as a clear majority of their ensembles) show no such weakness forming and keep Kiko moving steadily westward through mid-week. Unfortunately, no one solution appears superior at this point, so the NHC forecast isn't fully following either group of models. Instead it has been adjusted only modestly southward, and remains close to the multi-model consensus. Needless to say, confidence in the forecast is quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.0N 120.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150216 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 ...KIKO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 120.1W ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 120.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. A slightly slower motion toward the west-northwest is forecast by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by Monday, but Kiko is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150216 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.1W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.1W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 119.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 120.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 530 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ63 KNHC 150036 CCA TCUEP3 Hurricane Kiko Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 530 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Corrected location coordinates ...HURRICANE KIKO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH... Recent satellite-based intensity estimates indicate that Hurricane Kiko has rapidly strengthened since the last advisory. The maximum sustained winds have increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The higher intensity will be reflected in the next forecast advisory, which will be issued before 800 PM PDT. SUMMARY OF 530 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 119.7W ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...KIKO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -120.1 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142309
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Kiko, located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure located about 500 miles southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves slowly westward
or west-northwestward well offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another weak area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala. Although the shower activity is
currently poorly organized, environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for gradual development and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week. This system is expected to
move west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 20:37:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 21:31:34 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 142036 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 2(17) 1(18) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 13(18) 27(45) 3(48) X(48) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142036 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Kiko has continued to quickly strengthen today, with an eye becoming apparent in geostationary and microwave satellite imagery. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T4.5 (77 kt), and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS ADT and SATCON are around 75 kt. On this basis, the initial wind speed as been raised to 75 kt for this advisory, and Kiko becomes the sixth hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin this season. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so while Kiko remains over warm water and within low vertical wind shear conditions. After that time, slightly cooler waters and a little increase in shear are likely to cause gradual weakening. A faster rate of filling is expected after 72 hours when Kiko is forecast to encounter stronger westerly shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance, once again in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. Recent microwave fixes show that the center of Kiko is a little south of the previous estimates, which results in a more westward initial motion estimate of 270/10 kt. Kiko is currently being steered westward by a mid-level ridge that extends westward over the eastern Pacific from northern Mexico. The western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days which should cause Kiko to slow down and gain some latitude. There continues to be usually large spread in the track guidance, with the spread over 400 n mi by day 5. The latest trend in the guidance is slower and farther southward after 48 hours, so the NHC track has been adjusted in the direction. The new track forecast is not as slow as the lastest consensus models, so additional adjustment may be required in future advisories. In summary, the confidence in the track forecast remains quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 17.1N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 17.2N 120.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 18.0N 123.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 19.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 142036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 ...KIKO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 119.3W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 119.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward or west- northwestward course at a slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the day or so, followed by little change in strength Sunday night and Monday. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

...KIKO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of Kiko was located near 17.1, -119.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.