National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Lorenzo was located near 25.1, -44.6 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 925 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 290832 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 44.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 110SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 44.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 44.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.4N 44.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.9N 42.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.2N 40.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 200SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.4N 32.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 110NW. 34 KT...270NE 280SE 240SW 220NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 47.8N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 53.5N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 44.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 290832 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 ...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 44.6W ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 44.6 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the north-northeast is expected later today, followed by a faster northeast motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Lorenzo is expected to move near or just west of the Azores late Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Lorenzo is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane as it approaches the Azores. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 290520
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 02:36:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 03:24:40 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 290235 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 Lorenzo has rapidly strengthened this evening. An eyewall replacement cycle completed earlier today, with a recent SSMIS microwave overpass showing that a new eyewall about 30 n mi in diameter now completely encircles the eye. The cold cloud tops surrounding the eye have expanded, with a solid ring of temperatures measuring colder than minus 70 degrees Celsius. In addition, the eye has cleared, with satellite derived cloud-top temperatures now above 15 degrees Celsius. Throughout the evening, the objective and subjective intensity estimates have climbed, with 0130 UTC special classifications from TAFB and SAB as well as a recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate unanimously agreeing on a 140-kt initial intensity. This makes Lorenzo an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane. The initial motion is now northward at 9 kt. Lorenzo will be steered north through a break between two subtropical ridges through tonight, with a turn to the north-northeast expected on Sunday. After Sunday, Lorenzo will begin to get caught up in increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This will cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward through the end of the forecast period. The official track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and is near the middle of the consensus aids. Lorenzo will likely peak in intensity overnight as it remains in the current favorable environment. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible on Sunday mainly due to eyewall replacement cycles. By Sunday night, Lorenzo will begin to feel the effects of some southwesterly shear ahead of the approaching trough, while it also moves over waters of lower oceanic heat content. These factors should induce a steady weakening trend through 48 hours. After that time, SSTs below 26 C should cause a faster weakening trend. By 72 hours, the cyclone will begin interacting with the approaching trough and an associated cold front, which will begin a transition to an extratropical low. This transition is forecast to complete by 120 hours, but it could happen a little sooner than that. The official forecast was increased through the first 48 hours due to the increase in initial intensity, and then blends to near the previous official forecast by 72 hours. With this latest advisory intensity, Lorenzo becomes the strongest hurricane in history this far north and east in the Atlantic basin. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 24.2N 44.9W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 25.5N 44.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 27.1N 44.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 30.8N 42.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 36.7N 35.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 03/0000Z 45.0N 23.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 04/0000Z 52.2N 10.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 290234 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 77(90) X(90) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 63(64) X(64) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) X(35) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 290234 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 44.9W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 110SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 390SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 44.9W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.5N 44.7W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.1N 44.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 30.8N 42.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 36.7N 35.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 45.0N 23.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 52.2N 10.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 44.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 290234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 ...LARGE AND POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 LORENZO BECOMES THE STRONGEST HURRICANE THIS FAR NORTH AND EAST IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 44.9W ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 44.9 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the north-northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the northeast by Monday. A faster northeast motion is expected by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible through Sunday. A weakening trend is forecast to begin Sunday night. However, Lorenzo is expected to be a large and potent hurricane as is approaches the Azores in a few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Lorenzo was located near 25.1, -44.6 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 925 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.

Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 290006 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Special Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 The satellite presentation of Lorenzo has improved throughout this evening, and the ring of cloud tops surrounding the eye have become wider and colder. This has resulted in both subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates increasing to a 6.5 on the Dvorak scale, indicative of a 125 kt hurricane. Based on this data, a special advisory is being issued at this time to increase the initial intensity, and the 12-hour and 24-hour forecast wind speeds. No other changes were required to the previous track or intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0000Z 23.8N 45.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 00:04:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 00:04:24 GMT

Issued at 0000 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 290002 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0000 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 AT 0000Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 85(85) 1(86) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) X(52) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 290002 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Special Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 ...LORENZO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 45.0W ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 45.0 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast beginning Monday or Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will be approaching the Azores on Tuesday. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and early Sunday. Lorenzo is expected to gradually weaken Sunday night through Tuesday, but it will remain a large and potent hurricane while it approaches the Azores. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

...LORENZO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING... As of 8:00 PM AST Sat Sep 28 the center of Lorenzo was located near 23.8, -45.0 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 942 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Issued at 0000 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 290000 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0000 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 45.0W AT 29/0000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 110SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 45.0W AT 29/0000Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

000
ABNT20 KNHC 282314
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 20:41:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 21:24:40 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 282040 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission has been invaluable in helping us to observe reintensification after Lorenzo's eyewall replacement. The plane measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 126 kt and SFMR surface winds as high as 112 kt. In addition, the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate is 114 kt. These data support increasing the initial intensity to 115 kt, which makes Lorenzo a category 4 hurricane again. The plane also reported a circular eye 34 n mi wide and a central pressure around 950 mb. Lorenzo is moving northward, or 355/9 kt, through a gap in the subtropical ridge. The western Atlantic ridge is becoming stronger than the eastern Atlantic ridge, and this should help to nudge Lorenzo north-northeastward between 24-48 hours. After that period, a deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic should turn Lorenzo northeastward, with the hurricane's forward motion accelerating as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The updated NHC track forecast has been placed near the HCCA model and the other consensus aids, which keeps it very close to the previous official forecast, at least through day 4. Some southward adjustment of the track was made at day 5 based on the latest global model guidance. Fluctuations in Lorenzo's intensity are possible over the next day or so. However, on the whole, moderate westerly shear and decreasing oceanic heat content ahead of the hurricane are expected to contribute to a very gradual weakening trend over the next 3 days. After day 3, Lorenzo is forecast to begin interacting with an approaching cold front from the northwest, which would start extratropical transition. The global models indicate that the transition should be complete soon after 96 hours, so for the moment the advisory continues to show tropical status on day 4. Faster weakening is expected during and after extratropical transition, and the updated NHC intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the previous forecast on days 4 and 5. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 23.3N 45.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 282039 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 86(86) X(86) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) X(53) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER BERG