National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 010242 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 ...LORENZO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GROWING IN SIZE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 41.2W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM WSW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 41.2 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). The hurricane should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slight weakening is anticipated before Lorenzo moves near the Azores, with faster weakening expected on Thursday. Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...LORENZO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GROWING IN SIZE... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Lorenzo was located near 32.0, -41.2 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 010242 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 44(44) 56(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X 3( 3) 94(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) 70(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 010241 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 41.2W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. 50 KT.......170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT.......270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 480SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 41.2W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 41.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.1N 39.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. 50 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 130NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.8N 34.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 110NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.9N 27.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. 50 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 49.0N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 30NW. 50 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 55.0N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 80SE 80SW 30NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 240SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 41.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 23:55:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 21:24:41 GMT

Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 302354 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 34A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 ...LORENZO REMAINS ON COURSE TOWARDS THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 41.8W ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 41.8 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later tonight, with an increasing forward speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight. A weakening trend is expected to resume on Tuesday. Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...LORENZO REMAINS ON COURSE TOWARDS THE AZORES... As of 8:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Lorenzo was located near 31.2, -41.8 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

942
ABNT20 KNHC 302333
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

A broad area of low pressure has formed over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea between Grand Cayman and Jamaica, and is producing a
small area of showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of
this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves to the
west-northwest near the Yucatan peninsula in a couple of days, and
across the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers near and east of the
southeastern Bahamas are associated with a weak surface trough.
Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves to the northeast at 5 to 10 mph, well south and
east of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 20:33:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 21:24:41 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 302032 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 The wind field of Lorenzo continues to expand, with a trio of scatterometer overpasses showing that tropical-storm-force winds now extend up to 270 n mi from the center, while hurricane-force winds can be found up to 90 n mi from the center. A cloud-covered eye has been apparent throughout the day and cloud-top temperatures surrounding the eye have remained fairly consistent. The most recent Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB suggest Lorenzo is maintaining its strength at 90 kt, which will remain the initial intensity for this advisory. A drifting NOAA buoy near the eyewall of Lorenzo recently reported a pressure of 964.8 mb, supporting the minimum central pressure of 957 mb. Lorenzo continues moving north-northeastward at 13 kt, around the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to its southeast. Over the next couple of days Lorenzo will be accelerated northeastward by increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough amplifying across the central Atlantic. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo near the western Azores late Tuesday and early Wednesday. The forecast track confidence remains high through 72 hours. After that time, global models have come into a little better agreement on the future track of Lorenzo, with a turn to the right toward Ireland or the U.K. as a weakening extratropical low. The official forecast track is just a little to the right of the previous one and lies near the consensus aids. The environment surrounding Lorenzo is not expected to change much through tonight, and therefore the intensity should remain fairly steady. On Tuesday, the hurricane should begin gradually weakening as drier air entrains into the circulation and the system moves over progressively cooler waters. By 48 hours, the interaction with the approaching trough, an associated cold front, and very strong southwesterly shear will help transition Lorenzo into an extratropical low. This transition is expected to be complete by 72 hours. The low is then expected to weaken and dissipate shortly after 96 hours. The official forecast was increased through the first 48 hours to reflect a more steady intensity in the near term, and then is blended close to the previous forecast after that time. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for the Azores. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 30.9N 42.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 32.8N 40.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 36.1N 36.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 40.3N 31.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 45.9N 25.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 55.2N 14.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1800Z 56.3N 10.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 302031 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 1( 1) 96(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) 84(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) 52(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 302031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 ...VERY LARGE LORENZO HEADING TOWARDS THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 42.1W ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 42.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later tonight, with an increasing forward speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight. A weakening trend is expected to resume on Tuesday. Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

...VERY LARGE LORENZO HEADING TOWARDS THE AZORES... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Lorenzo was located near 30.9, -42.1 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 302030 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 42.1W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 50 KT.......130NE 120SE 130SW 130NW. 34 KT.......220NE 270SE 200SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 360SE 390SW 510NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 42.1W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 42.6W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.8N 40.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 130SW 130NW. 34 KT...220NE 270SE 200SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.1N 36.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 130SW 130NW. 34 KT...250NE 270SE 200SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 40.3N 31.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 50 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 120NW. 34 KT...270NE 290SE 230SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 45.9N 25.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. 50 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 120NW. 34 KT...270NE 290SE 230SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 55.2N 14.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 300SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 56.3N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 42.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 17:39:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 15:24:43 GMT

Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 301739 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 33A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 200 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 ...LORENZO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 42.4W ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 42.4 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later today, with an increasing forward speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through Wednesday. Lorenzo is expected to transition to an extratropical low by Thursday. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

...LORENZO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS... As of 2:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Lorenzo was located near 30.3, -42.4 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301707
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 15:03:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 15:24:43 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 301502 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 Lorenzo continues to maintain its strength. A cloud filled eye is evident in infrared satellite imagery, while convection is attempting to wrap around a break in the southern portion of the hurricane. This is indicating that for the time being, the cyclone is fighting off some of the dry air entraining into it from the southwest. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain at 90 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. Lorenzo continues north-northeastward, now at 13 kt, around the northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Over the next couple of days Lorenzo will be accelerated northeastward by increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough amplifying across the central Atlantic. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo near or just west of the western Azores late Tuesday and early Wednesday. The forecast track confidence is high through 72 hours, but decreases significantly thereafter, as forecast models continue to differ on their handling of the steering flow. By that time, the steering flow may break down as the trough to the west of Lorenzo de-amplifies, while an extratropical low quickly approaches from the west. Some of the forecast models turn Lorenzo north ahead of the approaching low as they begin to interact, other solutions turn Lorenzo or its remnants to the east in the westerlies, with limited interaction with this low. The official forecast track is very close to the previous one and to the consensus aids, which lies in between these two scenarios. Lorenzo should gradually weaken over the next couple of days while drier air continues to get pulled into the circulation and the system moves over progressively cooler waters. After 48 hours, the interaction with the approaching trough, an associated cold front, and very strong southwesterly shear will help transition Lorenzo into an extratropical low. This transition is expected to be complete by 72 hours. The low is then expected to either dissipate or become absorbed by another extratropical low by day 5. The official forecast intensity is very similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement with the consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for the Azores. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 30.0N 42.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 31.7N 41.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 34.5N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 38.1N 34.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 43.3N 28.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 53.5N 17.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1200Z 58.2N 11.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto