National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 282039 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 45.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 110SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 390SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 45.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 282039 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT LORENZO HAS RESTRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 45.0W ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 45.0 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast beginning Monday or Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will be approaching the Azores on Tuesday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next day or so. Lorenzo is expected to gradually weaken through Tuesday, but it will remain a large and potent hurricane while it approaches the Azores. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the plane is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT LORENZO HAS RESTRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 28 the center of Lorenzo was located near 23.3, -45.0 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 281712
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 14:49:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 15:24:49 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 281447 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 81(81) 2(83) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 2(52) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 281447 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 Lorenzo appears to be in the final stages of an eyewall replacement. 37-GHz GCOM imagery from overnight suggested that a smaller inner eyewall was embedded within a larger eye, and the new eyewall now extends 40-45 n mi from the center of circulation. An eye has also reappeared in GOES-16 visible and infrared satellite imagery during the past several hours. Based on Dvorak intensity estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT estimate of T5.3/97 kt, Lorenzo's intensity is still estimated to be 100 kt. Although the hurricane seems to be wobbling a bit, fixes indicate that it has generally turned northward with an initial motion of 350/9 kt. The track forecast remains straightforward, with very little spread among the models and their ensembles. Lorenzo is expected to be nudged north-northeastward and then northeastward starting in 36 hours by strong ridging building over the western Atlantic. The northeastward motion is expected to increase on day 3 when Lorenzo is picked up by a strong deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic, and that acceleration is forecast to continue through day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids and is very similar to the previous forecast. A little bit of west-southwesterly shear continues over Lorenzo, but it's not strong enough to disrupt the circulation significantly. Only a very slow, gradual weakening is forecast during the next 3 days, matching what is indicated by many of the intensity models. Extratropical transition is expected to have begun by day 4 while Lorenzo is moving near the Azores, but that process is not expected to be complete until day 5. Although Lorenzo's winds are forecast to decrease a bit during the extratropical transition due to stronger shear and cold waters, the cyclone is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds through the end of the forecast period. Lorenzo's wind field will remain large, and the hurricane-force wind radii are expected to grow in size during the next couple of days. In addition, large swells continue to radiate outward away from the hurricane and will reach much of the western and northern side of the Atlantic basin in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 22.5N 44.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 23.8N 44.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 25.6N 44.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 27.1N 43.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 33.3N 39.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 40.5N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 51.0N 16.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 281447 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 44.8W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT.......240NE 190SE 120SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 44.8W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 44.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.8N 44.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 190SE 130SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.6N 44.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 200SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.1N 43.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 55NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 65NE 65SE 55SW 55NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...210NE 220SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.3N 39.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 210SW 190NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 40.5N 29.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 51.0N 16.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 44.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 281447 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 ...LORENZO TURNS NORTHWARD, STILL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO RADIATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 44.8W ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 44.8 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday morning. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast beginning Monday or Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Only very gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Lorenzo is forecast to remain a strong hurricane when it turns toward northeastward towards the Azores. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...LORENZO TURNS NORTHWARD, STILL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO RADIATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 28 the center of Lorenzo was located near 22.5, -44.8 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

160
ABNT20 KNHC 281121
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280856 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 Lorenzo's tilt has grown this morning. AMSR2 imagery at 0505 UTC showed a 20 n mi displacement between the low- and mid-level centers of the hurricane, a consequence of persistent westerly wind shear. Satellite-based intensity estimates vary greatly, from 77 to 110 kt, so the intensity is set to 100 kt as a compromise of all available data. Despite the decrease in Lorenzo's maximum winds during the past 24 hours, earlier ASCAT-C data showed that its hurricane-force wind field has expanded, and now reaches up to 45 n mi to the northeast of the center. The lower initial intensity resulted in a slightly lower intensity forecast through most of the period. The wind shear affecting the cyclone is forecast to continue, and a slow decrease in Lorenzo's peak winds is still expected during the next several days. The official intensity forecast is very near the intensity consensus. Despite the expected decrease in intensity, the hurricane is not forecast to decrease in size, and in fact Lorenzo's hurricane-force wind field could increase further by next week. Because of that, users are urged to not focus on the exact intensity of Lorenzo since the cyclone will likely remain a powerful storm well into next week. By 120 h, all of the global models indicate that Lorenzo will become post-tropical, and so does the NHC forecast. The aforementioned microwave data was very helpful in identifying Lorenzo's center location. The hurricane has continued to move left of the forecast track, and the initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. Despite Lorenzo's recent tendency to move farther west than anticipated, the hurricane is still forecast to turn northward soon. After continuing northward and north-northeastward for a day or two, Lorenzo should accelerate toward the northeast ahead of a deep mid-latitude trough approaching from the west by mid-week. The NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly left for the first 48 h to account for Lorenzo's recent motion, but it is very similar to the previous forecast at 72 h and beyond. The models are in excellent agreement for the first 3 days of the forecast but the uncertainty grows by the end of the period, primarily due to differences in the forecast forward speed of the cyclone as it recurves and becomes post-tropical. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 21.4N 44.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 22.7N 44.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 24.5N 44.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 26.0N 44.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 27.6N 43.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 31.5N 40.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 38.0N 32.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 48.0N 19.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 08:46:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 09:24:45 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 280845 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 28(75) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 26(44) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 280844 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 ...LARGE LORENZO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 44.8W ABOUT 1560 MI...2510 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 44.8 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is anticipated today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, however, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. Lorenzo is a large hurricane and hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...LARGE LORENZO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 28 the center of Lorenzo was located near 21.4, -44.8 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280842 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 44.8W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT.......120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT.......250NE 170SE 120SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 330SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 44.8W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 44.6W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.7N 44.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 170SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.5N 44.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 170SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.0N 44.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.6N 43.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 210SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 31.5N 40.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 230SE 180SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.0N 32.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 48.0N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 44.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280502
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 02:38:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 03:24:35 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280236 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Lorenzo's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate this evening. A series of SSMI and GMI microwave overpasses revealed inner core erosion, particularly in the south portion. The images also showed a significant south to north vertical tilt of the cyclone, indicative of the moderate southwesterly shear undercutting the impressive upper-tropospheric diffluent flow. A blend of all the available subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, as well as an earlier SATCON analysis, yields an initial intensity of 105 kt for this advisory. Lorenzo will remain over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures for the next 3 days. Nonetheless, the stiff southwesterly shear should inhibit strengthening, although there is a slight chance of short-term fluctuations in intensity caused by eyewall replacement cycles. Beyond the 72 hour period, Lorenzo is expected to encounter stronger mid-latitude westerlies, move over cooler waters, and undergo extratropical transition as it interacts with a baroclinic zone moving over the central north Atlantic. The NHC forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus and Florida State Superensemble intensity models. The aforementioned microwave images also indicate that Lorenzo has been moving a little to the left of track, and the initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 335/8 kt. The song remains the same, no change in the track forecast philosophy. Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the eastern Atlantic. Around mid-period, Lorenzo is forecast to accelerate toward the northeast, in the mid-latitude westerly flow, in response to a deep-layer major shortwave trough approaching from the north-central Atlantic. The track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one and is close to the various consensus aids. The wind radii have been adjusted using 2308 UTC METOP-B scatterometer data. The forecast wind radii, beyond the 48 hour period, is based primarily on the RVCN global consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 20.8N 44.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 23.7N 44.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 25.4N 44.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 27.0N 43.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 30.7N 41.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 36.5N 34.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 45.5N 22.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts