National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 270847 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 551 WTNT32 KNHC 270846 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...KAREN HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR NOW... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 61.2W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 61.2 West. Karen is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is forecast to continue this morning, but Karen is forecast to become nearly stationary by tonight or early Saturday. A westward motion is then anticipated by the end of the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Karen is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...KAREN HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR NOW... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Karen was located near 28.3, -61.2 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 270844 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 61.2W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 61.2W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.8N 60.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 29.1N 59.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 29.3N 60.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 29.3N 61.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 29.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 61.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270516
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karen, located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Bermuda, and on Hurricane Lorenzo, located over the central tropical
Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 02:35:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 03:24:32 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 02:34:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 03:31:25 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 270233 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 The center of the circulation of Karen moved near or over the NOAA buoy 41049 where a wind shift and a very modest drop in pressure occurred. Currently, the winds are decreasing and pressures are rising at the buoy. The data from the buoy and recent satellite imagery continue to indicate that the circulation remains elongated with the low-level center located on the eastern edge of a convective mass. However, some curved rainbands are developing on the eastern portion of the circulation as we speak. T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are 2.5 on the Dvorak scale and support a generous initial intensity of 35 kt. A very recent partial ASCAT pass measured winds of only 30 kt, but the swath did not cover the area where the plane measured stronger winds earlier today. In about a day, the upper-level environment will become increasingly hostile with the development of northwesterly shear, and thereafter, the shear will become even stronger from the southwest. With this anticipated upper-level wind pattern, Karen should weaken and become devoid of deep convection in 36 hours or so and degenerate into a remnant low. Karen has slowed down and is now moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 7 kt. The steering flow is forecast to change in 24 hours as a ridge builds to the north of Karen, and the cyclone, or most likely its remnants, should begin to move slowly westward. The system is anticipated to degenerate into a westward moving trough in 3 days or so as forecast by global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 27.8N 62.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 28.3N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 28.5N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 28.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0000Z 28.3N 61.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 28.0N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 243 WTNT43 KNHC 270233 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Lorenzo has intensified even more this evening, with a clear eye characterized by warm temperatures of up to 17 degrees Celsius. The eye is now completely surrounded by a ring of convection with cold cloud tops less than minus 70 degrees Celsius. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB, as well as the objective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT unanimously support increasing the initial intensity to 125 kt. Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with tropical storm force winds extending over 200 n mi from the center in the northern semicircle, and a cirrus cloud canopy that spans greater than a 10 degree latitude by 10 degree longitude area. The initial motion is now north-northwest, or 330/12 kt. Model guidance is in very good agreement throughout the 5 day period on the future track of Lorenzo. The hurricane will move through a break in the subtropical ridge currently to its northwest over the next couple of days, gradually turning to the north then northeast as it rounds the periphery of a ridge to its east. Late in the forecast period, Lorenzo will begin to accelerate as it gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. The model guidance made a slight shift to the left since the previous advisory, but since the same guidance shifted right earlier today, I did not want to make much of a change to the track. The official forecast track is very near the previous one, and is now on the right side of the consensus guidance. The environment around Lorenzo is expected to change little over the next day or so. Both dynamical and statistical guidance are suggesting that the hurricane is nearing peak intensity. Therefore only fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are expected through about Friday night. Over the weekend, some moderate westerly shear ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough could begin to slowly weaken the cyclone. Late in the forecast period, the combination of strong upper level southwesterly winds and cooler sea surface temperatures should cause a faster weakening trend. The official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and a little higher than most of the guidance through the first 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.6N 41.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 19.1N 42.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 21.0N 43.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 22.7N 43.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 24.4N 43.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 27.8N 41.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 31.8N 39.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 37.5N 33.2W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 270232 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 270232 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...EXTREMELY POWERFUL LORENZO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...SWELLS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 41.5W ABOUT 1660 MI...2670 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 41.5 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn to the northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible through Friday night. A slow weakening trend is expected over the weekend. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo will affect portions of the northeastern coast of South America beginning tonight, and will affect portions of the Windward Islands beginning on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL LORENZO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...SWELLS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 26 the center of Lorenzo was located near 17.6, -41.5 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 939 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 270232 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 270231 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...KAREN FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 62.1W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 62.1 West. Karen is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), but is expected to become nearly stationary by Friday night or early Saturday. It should then begin to move westward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Karen is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

...KAREN FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 26 the center of Karen was located near 27.8, -62.1 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270231 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 41.5W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. 34 KT.......220NE 120SE 80SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 330SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 41.5W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 41.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.1N 42.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.0N 43.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.7N 43.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.4N 43.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.8N 41.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.8N 39.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 37.5N 33.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 41.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 270231 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 62.1W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 62.1W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 62.4W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.3N 61.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.5N 60.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.3N 61.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 28.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 62.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

000
ABNT20 KNHC 262315
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karen, located several hundred miles south-southeast of
Bermuda, and on Hurricane Lorenzo, located over the central tropical
Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 20:49:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 21:31:25 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 262048 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Lorenzo has continued to intensify this afternoon, as the 20 n mi wide eye has become better defined and the cloud tops in the eyewall have gotten colder. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 115-125 kt range, so the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 120 kt. The hurricane has excellent outflow in all directions except to the west, where it is starting to interact with an upper-level trough. The hurricane has turned toward the northwest since the last advisory, with the 12-h average motion now 310/10 kt and the shorter term motion is even more toward the north. Lorenzo is approaching a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a series of mid-latitude troughs to the northwest of the hurricane, and the track guidance models remain in excellent agreement that Lorenzo should recurve through the break during the forecast period. After 24-36 h, the guidance has shifted a little more to the right, and this part of the new track forecast has been nudged a little to the right. Data from the SHIPS model suggest that Lorenzo will be in an area of maximum potential intensities of 125-135 kt for the next 3-4 days. This suggests that the current intensification should end soon as the actual intensity approaches or reaches those speeds. Fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are expected during the 12-24 h period. The global models suggest that Lorenzo's interaction with the aforementioned upper-level trough should increase during recurvature, which should cause increased shear and a gradual weakening of the cyclone. As Lorenzo subsequently moves northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies, increased shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should lead to at least a continued slow weakening. The new intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous forecast. While its exact ranking will be determined later, Lorenzo is one of the largest and most powerful hurricanes of record for the central tropical Atlantic, with the only comparable hurricane in recent times near there being Gabrielle of 1989. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 16.5N 40.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 17.6N 41.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 19.6N 43.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 21.3N 43.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 22.9N 43.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 26.5N 42.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 30.5N 39.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 35.5N 35.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven