National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 26 the center of Karen was located near 25.5, -63.5 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 260831 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 63.5W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 63.5W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 63.7W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.0N 62.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.9N 61.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.0N 60.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.9N 60.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 27.0N 65.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 26.8N 67.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 63.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260503
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karen, located several hundred miles north-northeast of Puerto
Rico, and on Hurricane Lorenzo, located over the eastern tropical
Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 02:37:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 03:31:37 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260235 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 A small eye has been intermittently appearing in infrared satellite imagery over the past few hours, and a recent WINDSAT microwave overpass showed that the inner-core of Lorenzo is trying to consolidate. There is still some dry air wrapping in toward the center of circulation as seen in an SSMIS overpass at 2020 UTC. This could be the reason why the hurricane has not been able to develop a well-defined eye as of yet. An ASCAT-B scatterometer pass this evening showed a still expanding wind field associated with Lorenzo, and the 50-kt winds now extend up to 90 n mi from the center in the northern semicircle. A blend of the subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. Based on the improving inner-core structure, large central dense overcast, and an expanding cirrus shield around the hurricane, it is believed that the dry air that has been entrained near the center will mix out soon. This should allow for the eyewall to completely develop and Lorenzo should reach major hurricane intensity within the next 24 hours. Lorenzo will continue over warm waters and in a light shear environment during the next couple of days, which should allow for some additional strengthening. By 72 hours, increasing shear due to west to southwest winds aloft ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough should begin to weaken the hurricane. The official intensity forecast is very near the previous one, and is on the high end of the guidance through 72 hours. Lorenzo is moving west-northwest at 13 kt to the south of a mid-level ridge. The model guidance is in very good agreement on a break developing in the ridge between 45W-50W in the next couple of days, which should result in a turn to the northwest. From day 3-5, the cyclone is expected to turn north then northeast around the periphery of the mid-level ridge to its east. The official forecast was nudged just a little to the right of the previous one starting at 36 h and is on the left side of tightly clustered consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 14.7N 38.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 15.2N 39.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 16.8N 41.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 20.4N 43.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 23.8N 43.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 27.5N 42.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 31.9N 39.1W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 02:35:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 03:24:40 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 260235 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260235 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...LORENZO STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 38.1W ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 38.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the northwest is forecast to occur on Thursday, followed by a turn to the north by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane on Thursday, with some additional strengthening possible through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

...LORENZO STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Lorenzo was located near 14.7, -38.1 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 260234 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 38.1W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 90SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 280SE 210SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 38.1W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 37.6W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.2N 39.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.8N 41.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.4N 43.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.8N 43.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 27.5N 42.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.9N 39.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 38.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 260234 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Karen's cloud pattern is basically shapeless and consists of a tight swirl of low clouds located at the northern end of a curved-convective band. Dvorak T-numbers barely support 35 kt, but it is assumed that a few spots of tropical storm-force-wind are still occuring in the southeast quadrant. Karen has had enough time to strengthen, and it is doubtful that it will do it in the future. The cyclone is heading toward an unfavorable environment and each consecutive run of the global models show a weaker and weaker cyclone. My predecessor wisely stated in the advisory "it is time to put more weight in the global models" and I will do so in this one. On this basis, the NHC forecast no longer calls for strengthening, and maintains Karen generously with 35 kt for the next 2 days or so. It also calls for weakening thereafter. Karen is forecast to be a remnant low in about 4 days, but is very likely that this could occur much sooner. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north- northeast or 015 degrees at 13 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the flow between a mid-level trough over the Bahamas and a subtropical ridge to the east. In two days, the steering flow is expected to collapse, and Karen will likely meander for a day or so. A ridge will then build to the north, and since Karen will be weak and shallow, the cyclone or its remnants will move westward, steered by the trade winds south of the ridge and toward very hostile upper-level winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 24.4N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 26.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 27.5N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 28.3N 60.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 27.5N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 26.6N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 26.5N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 260233 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 260233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 63.6W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 63.6 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A north- northeastward to northeastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Friday. Karen or its remnants are then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches tonight across the Virgin Islands, with isolated storm totals of 5 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Karen was located near 24.4, -63.6 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 260233 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 63.6W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 63.6W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.0N 62.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.3N 60.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.5N 61.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.6N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 63.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

505
ABNT20 KNHC 252303
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karen, located a few hundred miles north-northeast of Puerto
Rico, and on Tropical Storm Lorenzo, located over the eastern
tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center has issued the
last advisory on post-tropical cyclone Jerry.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 20:42:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 21:38:19 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 252041 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with the central dense overcast getting larger while a large complex of outer bands continues in the southeastern semicircle. In addition, a AMSR-2 overpass near 1530 UTC suggested there is at least a partial eyewall or convective ring near the center. The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus intensity estimate. The hurricane still shows good cirrus outflow in all directions, and it still appears some dry air is entraining into the system in the northwestern quadrant. The initial motion is now 285/16. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the hurricane west-northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as a break develops in the ridge between 45W-50W. Lorenzo is subsequently forecast to turn northward into the break by 96 h and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h. Since the last advisory, the track guidance has shifted a little to the right after 36 h. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track, but after 36 h it now lies a little to the left of the center of the guidance envelope. Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear environment during the next three days, with the only negative factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air. The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening for the next 36 h or so, but the the chances of rapid intensification in the various statistical indices have gone down since the previous advisory. The new intensity forecast will call for 36 more hours of intensification, and it continues to lie near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The intensity forecast follows the general trend of the guidance in showing little change in strength between 36-96 h, although fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles during this time. After that time, Lorenzo is likely to encounter southwesterly shear, and thus some weakening is forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 14.5N 36.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 15.0N 38.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.1N 40.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 23.0N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 26.5N 43.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 31.0N 40.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 252040 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 252040 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...LORENZO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 36.9W ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 36.9 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the northwest is expected by Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven