National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

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Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 10:13:42 GMT

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Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 250857 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Deep convection has continued to increase in coverage and intensity near the center of Lorenzo during the past several hours. There have been no good microwave passes over the cyclone since yesterday, however, a partial SSMIS pass showed hints that a mid-level eye is forming. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. Lorenzo is the 5th hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season. The SHIPS and DTOPS rapid intensification probability models both show that there is a greater than 50 percent chance that Lorenzo will strengthen by 25 kt or more during the next 24 hours. The large size of the cyclone appears to be the only obvious inhibiting factor to rapid intensification since the environment is otherwise quite favorable for continued strengthening. The NHC forecast now shows Lorenzo becoming a major hurricane in 36 hours, faster than previously anticipated. By 72 h and beyond, most of the guidance keeps Lorenzo in a nearly steady state. In reality, most strong hurricanes have some short-term fluctuations in intensity, but such fluctuations are nearly impossible to forecast this far out in time. Regardless of its exact intensity, confidence is high that Lorenzo will be a large and powerful hurricane over the eastern and central Atlantic through the rest of this week. No changes of significance were made to the track forecast. Lorenzo is still forecast to move west-northwestward for the next day or so, before turning northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A turn toward the north is anticipated by the end of the forecast period. The models are still in fairly good agreement on the track of the hurricane, and the NHC forecast is between the consensus aids HCCA and TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 13.6N 33.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 14.0N 36.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 14.7N 38.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 15.9N 40.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 17.5N 41.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 21.1N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 24.0N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 27.4N 43.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 250856 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/RAMOS

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 250856 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...LORENZO BECOMES THE FIFTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 33.9W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 33.9 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward the northwest is expected by Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

...LORENZO BECOMES THE FIFTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Lorenzo was located near 13.6, -33.9 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 250855 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 33.9W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 30SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 33.9W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 33.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.0N 36.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.7N 38.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 90SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.9N 40.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 41.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.1N 44.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 24.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 27.4N 43.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 33.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY/RAMOS

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 08:55:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 08:55:51 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 250854 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Jerry has lacked organized deep convection since around 1500 UTC yesterday. It is therefore now designated as a post-tropical cyclone. However, a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Bermuda, and advisories will continue to be issued on Jerry until it no longer poses any threat to the island. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft continued to fly through Jerry after the last advisory. The plane reported that Jerry's wind field has become quite asymmetric, with no tropical-storm-force winds in the western half of the cyclone. That said, on its last pass through the southeast quadrant of the cyclone the plane reported max flight level winds of 55 kt at 925 mb and believable SFMR winds of 40 kt. The intensity of Jerry is therefore maintained at 40 kt for this advisory. With no deep convection to sustain it, the cyclone should gradually spin down during the next few days. The dynamical models indicate that Jerry will dissipate in about 4 days and the NHC forecast does as well. A mid-latitude trough to the north has caused Jerry to turn northeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 055/6 kt. The models are in good agreement that the post-tropical low will continue generally northeastward today and tomorrow, steered by low-level southwesterly flow. On this track, the cyclone will pass very near Bermuda later today. The models are in excellent agreement on the track of Jerry, and only small adjustments were made to the previous NHC track forecast. Key Messages: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda later today. Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of Bermuda during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 31.8N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 25/1800Z 32.3N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 26/0600Z 33.0N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 26/1800Z 33.9N 61.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 34.6N 59.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z 34.0N 55.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 250853 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 13 37(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) BERMUDA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 250853 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...JERRY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 67.9W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 67.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued northeasterly motion is expected through today, followed by a turn toward the east on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by this afternoon and could continue through this evening. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 inch or less of rainfall across Bermuda through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...JERRY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Jerry was located near 31.8, -67.9 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 250852 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 67.9W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 67.9W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.3N 66.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.0N 64.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.9N 61.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.6N 59.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.0N 55.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 67.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250852 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 Karen's convection has increased significantly and become better organized since the previous advisory. The well-defined low-level circulation center that previously had been fully exposed now has intense convection with cloud tops of -85C to -90C almost completely encircling the center at times. During the last leg of an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, an 850-mb flight-level wind of 46 kt and SFMR surface winds of 37 kt were observed in the southeastern quadrant, suggesting that Karen may have weakened slightly during an earlier convective hiatus. However, the recent increase in deep convection over the center, along with a pronounced increase in the Doppler velocities and the development of a smaller radius of maximum winds of less than 10 nmi above 20,000 ft, suggest that Karen has likely strengthened. For now, however, the intensity is being maintained at 40 kt. The secondary mid-level circulation that had developed north of Puerto Rico several hours ago has since weakened based on San Juan Doppler radar data and satellite images. Now that deep convection has redeveloped, resulting in a stronger and deeper the vortex column, the motion has steadied off in a northerly direction of 360/12 kt over the past 6 hours. A northward motion is forecast to continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast by this afternoon. A north-northeastward to northeastward motion accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected in the 12-48 hour period. By 72 hours, steering currents are forecast to collapse and Karen is expected to stall or make a clockwise loop. By 96 and beyond, the global models forecast that a ridge will build eastward from the southeastern United States to Bermuda, forcing Karen in a slow westward to west-southwestward direction. The new NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple consensus track model TVCN, which is about midway between the corrected-consensus models FSSE located to the north and NOAA-HCCA to the south. The intensity forecast remains somewhat perplexing with the dynamical global and regional models showing no strengthening for the next 4 days, followed by weakening and even dissipation by day 5, whereas the GFS- and ECMWF-based statistical-dynamical models show slow but steady strengthening during the forecast period with Karen becoming a hurricane by 120 hours. The main reasons for global models weakening the cyclone is due to the low- and upper-level circulations decoupling in about 3 days, followed by very dry mid-level overspreading of the low-level circulation, shutting off convective development. The problem with that scenario is that Karen will be moving into very low vertical shear conditions and underneath an upper-level anticyclone by 36 hours, which favors strengthening since the cyclone will also be sitting over 29 deg C water of considerable depth. For now, the new official intensity forecast remains a compromise between the weak dynamical model solutions and the stronger SHIPS intensity forecasts, which is a little above the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE. Key Messages: 1. Karen will continue to produce rainfall causing flash floods and mudslides across Puerto Rico, Vieques and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today even as the center moves away from the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 20.5N 65.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 22.3N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 24.5N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 27.1N 61.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 26.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 25.9N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 250852 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250852 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ALL OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 65.2W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 65.2 West. Karen is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A motion toward the north-northeast is forecast to occur by this afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move farther away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches. These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Some areas in southeastern Puerto Rico have already received up to 5 inches of rainfall, which has caused some flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ALL OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 25 the center of Karen was located near 20.5, -65.2 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250850 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.2W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 65.2W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 65.2W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.3N 64.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.5N 63.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.4N 63.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.1N 61.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 26.3N 64.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 25.9N 67.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 65.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2019 06:00:53 GMT


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