National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 261452 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...LORENZO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 40.2W ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 40.2 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Lorenzo is forecast to turn toward the northwest later today, and this motion should continue through Friday. A turn toward the north is expected Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible today, and fluctuations in intensity are expected tonight through Friday night. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...LORENZO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 26 the center of Lorenzo was located near 15.4, -40.2 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 261452 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 40.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. 34 KT.......220NE 120SE 80SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 40.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 39.8W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.7N 41.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.2N 43.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 43.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.2N 43.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N 41.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.0N 37.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 40.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karen, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda, and on
Hurricane Lorenzo, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 10:06:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 10:06:58 GMT

Issued at 1000 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 261003 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1000 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 AT 1000Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 261003 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Special Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Shortly after the issuance of the 0900 UTC advisory, Lorenzo's eye quickly and drastically became more apparent in conventional satellite imagery. The slightly ragged but clearing eye of the hurricane is surrounded by very cold cloud tops, and it has become clear that Lorenzo is rapidly intensifying. A 0900 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification of 6.0/6.0 (115 kt) was used as the primary basis for increasing the intensity of Lorenzo. Because objective fixes from just a few hours ago were much lower, the intensity of the hurricane has been increased, perhaps conservatively, to 110 kt. Since this is 10 kt above the previous 12-h forecast, a special advisory is required to update the intensity forecast. Additional strengthening is possible later today. Earlier intensity guidance indicated that Lorenzo's intensity should level off in a day or so, though none of the guidance correctly anticipated the rate at which the hurricane has strengthened this morning. Now that the hurricane has a closed eyewall, fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles are also possible, though this is not explicitly reflected in the updated forecast. By the end of the forecast period, the updated NHC forecast is relaxed to the original forecast and shows some gradual weakening. Further adjustments, especially at 72 h and beyond, may be required later this morning. No changes were made to the track forecast, which is based on the previous regular advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1000Z 15.2N 39.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 1000 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 261003 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1000 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 39.3W AT 26/1000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 90SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 280SE 210SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 39.3W AT 26/1000Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 38.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 39.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 261003 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Special Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...LORENZO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 39.3W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM AST (1000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 39.3 West. The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). Lorenzo is forecast to turn toward the northwest and begin moving at a slightly slower speed later today. A turn toward the north is then anticipated on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...LORENZO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 6:00 AM AST Thu Sep 26 the center of Lorenzo was located near 15.2, -39.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 08:42:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 08:42:29 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260842 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Lorenzo's satellite appearance continues to steadily improve. The cyclone has a large central dense overcast, with outflow established in all quadrants. The hurricane has at times shown signs of a developing eye, however, it has been mostly obscured during the last few hours by expanding cloud tops associated with central (and likely eyewall) convection. Although the eye is not yet apparent in geostationary imagery, a 0618 UTC SSMIS overpass showed that Lorenzo has developed a well-defined mid-level eye. TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications both support an intensity of 90 kt but objective estimates are lower. The intensity of Lorenzo is therefore held at 85 kt as a compromise of the higher subjective and lower objective assessments, but this could be a little conservative. The hurricane is still moving west-northwestward, but a turn toward the northwest is expected later today. Lorenzo has reached a break in the subtropical ridge to the north and should now begin to gain latitude at a faster rate. By day 3, the global models show Lorenzo moving northward along the western periphery of the ridge and by the end of the period it will likely turn northeastward and accelerate ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough. While the models still differ on the details of the forecast, like how fast Lorenzo will be moving once it turns northward, they all show this general evolution. The NHC forecast is mostly an update of the previous advisory and is just west of the center of the guidance envelope. Lorenzo has several more days during which it could strengthen. The primary limiting factor appears to be the size of Lorenzo, which is considerable and is forecast to increase. This will likely only slow down Lorenzo's strengthening, not prevent it. By 72 h, Lorenzo could experience an increase in shear, and most of the guidance responds by forecasting very slow weakening. The official intensity forecast is generally close to HCCA and IVCN at all lead times and is not very different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 15.1N 39.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 260841 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 260841 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...LORENZO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 39.3W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 39.3 West. The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). Lorenzo is forecast to turn toward the northwest and begin moving at a slightly slower speed later today. A turn toward the north is then anticipated on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane later today or early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...LORENZO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 26 the center of Lorenzo was located near 15.1, -39.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 260840 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 39.3W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 90SE 80SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 240SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 39.3W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 38.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 100SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 39.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 260834 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Karen is barely a tropical storm. A pair of ASCAT passes from several hours ago showed maximum winds between 30 and 35 kt in the southeastern quadrant of the storm. Those passes also indicate that the circulation is quite broad and weak on the west side. Based on the ASCAT data and the TAFB Dvorak classification, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. The storm appears quite disheveled in satellite images, with an elongated east to west convective pattern and a lack of well-defined banding features. Karen has not been able to take advantage of the relatively favorable environment that it has been in during the past day or so, which was well anticipated by the dynamical models, but poorly forecast by the statistical-dynamical aids. The storm will remain in generally favorable conditions through tonight, so it should be able to maintain its intensity or perhaps strengthen slightly during that time. After that, however, the models show a steady increase in shear and drier air in the vicinity of the cyclone. These conditions should cause weakening and will likely lead to the system either losing its deep convection and becoming a remnant low or dissipating entirely in 3 or 4 days when it moves into a region of strong westerly shear. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and leans more on the GFS and ECMWF guidance. The tropical storm is still moving north-northeastward at 13 kt steered by the flow between a mid-level ridge to its east and a mid- to upper-level low to its west over the Bahamas. The low is expected to weaken and lift out during the next few days allowing a low- to mid-level ridge to strengthen and build to the north of Karen. This change in the steering flow should cause Karen, or its remnants, to move slower to the northeast and east through Friday, followed by a motion to the west-southwest this weekend. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies closest to the HCCA model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 25.5N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 27.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 27.9N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 28.0N 60.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 27.9N 60.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 27.3N 62.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 27.0N 65.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 26.8N 67.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 08:33:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2019 09:24:42 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 260832 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 260831 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karen Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 ...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 63.5W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM S OF BERMUDA ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 63.5 West. Karen is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northeastward to eastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Friday. Karen, or its remnants, are then expected to slow down and make a clockwise loop over the southwestern Atlantic into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi