National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 280236 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 62(82) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 49(53) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 135 WTNT33 KNHC 280235 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...LORENZO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 44.1W ABOUT 1565 MI...2520 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 44.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. Recent satellite wind data indicate that Lorenzo is still a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...LORENZO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Lorenzo was located near 20.8, -44.1 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280233 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 44.1W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 120SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 360SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 44.1W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 44.0W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.7N 44.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.4N 44.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.0N 43.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 30.7N 41.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 180SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 36.5N 34.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 45.5N 22.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 44.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABNT20 KNHC 272304
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central tropical Atlantic. The National
Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Karen which has
dissipated several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 20:36:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 21:24:27 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 20:36:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 21:31:20 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 272035 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 The satellite appearance of Lorenzo has degraded further since the last advisory, with only a hint of an eye still apparent in visible imagery and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall becoming very asymmetric in infrared imagery. A recent SSMI/S overpass shows that the southern portion of the eyewall has eroded, possibly due to shear or dry air intrusion. The microwave imagery also suggests an outer convective band is forming, but it is not yet well enough defined to call it an outer eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease, and the initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt as a blend of the various estimates. The hurricane continues to have excellent outflow in the northern semicircle. The initial motion remains 330/12 kt. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy or the forecast confidence, as Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west. The track guidance for this advisory, while it remains tightly clustered in direction, is a little slower than the previous guidance. Based on this, the new forecast track is just a little slower than the previous forecast. Lorenzo will be passing over sea surface temperatures of 27-28C for the next 48-72 h. However, it will be in an environment of moderate vertical shear due to an upper-level trough not far to the west. The intensity guidance responds to this by showing gradual weakening during this time, and the new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance. There is a possibility of fluctuations in intensity caused by eyewall replacement cycles superimposed on this weakening trend. After 72 h, the hurricane should encounter stronger mid-latitude westerlies, move over cooler sea surface temperatures, and eventually merge with the above-mentioned deep-layer trough. As this occurs, Lorenzo is forecast to undergo extratropical transition, with this being complete by 120 h. Current indications from the global models are that Lorenzo will retain hurricane strength through the transition. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 20.3N 43.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 21.6N 44.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 23.3N 44.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 25.0N 44.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 26.6N 43.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 30.3N 41.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 35.5N 36.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 44.0N 26.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 702 WTNT42 KNHC 272035 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Karen Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Scatterometer data from a few hours ago indicated that Karen's circulation has opened up into a surface trough of low pressure. In addition, the associated convection has continued to lose organization. Therefore, the system is no longer a tropical cyclone, and this will be the final advisory. Maximum winds, based on the ASCAT pass, remain near 30 kt. Although an area of low pressure may persist for a few more days, the circulation should remain poorly organized, and the remnants are not expected to produce any significant convection. The surface trough is expected to move little during the next 24 hours, but it should then begin moving westward by 48 hours as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 29.3N 58.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 272034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...LORENZO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT REMAINS VERY LARGE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 43.6W ABOUT 1575 MI...2535 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 43.6 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. A combination of satellite wind data and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Lorenzo remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and will affect portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning tonight through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...LORENZO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT REMAINS VERY LARGE... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Lorenzo was located near 20.3, -43.6 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 272034 PWSAT2 REMNANTS OF KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF KAREN WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 272034 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 43.6W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT.......150NE 130SE 50SW 130NW. 34 KT.......230NE 220SE 120SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 360SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 43.6W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 43.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.6N 44.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 130NW. 34 KT...230NE 220SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.3N 44.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 35NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.6N 43.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.3N 41.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 230SE 160SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 35.5N 36.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 44.0N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 43.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 272034 TCMAT2 REMNANTS OF KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 58.5W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 58.5W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 58.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 58.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 272034 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Karen Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...KAREN DEGENERATES INTO A SURFACE TROUGH... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 58.5W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Karen were located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 58.5 West. The remnants are moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) but should stall and then begin moving westward over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Winds associated with the remnants are expected to gradually decrease during the next several days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Berg

...KAREN DEGENERATES INTO A SURFACE TROUGH... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Karen was located near 29.3, -58.5 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Karen, located several hundred
miles southeast of Bermuda, and on Hurricane Lorenzo, located over
the central tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 271456 CCA TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number 22...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Corrected status to dissipated at 72 hours Karen's associated convection is becoming increasingly disorganized, and as has been stated in previous advisories, the circulation is elongated and attached to a surface trough that extends northward toward Post-Tropical Cyclone Jerry. A partial ASCAT pass only showed winds around 25 kt in the southern part of the circulation, and the initial intensity is therefore lowered, probably still generously, to 30 kt. Karen has moved out from beneath an upper-level anticyclone and is now feeling the effects of 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear. The shear is expected to increase further during the next few days and also become more southwesterly, which is likely to lead to weakening and further loss of organization. Based on the latest global model guidance, Karen is now forecast to lose organized deep convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 12 hours and then open up into a trough by day 3. Given the cyclone's current structure, however, it's entirely possible that either of these options could occur as soon as later today. The initial motion is east-northeastward, or 065/7 kt. As it becomes an increasingly shallower system, Karen should stop its eastward motion within the next 12-24 hours and then turn westward on the southern side of a low-level ridge developing over the western Atlantic. This forecast scenario remains consistent with the reasoning from previous NHC advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 28.8N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 29.0N 59.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1200Z 29.1N 59.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 60.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 29.3N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 14:44:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 15:31:30 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 271442 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 The structure of Lorenzo in conventional satellite imagery has decayed a little since the last advisory, with the eye becoming less distinct and the eyewall convection becoming more asymmetric. There is no current microwave imagery to show whether this weakening might be due to the start of an eyewall replacement cycle or not. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little, so the initial intensity is reduced to 120 kt. The hurricane has excellent cirrus outflow in all directions except to the southwest. The initial motion is 330/12 kt. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy or the forecast confidence, as Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. By the end of the forecast period, Lorenzo is expected to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the left of the previous track based mainly on the initial position, and it lies near the various consensus models. Lorenzo is currently passing over a tongue of slightly cooler sea surface temperatures, and it is forecast to reach slightly warmer water in 12-24 h. After that, it stays over sea surface temperatures near 28C through about 72 h. During this time, the intensity will be controlled mainly by internal eyewall replacement cycles and some ups and downs in the vertical shear as the hurricane interacts with a couple of upper-level troughs. The intensity guidance shows a slow weakening trend during this time, and the NHC intensity forecast follows this. However, it would not be surprising to see some fluctuations in intensity occur. After 72 h, the cyclone will become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and move over much colder water. This, and the approach of the aforementioned deep-layer trough, will lead to extratropical transition that will be underway, but likely not complete, by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.4N 42.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 20.8N 43.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 22.6N 44.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 24.2N 44.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 25.9N 43.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 29.6N 41.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 34.5N 37.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 42.5N 28.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven