National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 301456 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 34(34) 60(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 61(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 301456 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 ...LORENZO MAINTAINS IT STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 42.6W ABOUT 1050 MI...1685 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has issued a Hurricane Warning for the central and western Azores, including the islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. The Institute has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the eastern Azores, including the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa Maria. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 42.6 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later today, with an increasing forward speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through Wednesday. Lorenzo is expected to transition to an extratropical low by Thursday. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

...LORENZO MAINTAINS IT STRENGTH... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE AZORES... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Lorenzo was located near 30.0, -42.6 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 301455 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR THE SEA AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA... AND TERCEIRA. THE INSTITUTE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA MARIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 42.6W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 50 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT.......210NE 220SE 150SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 390SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 42.6W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 42.9W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.7N 41.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.5N 38.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...250NE 270SE 200SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.1N 34.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 85SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 290SE 230SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 43.3N 28.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 85SE 60SW 40NW. 50 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 270SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 53.5N 17.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...290NE 290SE 320SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 58.2N 11.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 42.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 11:54:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 09:24:51 GMT

Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 314 WTNT33 KNHC 301154 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 32A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 800 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 ...EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD OF LORENZO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 42.9W ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 42.9 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later today with a gradual increase in forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while it passes near the Azores. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

...EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD OF LORENZO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... As of 8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Lorenzo was located near 29.4, -42.9 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 301105
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 08:40:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 09:24:51 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 300838 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 The satellite presentation of Lorenzo has generally changed little during the last several hours. The hurricane continues to maintain a well-defined inner core with a ragged cloud-filled eye. The outer bands are well established to the north and east of the center, but are restricted on the south side of the circulation due to some southwesterly shear and drier air being wrapped into that portion of the cyclone. The initial intensity estimate is set at 90 kt based on T5.0/90 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Lorenzo is moving north-northeastward at 11 kt through a break in the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The models generally agree that Lorenzo should pick up forward speed and move northeastward during the next day or two as a trough amplifies over the central Atlantic. This flow should take the core of Lorenzo near or to the west of the western Azores late Tuesday and early Wednesday. After that time, the spread in the guidance increases with several of the models including the GFS, HWRF, and HMON showing Lorenzo turning north-northeastward or northward as it moves around the east side of a large extratropical low. The new ECMWF run has shifted closer to the GFS/HWRF/HMON solutions, but it still is considerably to the east of those models as it shows less interaction with the extratropical low. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the left to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. Although the spread in the models is not as large as it was yesterday, the forecast beyond 48 hours is still of low confidence given the uncertainty in the longer-term steering flow. The intensity forecast appears to be more straightforward than the track forecast. The bulk of the guidance shows the hurricane maintaining its intensity or weakening slightly during the next day or two while it remains over relatively warm waters and in moderate wind shear conditions. It seems likely that Lorenzo will be a significant hurricane when it passes near the Azores in about 2 days. After that time, more notable weakening should occur due to a significant drop off in SSTs, drier air, and much stronger shear. In fact, these conditions should ultimately lead to extratropical transition, which is expected to be complete by 72 hours. Dissipation is now predicted to occur by day 5 following the global model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next few days. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the Azores, and Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings could be required later today for those islands. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 28.7N 43.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 30.3N 42.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 32.7N 40.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 36.0N 36.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 40.5N 31.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 52.0N 20.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0600Z 57.0N 13.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 300838 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 96(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) 77(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) 42(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 300836 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 ...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 43.1W ABOUT 1125 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 43.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later today with a gradual increase in forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while it passes near the Azores. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AZORES... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Lorenzo was located near 28.7, -43.1 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 300836 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 43.1W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 50 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT.......210NE 220SE 150SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 360SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 43.1W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 43.3W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.3N 42.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.7N 40.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...250NE 270SE 200SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N 36.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 290SE 230SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 40.5N 31.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. 50 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 270SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 52.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...170NE 150SE 140SW 100NW. 34 KT...390NE 360SE 320SW 360NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 57.0N 13.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 43.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 05:33:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:24:53 GMT

Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 300533 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 200 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 ...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AZORES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 43.2W ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 43.2 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected later today with a gradual increase in forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while it passes near the Azores. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AZORES... As of 2:00 AM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Lorenzo was located near 28.1, -43.2 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 300511
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 02:46:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 03:24:53 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 300242 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 There haven't been a lot of changes with Lorenzo this evening, with a small cloud-filled eye remaining visible and an enormous cloud shield expanding in the northern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates support a somewhat lower intensity than the previous advisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt. It should be emphasized that even though the peak winds are down since yesterday, the area of the hurricane-force winds has more than doubled during that time. Earlier aircraft data indicated that the large hurricane is upwelling a significant amount of cooler waters under the storm, and this is anticipated to cause Lorenzo to slowly weaken during the next couple of days. While the SSTs drop off considerably after late tomorrow, which would normally cause faster weakening, most of the guidance is showing a favorable trough interaction at that time with strong upper-level divergence. These effects are expected to offset, and Lorenzo is likely to be a category 1 or 2 hurricane near the Azores. Little change was made to the previous forecast, except to raise the intensity a little higher near the Azores after more heavily weighting the global models, which have been good performers for this cyclone. The guidance is in very good agreement on Lorenzo becoming an extratropical cyclone in about 72 hours, and that is reflected in the latest forecast. Lorenzo continues north-northeastward at 9 kt through a break in the subtropical ridge. The forecast track confidence remains very high through 48 hours as the hurricane is accelerated toward the northeast ahead of a mid-latitude trough, and the new forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. After that time, however, there is a very large spread in the guidance caused by whether Lorenzo is captured by the mid-latitude trough or if it remains separate. There isn't much change in the newest guidance, although it should be noted that the 12Z ECMWF solution is pretty far east of its ensemble mean. The forecast track confidence is extremely low beyond 72 hours, and the new NHC track was nudged just a little to the left from the previous advisory, slightly east of the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the Azores, and these winds could start late Tuesday or early Wednesday. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 27.6N 43.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 28.9N 42.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 33.9N 38.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 37.5N 34.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 48.0N 22.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0000Z 53.0N 17.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/0000Z 54.0N 17.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake