National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 300242 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 There haven't been a lot of changes with Lorenzo this evening, with a small cloud-filled eye remaining visible and an enormous cloud shield expanding in the northern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates support a somewhat lower intensity than the previous advisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt. It should be emphasized that even though the peak winds are down since yesterday, the area of the hurricane-force winds has more than doubled during that time. Earlier aircraft data indicated that the large hurricane is upwelling a significant amount of cooler waters under the storm, and this is anticipated to cause Lorenzo to slowly weaken during the next couple of days. While the SSTs drop off considerably after late tomorrow, which would normally cause faster weakening, most of the guidance is showing a favorable trough interaction at that time with strong upper-level divergence. These effects are expected to offset, and Lorenzo is likely to be a category 1 or 2 hurricane near the Azores. Little change was made to the previous forecast, except to raise the intensity a little higher near the Azores after more heavily weighting the global models, which have been good performers for this cyclone. The guidance is in very good agreement on Lorenzo becoming an extratropical cyclone in about 72 hours, and that is reflected in the latest forecast. Lorenzo continues north-northeastward at 9 kt through a break in the subtropical ridge. The forecast track confidence remains very high through 48 hours as the hurricane is accelerated toward the northeast ahead of a mid-latitude trough, and the new forecast is essentially an update of the previous one. After that time, however, there is a very large spread in the guidance caused by whether Lorenzo is captured by the mid-latitude trough or if it remains separate. There isn't much change in the newest guidance, although it should be noted that the 12Z ECMWF solution is pretty far east of its ensemble mean. The forecast track confidence is extremely low beyond 72 hours, and the new NHC track was nudged just a little to the left from the previous advisory, slightly east of the various consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the Azores, and these winds could start late Tuesday or early Wednesday. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 27.6N 43.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 28.9N 42.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 33.9N 38.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 37.5N 34.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 48.0N 22.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0000Z 53.0N 17.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/0000Z 54.0N 17.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 300241 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 31(31) 65(96) X(96) X(96) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 74(77) X(77) X(77) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) X(43) X(43) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 300240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 43.5W ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has issued a Hurricane Watch for the central and western Azores, including the islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and Terceira. The Institute has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the eastern Azores, including the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa Maria. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas on Monday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 43.5 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the northeast is expected on Monday with a gradual increase in forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while it passes near the Azores. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday in the Azores. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Lorenzo was located near 27.6, -43.5 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 300238 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR THE SEA AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND TERCEIRA. THE INSTITUTE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA MARIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 43.5W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 50 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT.......210NE 220SE 150SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 390SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 43.5W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 43.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.9N 42.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...240NE 260SE 190SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.9N 38.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...260NE 280SE 220SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.5N 34.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 110SE 100SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 150SW 110NW. 34 KT...280NE 300SE 260SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.0N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...360NE 330SE 300SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 53.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 54.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 43.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
ABNT20 KNHC 292322
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 20:46:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 21:24:44 GMT

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LORENZO WEAKER BUT STILL A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE... ...WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THE AZORES LATER TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Lorenzo was located near 26.9, -44.2 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 292043 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 44.2W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT.......210NE 220SE 140SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 420SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 44.2W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 44.4W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.2N 43.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...210NE 220SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.1N 42.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.4N 40.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 35.6N 37.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...260NE 280SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 44.6N 26.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...330NE 330SE 240SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 52.2N 17.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 55.0N 15.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 44.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291726
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 14:57:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 15:24:40 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 291456 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 Satellite and microwave imagery are indicating that Lorenzo is now weakening. A recent microwave pass showed a broken eyewall as well as dry air in the southwestern quadrant. Over the past hour, the eye has begun to fill in. However, outflow remains excellent and cloud tops remain very cold near the center of the hurricane. A blend of the latest CI values from TAFB and SAB as well as a recent subjective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS suggest the initial intensity is now 125 kt. Lorenzo is moving north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence is very high through 72 hours, and the new forecast is in good agreement with the tightly clustered consensus guidance and the previous forecast. Beyond 72 hours, the guidance now diverges significantly, likely due to how they are handling the interaction between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical cyclone near Greenland late in the forecast period. The majority of the guidance has shifted to the west by several hundred miles over the past couple of runs. However, there remains significant spread between the operational UKMET/ECMWF which take what's left of Lorenzo toward the British Isles, and the solutions that absorb the cyclone into the larger system well over 1000 miles to the west. Based on the recent shift in the models and the large spread, the official forecast was only adjusted a little to the left and lies well to the right of the consensus aids. Needless to say, the forecast track confidence beyond 72 hours is low at the moment, and may need further adjustments in the next couple of advisories. Lorenzo reached its peak intensity last night, and the intensity guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will steadily weaken over the next several days due to increasing southwesterly shear, dry air entrainment, and progressively cooler SSTs. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are still scheduled to investigate Lorenzo later today, and the data they collect should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's intensity and structure. In a few days, Lorenzo will interact with a frontal zone and begin transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. This transition is expected to be complete by 96 hours. It is important to note that although Lorenzo is forecast to weaken through the forecast period, the wind field is expected to expand at the same time, with tropical-storm-force and 50 kt winds forecast to extend over 300 n mi/ 160 n mi respectively from the center in 72 hours. The latest intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and it is near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. Earlier input from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at NHC indicates that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 25.9N 44.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 27.2N 43.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 28.9N 43.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 33.7N 38.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 42.0N 29.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 50.0N 18.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1200Z 54.9N 11.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 291456 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 94(94) X(94) X(94) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 67(67) X(67) X(67) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 291455 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO... ...WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 44.4W ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 44.4 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the northeast along with an increase in forward speed should occur on Monday and continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected over the next few days, but Lorenzo is still expected to be a potent hurricane in a couple of days. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO... ...WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of Lorenzo was located near 25.9, -44.4 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 938 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 291455 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 44.4W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 70NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 140SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 270SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 44.4W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 44.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.2N 43.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 70NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.9N 43.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.7N 38.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...260NE 260SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.0N 29.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...330NE 330SE 240SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 50.0N 18.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 54.9N 11.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 44.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 08:34:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 09:23:04 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 290833 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019 The satellite appearance of Lorenzo is not quite as impressive as it was several hours ago. Although the eye is still very distinct, the cloud tops are not as cold in the eyewall and there are a few dry slots evident beyond the inner core. The initial wind speed is lowered just slightly to 135 kt, but based on the latest satellite estimates this is probably generous. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Lorenzo later today, and the data they collect should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's intensity and structure. Very intense hurricanes like Lorenzo are usually not able to maintain their intensity for very long. Since Lorenzo will be moving toward cooler waters and into an environment of drier air and higher wind shear during the next several days, steady weakening is forecast. Lorenzo is now expected to become extratropical by day 4, when the cyclone will be over SSTs colder than 20 C. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the consensus models, IVCN, IVDR, and HCCA. Lorenzo is still moving northward at 9 kt through a break in the Atlantic subtropical ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough currently over eastern Canada is expected to amplify when it reaches the central Atlantic, which should cause Lorenzo to accelerate to the northeast during the next few days. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo near or just west of the Azores late Tuesday and Wednesday. After that time, there are significant differences in the models on whether or not Lorenzo interacts with an extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The ECMWF and UKMET models show little interaction with that low and show Lorenzo moving east-northeastward in the westerlies toward northwestern France, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. On the other hand, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show Lorenzo rotating around the eastern side of the low and remaining over the Atlantic. The spread in the models is incredibly large, about 1300 n mi by day 5. Given the high uncertainty at this time, only small changes were made to the NHC track forecast, and this one favors the UKMET and ECMWF solutions. However, confidence in the long-term track is very low and adjustments may be needed later today. The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at NHC provided input that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 25.1N 44.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 26.4N 44.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 29.9N 42.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 32.2N 40.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 39.4N 32.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 47.8N 20.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0600Z 53.5N 10.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 290832 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 87(87) 8(95) X(95) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) 15(68) X(68) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 14(40) X(40) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI