National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 14:44:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 15:31:30 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 271442 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 The structure of Lorenzo in conventional satellite imagery has decayed a little since the last advisory, with the eye becoming less distinct and the eyewall convection becoming more asymmetric. There is no current microwave imagery to show whether this weakening might be due to the start of an eyewall replacement cycle or not. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little, so the initial intensity is reduced to 120 kt. The hurricane has excellent cirrus outflow in all directions except to the southwest. The initial motion is 330/12 kt. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy or the forecast confidence, as Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. By the end of the forecast period, Lorenzo is expected to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the left of the previous track based mainly on the initial position, and it lies near the various consensus models. Lorenzo is currently passing over a tongue of slightly cooler sea surface temperatures, and it is forecast to reach slightly warmer water in 12-24 h. After that, it stays over sea surface temperatures near 28C through about 72 h. During this time, the intensity will be controlled mainly by internal eyewall replacement cycles and some ups and downs in the vertical shear as the hurricane interacts with a couple of upper-level troughs. The intensity guidance shows a slow weakening trend during this time, and the NHC intensity forecast follows this. However, it would not be surprising to see some fluctuations in intensity occur. After 72 h, the cyclone will become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and move over much colder water. This, and the approach of the aforementioned deep-layer trough, will lead to extratropical transition that will be underway, but likely not complete, by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.4N 42.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 20.8N 43.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 22.6N 44.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 24.2N 44.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 25.9N 43.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 29.6N 41.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 34.5N 37.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 42.5N 28.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 271442 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 79(81) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 271441 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...LORENZO WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 42.9W ABOUT 1600 MI...2575 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 42.9 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected tonight or on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible today, and slow weakening is forecast to begin by the weekend. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and will affect portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning later today through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...LORENZO WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Lorenzo was located near 19.4, -42.9 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 14:41:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 15:24:31 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 271441 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 42.9W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT.......150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT.......230NE 190SE 110SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 360SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 42.9W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 42.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.8N 43.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 190SE 110SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.6N 44.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 190SE 110SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.2N 44.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.9N 43.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.6N 41.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 230SE 160SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 42.5N 28.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 42.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 271440 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 WTNT22 KNHC 271439 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 59.6W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 59.6W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 60.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 29.0N 59.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.1N 59.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 29.3N 60.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 29.3N 62.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 59.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 271439 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Karen Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...KAREN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AT ANY TIME... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 59.6W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 59.6 West. Karen is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this evening. Karen should then stall overnight and begin moving westward on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Karen is expected to either become a remnant low or open up into a trough of low pressure by tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...KAREN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AT ANY TIME... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Karen was located near 28.8, -59.6 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271141
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karen, located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda, and
on Hurricane Lorenzo, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 09:00:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 09:31:19 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 270858 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Lorenzo has maintained its impressive structure in satellite imagery this morning. The hurricane still has a fairly clear eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops. A 0423 UTC AMSR2 overpass showed a small break in the deepest convection in the southwest eyewall of the hurricane, but given how cloud tops have cooled since then, I suspect that did not last long. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed substantially since the last advisory, so the initial intensity remains 125 kt. The hurricane is moving steadily north-northwestward at 12 kt. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement on Lorenzo's track and confidence in the forecast is high. Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. By the end of the forecast period, Lorenzo will likely accelerate northeastward ahead of mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. The official track forecast is basically unchanged since the last advisory and now sits right in the middle of the guidance envelope. The NHC intensity forecast is also mostly unchanged since the last advisory. Although SHIPS diagnostics suggest that moderate southwesterly shear could soon affect the cyclone, not much change in strength is anticipated for the next 24 hours since Lorenzo will be moving over slightly warmer waters and an eyewall replacement cycle does not seem imminent. Gradual weakening is then anticipated through early next week due to a modest increase in shear and a decrease in available ocean heat content. Short-term fluctuations in intensity related to eyewall replacement cycles are also possible during that time. The NHC forecast remains on the high side of the guidance for the first 24 hours, and is close to HCCA after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 18.6N 42.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 20.1N 42.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 21.8N 43.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 23.5N 43.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 25.1N 43.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 28.7N 41.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 33.3N 37.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 40.0N 30.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 270855 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 76(76) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 270855 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...POWERFUL LORENZO MAINTAINING STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 42.1W ABOUT 1620 MI...2605 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 42.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible today. Slow weakening is forecast to begin by the weekend. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and will affect portions of the Windward Islands beginning today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

...POWERFUL LORENZO MAINTAINING STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Lorenzo was located near 18.6, -42.1 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 937 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 08:51:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 09:24:26 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 982 WTNT23 KNHC 270850 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 42.1W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT.......150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT.......230NE 190SE 100SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 42.1W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 41.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.1N 42.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 190SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.8N 43.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 190SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.5N 43.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.1N 43.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.7N 41.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 33.3N 37.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 40.0N 30.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 42.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 981 WTNT42 KNHC 270850 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Karen's status as a tropical cyclone is becoming increasingly dubious. In a trio of ASCAT passes that arrived yesterday evening, the circulation of the cyclone was indistinguishable from a surface boundary that extends south from the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Jerry. This suggests that Karen's circulation may no longer be well-defined. Furthermore, deep convection near the center of Karen has generally decreased and become less organized since last night. Satellite-based intensity estimates support maintaining the intensity of Karen at 35 kt, but this could be generous given that the max winds observed in the earlier ASCAT data were lower. Regardless of the exact starting intensity of the cyclone, gradual weakening is expected for the next few days. There is unanimous agreement among the dynamical models on this scenario. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models show the cyclone devoid of deep convection within 36 hours, if not sooner. Increasingly hostile upper-level winds should then prevent the cyclone from reorganizing and it is forecast to dissipate in about four days. It has been difficult to locate the center of Karen overnight and the initial motion estimate is uncertain but also unchanged (055/7 kt). The global models are forecasting that Karen will continue to move on this general heading through this morning before it stalls tonight. A building ridge to the north should cause Karen or its remnants to start moving westward over the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 28.3N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 28.8N 60.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 29.1N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 29.3N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 29.3N 61.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z 29.0N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky