National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 09 Sep 2025 03:23:14 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 082311
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic,
associated with a tropical wave, is producing a disorganized area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are favorable
for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form over the weekend or early next week as it moves slowly
westward at 5 to 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. This
system is likely to be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle to
latter part of next week, and interests there should monitor its
progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 456 PM EDT

Issued at 458 PM EDT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Aug 2025 20:43:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Aug 2025 20:43:14 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 19 Aug 2025 20:43:18 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 000 WTNT45 KNHC 192039 TCDAT5 Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 After becoming somewhat disrupted earlier today, Erin's cloud pattern has become better organized with increasing coverage and intensity of central convection. The upper-tropospheric outflow is becoming better defined over the northern portion of the circulation, indicating some decrease in vertical wind shear. The advisory intensity remains at 90 kt which is about the maximum of the various satellite-based subjective and objective estimates. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for a few hours from now to provide a good estimate of Erin's intensity. Based on center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite images, Erin turned to a north-northwestward heading a few hours ago and the initial motion estimate is now around 330/9 kt. The system is situated in a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and should turn northward along the western side of a mid-level high centered southeast of Bermuda Wednesday. Erin should turn toward the northeast as it rounds the northwestern side of the high, and accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward in the southern part of the mid-latitude westerlies over the north Atlantic. Little changes were made to the track forecast from the previous advisory, and the official forecast remains close to the model consensus. Since the shear over Erin appears to have lessened, and the system will continue to traverse warm waters for the next couple of days, some re-strengthening could occur. The future intensity is dependent on whether the inner-core eyewall structure becomes re-established. The official forecast conservatively shows a slight increase in intensity similar to the model consensus but the LGEM guidance shows a little more strengthening than that. Later in the forecast period, Erin should gradually weaken over the cooler waters of the north Atlantic and lose its tropical characteristics in 4-5 days. It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags. 2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night, where Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads impassible. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda on Thursday and Friday where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect. 4. Interests along the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts should also monitor the progress of Erin as strong winds are possible Thursday and Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 26.6N 72.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 28.1N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 30.3N 73.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 32.6N 73.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 34.9N 71.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 36.8N 68.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 38.4N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 41.0N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 43.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 19 2025 000 FONT15 KNHC 192038 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 2100 UTC TUE AUG 19 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 9(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 000 WTNT35 KNHC 192038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 72.7W ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch is extended northward along the U.S. Atlantic coast north of Cape Charles Light, Virginia to Chincoteague, Virginia. The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Duck, North Carolina including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Duck, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. Interests along the U.S Mid-Atlantic coast and the southern New England coast should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 72.7 West. Erin is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight followed by a northward motion on Wednesday and then a northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas tonight, and then move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days. Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall will be diminishing across the Turk and Caicos and the Bahamas late this afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall is possible on the Outer Banks of North Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday with the potential for 1 to 2 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area north of Duck, North Carolina to Cape Charles Light beginning Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Bermuda beginning Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD... ...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 the center of Erin was located near 26.6, -72.7 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 19 2025 000 WTNT25 KNHC 192037 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 2100 UTC TUE AUG 19 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 72.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......180NE 200SE 150SW 160NW. 4 M SEAS....420NE 300SE 180SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 72.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 72.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.1N 73.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.3N 73.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.6N 73.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...230NE 250SE 200SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 34.9N 71.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 36.8N 68.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 130NW. 34 KT...280NE 280SE 230SW 250NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 38.4N 64.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 50 KT...170NE 160SE 140SW 140NW. 34 KT...320NE 300SE 250SW 260NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 41.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...140NE 160SE 140SW 140NW. 34 KT...340NE 320SE 250SW 260NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 43.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 100SW 120NW. 34 KT...250NE 270SE 270SW 240NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 72.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

211
ABNT20 KNHC 191738
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located a couple of hundred miles to the northeast of the
Southeast Bahamas.

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of
the week or this weekend. This system should move westward to
west-northwestward at about 20 mph and approach the vicinity of the
northern Leeward Islands on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
A tropical wave located about a hundred miles to the south of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable
for additional development over the next couple of days as the
system moves westward at around 15 mph. Towards the end of this
week, this system could encounter a less favorable environment,
limiting its development chances after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 19 Aug 2025 15:58:38 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Aug 2025 05:31:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Aug 2025 03:22:28 GMT

Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Aug 17 2025 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170531 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 200 AM AST Sun Aug 17 2025 ...ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 66.1W ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the southeast and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 66.1 West. Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn to the north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next day or two due to inner-core structural changes. Erin is becoming a larger system. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall today across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning tonight. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical storm force could occur over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today and across the southeast and central Bahamas tonight through Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next couple of days. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of the week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...ERIN'S OUTER RAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... As of 2:00 AM AST Sun Aug 17 the center of Erin was located near 20.4, -66.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

146
ABNT20 KNHC 170508
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located about 150 miles north of Puerto Rico.

Northwestern Atlantic:
The area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles off the
coast of North Carolina continues to produce disorganized shower
activity to the east of the center. Development, if any, of this
system should be slow to occur during the next day or so while it
moves little over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. The
opportunity for development should end on Monday when environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form over the central tropical
Atlantic during the middle to latter portion of the week. Some
subsequent development could occur as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025 000 FONT15 KNHC 170300 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 0300 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 9(21) 1(22) X(22) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 8(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 2 7( 9) 17(26) 5(31) 2(33) 1(34) X(34) GRAND TURK 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PONCE PR 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN PR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT JOHN 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025 239 WTNT45 KNHC 170259 TCDAT5 Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025 After rapidly intensifying for the first part of the day, Erin now appears to be in the middle stages of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). Both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance have indicated concentric eyewalls on their missions this evening, and in response, the inner eyewall is starting to become more degraded with decreasing winds. With that said, there is not an especially well defined secondary wind maximum quite yet, primarily only observed in the NOAA-P3 Tail Doppler Radar data in the northeastern quadrant. The peak flight level winds reported by the NOAA and Air Force aircraft were both 130 kt at 700 mb. The initial intensity is therefore reduced to 120 kt for this advisory, and this could be generous. The inner eyewall of Erin has been wobbling around, likely due to some trochoidal motion as it interacts with the building secondary wind maximum, but the longer-term motion is around 290/12 kt. Erin has moved left of the NHC forecast track over the past day, and I suspect some of this left-of expected motion could be due to the small inner-core size of the hurricane, which was poorly resolved by all of the hurricane-regional forecast models. However, as the overall wind field of Erin grows in size, a more consistent west-northwestward motion is expected to resume tonight and persist over the next 12-24 hours. After that time, a series of shortwave troughs will move offshore of Atlantic Canada, helping to reinforce a longwave trough over the north-central portion of the Atlantic. This should create a growing weakness to the north of Erin, ultimately allowing the large hurricane to turn northward and then northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance this cycle made another westward adjustment, and the NHC track forecast was nudged in that direction. The current track remains to the east of both the HCCA and ECMWF track aids, so it would not be surprising to see some additional leftward adjustments in subsequent forecast cycles. The future intensity is probably the most challenging aspect of Erin's forecast. Erin's maximum sustained winds have been decreasing as a secondary eyewall gradually becomes better defined. A little more weakening could occur in the short term as these structural changes occur. However, none of the hurricane-regional models appears to have a good handle on Erin's current structure (they all have a much broader core). Given that the vertical wind shear is currently low, and the hurricane is well embedded in a moist environment, this ERC is expected to complete without much issue, though it will likely take a bit of time for the hurricane's maximum sustained winds to recover as its wind field broadens. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast shows some reintensification in the 24 h period after this ERC completes. Afterwards, it wouldn't be surprising to see another cycle begin, and at 36-48 h northwesterly shear is still anticipated to increase some. Their combination should begin a weakening trend with Erin as it continues to grow in size. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, primarily due to the weaker initial intensity, but is still roughly in line with the intensity consensus aids. A recent scatterometer pass indicates that Erin's outer-core is growing in size, and the models remain in strong agreement that the system will grow further the next several days. In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough ocean conditions over the western Atlantic. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall at times through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next 48 h, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Gusts to tropical storm force in Erin's outer rainbands are likely in portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday. Tropical-storm force wind gusts are possible in the Southeast Bahamas beginning late Sunday. 3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week. 4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of Erin since there is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high surf by the middle part of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 20.3N 65.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 20.8N 66.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 22.0N 68.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 23.3N 69.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 24.5N 70.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 26.0N 71.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 28.0N 72.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 32.0N 71.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 37.5N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin