Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 46

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023 000 WTNT42 KNHC 042038 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023 Philippe still has an elongated circulation with discrete clusters of deep convection extending well to the east and south of the center. Aircraft and satellite-derived wind data suggest that the maximum winds have decreased a bit, and Philippe is barely a tropical storm. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft only measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 39 kt, and although SFMR winds were reported between 35-40 kt, a comparison with ASCAT data and a visual assessment from the flight crew indicate that these data were at least 10 kt too high. The consensus of all available data suggest that 35 kt is a more representative value for the initial intensity. The latest fixes indicate that Philippe has turned northward with an initial motion of 350/10 kt. A northward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the next 3 days while Philippe moves between a deep-layer trough just east of Florida and the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. After day 3, a larger trough is forecast to move across eastern North America and become negatively tilted, which is expected to cause Philippe to bend to the north-northwest when it reaches Atlantic Canada or eastern New England over the weekend. The track models (at least the ones that carry Philippe for the entire forecast period) remain in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid. The forecast for Philippe's intensity and structure remains complex. The 12Z GFS still shows a separate non-tropical low developing over the western Atlantic, with Philippe becoming absorbed by the warm front to the east of the low in 2-3 days. However, that appears to be an outlier scenario at this time since the ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models keep Philippe as a distinct and dominant low. Even if it doesn't become absorbed, Philippe is likely to become frontal by day 3, and the NHC forecast now shows the system as extratropical by Saturday afternoon. Little change in strength is likely during the next couple of days, but Philippe could strengthen a little due to baroclinic influences while it goes through extratropical transition. The NHC intensity forecast is below the intensity consensus aids for the first 48 hours, but then is between IVCN and the ECMWF after that time. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning early Friday morning, and a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect. Heavy rainfall will begin to affect the island on Thursday. 2. Philippe is likely to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and eastern New England, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, this weekend. Regardless of Philippe's intensity or structure, interests in those areas should monitor the storm's progress and be prepared for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 22.6N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 24.0N 66.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 26.6N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 29.8N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 33.3N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 36.9N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 40.9N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1800Z 50.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023 000 FONT12 KNHC 042038 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 24(35) X(35) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) X(28) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) X(32) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 46

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023 000 WTNT22 KNHC 042037 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.9W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.9W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 65.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 66.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.6N 66.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.8N 65.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.3N 65.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.9N 65.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 210SE 60SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 40.9N 65.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 50.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 65.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

5 months 3 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 032309
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located just north of the British Virgin Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 42

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023 894 WTNT42 KNHC 032042 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023 Philippe has continued to lose organization for much of the day. Satellite images and aircraft fixes from this morning indicate that the circulation has become elongated, and the remaining deep convection has relatively little, if any, organization relative to the center, which is now located just north of the Virgin Islands. The initial intensity remains 40 kt based on the earlier SFMR data, but this could be generous given the overall loss of convective organization. The current motion is northwestward, or 310/10 kt. Over the next couple of days, Philippe is expected to turn northward between a strong mid-level high over the subtropical Atlantic and a developing cut-off low east of Florida, with its forward speed increasing in 2-3 days when it becomes positioned between these two features. The northward motion is expected to continue through the end of the forecast period as another deep-layer trough moves eastward across eastern North America. The most notable change in this NHC forecast is that the guidance has again shifted westward, both due to an adjustment caused by Philippe's recent motion and a general westward trend in the track guidance. The official forecast is close to the TVCA consensus aid, but it's not as far to the west as the latest ECMWF and HCCA solutions. The risk continues to increase for some form of Philippe, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, to reach Atlantic Canada or eastern New England in about 5 days. The deep-layer trough located near the east coast of the United States is likely to keep moderate-to-strong westerly or southwesterly shear over Philippe for much of the forecast period. As a result, little change in strength is forecast during the next 2-3 days. The GFS and ECMWF are now in good agreement that a separate baroclinic/non-tropical low will develop just to the west of Philippe in about 3 days. These two systems are likely to interact, with Philippe becoming attached to the warm front, and therefore becoming extratropical, by day 4. It's possible that Philippe could strengthen slightly due to this baroclinic interaction, and that scenario is shown in the official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Philippe is expected to produce scattered flash flooding across portions of the northern Leeward Islands and the British Virgin Islands into early Wednesday. 2. Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through Wednesday. 3. The risk is increasing for tropical storm conditions to occur on Bermuda later this week. Interests on Bermuda should monitor the progress of Philippe. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.6N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 20.4N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 22.0N 66.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 23.8N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 26.2N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 29.2N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 32.2N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 38.1N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1800Z 45.8N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023 000 FONT12 KNHC 032041 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 8(29) X(29) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT JOHN 34 25 X(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT MAARTEN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 42

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023 000 WTNT32 KNHC 032041 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023 ...PHILIPPE BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 64.9W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Philippe. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 64.9 West. Philippe is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Wednesday, followed by a faster motion toward the north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move away from the Virgin Islands. Philippe will then approach Bermuda Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall amounts into early Wednesday: Anguilla southward to Montserrat, including St. Kitts and Nevis, and the British Virgin Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts to 12 inches. The remainder of the Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands: 1 to 4 inches The U.S. Virgin Islands and northeast Puerto Rico: 2 to 4 inches This rainfall would result in scattered flash flooding. WIND: Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster

Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)

5 months 3 weeks ago
...PHILIPPE BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 3 the center of Philippe was located near 19.6, -64.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 42

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023 366 WTNT22 KNHC 032040 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 64.9W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 64.9W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 64.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.4N 65.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N 66.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.8N 66.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.2N 66.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.2N 66.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.2N 65.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 40SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 38.1N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 45.8N 66.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 64.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 38A

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023 000 WTNT32 KNHC 022355 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 38A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 800 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023 ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 62.0W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF ST. MARTIN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda * Antigua A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 6 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 62.0 West. Philippe is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a generally northwestward motion is forecast through early Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to continue passing near the northern Leeward Islands tonight and move north of those islands on Tuesday. The strongest winds and heavy rains will likely occur in the islands after the center passes. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast by late Tuesday, followed by a northward motion on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday: Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches Rest of Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the warning area tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

5 months 3 weeks ago

000
ABNT20 KNHC 022339
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located near the northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 38

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023 000 WTNT42 KNHC 022056 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023 The center of Philippe remains exposed this afternoon with some convection firing closer to the center over the last few hours. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms remain displaced to the south and southeast of the center as high northwesterly vertical wind shear persists. The initial intensity is again held steady at 45 kt for this advisory, consistent with SFMR data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft mission showing a large area of 40-45 surface winds mostly on the east and southeast side of the system earlier this afternoon. Another Air Force Reserve mission is scheduled for this evening. The storm continues to move to the northwest (305 degrees) at 6 kt this afternoon. Philippe refuses to gain much vertical depth as a tropical cyclone and has been steered more by the lower-level ridge. Thus, the track forecast is again adjusted westward to match recent satellite trends and in line with the weaker model guidance. The cyclone is forecast to pass near Barbuda tonight before turning north-northwest north of the Leeward Islands. Around mid-week, Philippe should turn northward due to flow between a mid-level trough in the southwest Atlantic and the subtropical ridge. Uncertainty greatly increases after that point, with huge differences showing up between the GFS- and ECMWF-based guidance. The differences in model track forecasts are related to whether this trough captures Philippe's circulation, causing Philippe to move more to the north-northwest, or whether it is shunted more to the northeast ahead of the trough. Consistent with model guidance, the track forecast has shifted farther west from the previous advisory and is in line with the consensus aids and mean ensemble track guidance. Further adjustments to the west may be necessary. Strong northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to prevent significant strengthening in the short term. Shear is forecast to decrease a bit for a short period of time in the next 2 to 3 days and could allow for some strengthening. However, almost all of the guidance is showing a less conducive environment, and the NHC forecast reflects this trend, lying on the high end of model guidance but in line with HCCA. The uncertainty is extremely large at the end of the forecast period as some models are now showing an extratropical transition due to the mid-latitude trough, but a lot depends on how strong Philippe eventually becomes, which has clearly not been very predictable during this storm's lifetime. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across Barbuda and Antigua beginning this evening while Philippe passes near and north of the area. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should continue to monitor this system. 2. Heavy rainfall from Philippe could produce isolated to scattered flash flooding over the northern Leeward Islands, particularly across Barbuda and Antigua, through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 17.6N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.2N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 19.1N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 20.6N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 22.2N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 23.9N 63.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 26.0N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 30.6N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 35.0N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake/Stevenson
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 02 2023 000 FONT12 KNHC 022055 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC MON OCT 02 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT JOHN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 9 15(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SABA 34 4 7(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ST EUSTATIUS 34 7 9(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 13 8(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BARBUDA 34 87 6(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) BARBUDA 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 72 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) GUADELOUPE 34 11 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 38

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 02 2023 000 WTNT22 KNHC 022054 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC MON OCT 02 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 61.5W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 61.5W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 61.1W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.2N 62.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.1N 62.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.6N 63.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.2N 63.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.9N 63.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.0N 63.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 30.6N 62.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 35.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 61.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEVENSON
NHC Webmaster

Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 34A

5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 800 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 000 WTNT32 KNHC 012353 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 34A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 800 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023 ...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEGINNING OVERNIGHT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 59.0W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM ESE OF BARBUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional tropical storm watches could be required tonight or on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 59.0 West. Philippe is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A track toward the northwest is forecast through Monday followed by a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the middle of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km), primarily east and southeast of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday: Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches Rest of the Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas by Monday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
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4 years 5 months ago
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