5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
000
WTNT42 KNHC 042038
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
Philippe still has an elongated circulation with discrete clusters
of deep convection extending well to the east and south of the
center. Aircraft and satellite-derived wind data suggest that the
maximum winds have decreased a bit, and Philippe is barely a
tropical storm. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
only measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 39 kt, and although
SFMR winds were reported between 35-40 kt, a comparison with ASCAT
data and a visual assessment from the flight crew indicate that
these data were at least 10 kt too high. The consensus of all
available data suggest that 35 kt is a more representative value
for the initial intensity.
The latest fixes indicate that Philippe has turned northward with
an initial motion of 350/10 kt. A northward motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected through the next 3 days while
Philippe moves between a deep-layer trough just east of Florida and
the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. After day 3, a
larger trough is forecast to move across eastern North America and
become negatively tilted, which is expected to cause Philippe to
bend to the north-northwest when it reaches Atlantic Canada or
eastern New England over the weekend. The track models (at
least the ones that carry Philippe for the entire forecast period)
remain in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track
forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid.
The forecast for Philippe's intensity and structure remains complex.
The 12Z GFS still shows a separate non-tropical low developing over
the western Atlantic, with Philippe becoming absorbed by the warm
front to the east of the low in 2-3 days. However, that appears to
be an outlier scenario at this time since the ECMWF, UKMET, and
Canadian models keep Philippe as a distinct and dominant low. Even
if it doesn't become absorbed, Philippe is likely to become
frontal by day 3, and the NHC forecast now shows the system as
extratropical by Saturday afternoon. Little change in strength is
likely during the next couple of days, but Philippe could strengthen
a little due to baroclinic influences while it goes through
extratropical transition. The NHC intensity forecast is below the
intensity consensus aids for the first 48 hours, but then is between
IVCN and the ECMWF after that time.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
early Friday morning, and a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect.
Heavy rainfall will begin to affect the island on Thursday.
2. Philippe is likely to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and
eastern New England, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, this
weekend. Regardless of Philippe's intensity or structure, interests
in those areas should monitor the storm's progress and be prepared
for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 22.6N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 24.0N 66.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 26.6N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 29.8N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 33.3N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 36.9N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 40.9N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/1800Z 50.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023
000
FONT12 KNHC 042038
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 24(35) X(35)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) X(28)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) X(32)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023
000
WTNT22 KNHC 042037
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.9W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.9W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 65.8W
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 66.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.6N 66.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.8N 65.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.3N 65.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.9N 65.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 60SW 240NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 40.9N 65.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 60SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 50.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 65.9W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 05/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 032309
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located just north of the British Virgin Islands.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Oct 2023 20:43:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Oct 2023 21:23:15 GMT
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023
894
WTNT42 KNHC 032042
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023
Philippe has continued to lose organization for much of the day.
Satellite images and aircraft fixes from this morning indicate that
the circulation has become elongated, and the remaining deep
convection has relatively little, if any, organization relative to
the center, which is now located just north of the Virgin Islands.
The initial intensity remains 40 kt based on the earlier SFMR data,
but this could be generous given the overall loss of convective
organization.
The current motion is northwestward, or 310/10 kt. Over the next
couple of days, Philippe is expected to turn northward between a
strong mid-level high over the subtropical Atlantic and a developing
cut-off low east of Florida, with its forward speed increasing in
2-3 days when it becomes positioned between these two features. The
northward motion is expected to continue through the end of the
forecast period as another deep-layer trough moves eastward across
eastern North America. The most notable change in this NHC forecast
is that the guidance has again shifted westward, both due to an
adjustment caused by Philippe's recent motion and a general westward
trend in the track guidance. The official forecast is close to the
TVCA consensus aid, but it's not as far to the west as the latest
ECMWF and HCCA solutions. The risk continues to increase for some
form of Philippe, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, to reach
Atlantic Canada or eastern New England in about 5 days.
The deep-layer trough located near the east coast of the United
States is likely to keep moderate-to-strong westerly or
southwesterly shear over Philippe for much of the forecast period.
As a result, little change in strength is forecast during the next
2-3 days. The GFS and ECMWF are now in good agreement that a
separate baroclinic/non-tropical low will develop just to the west
of Philippe in about 3 days. These two systems are likely to
interact, with Philippe becoming attached to the warm front, and
therefore becoming extratropical, by day 4. It's possible that
Philippe could strengthen slightly due to this baroclinic
interaction, and that scenario is shown in the official forecast.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall from Philippe is expected to produce scattered
flash flooding across portions of the northern Leeward Islands and
the British Virgin Islands into early Wednesday.
2. Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through Wednesday.
3. The risk is increasing for tropical storm conditions to occur on
Bermuda later this week. Interests on Bermuda should monitor the
progress of Philippe.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/2100Z 19.6N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 20.4N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 22.0N 66.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 23.8N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 26.2N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 29.2N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 32.2N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 38.1N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/1800Z 45.8N 66.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023
000
FONT12 KNHC 032041
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 8(29) X(29)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
SAINT THOMAS 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAINT JOHN 34 25 X(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023
000
WTNT32 KNHC 032041
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Tue Oct 03 2023
...PHILIPPE BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 64.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Philippe.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 64.9 West. Philippe is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northwest is forecast on Wednesday, followed by a faster
motion toward the north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Philippe will move away from the Virgin
Islands. Philippe will then approach Bermuda Thursday night and
Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts into early Wednesday:
Anguilla southward to Montserrat, including St. Kitts and Nevis,
and the British Virgin Islands: 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts
to 12 inches.
The remainder of the Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands:
1 to 4 inches
The U.S. Virgin Islands and northeast Puerto Rico: 2 to 4 inches
This rainfall would result in scattered flash flooding.
WIND: Gusty winds are likely to continue across portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands through Wednesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
...PHILIPPE BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 3
the center of Philippe was located near 19.6, -64.9
with movement NW at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023
366
WTNT22 KNHC 032040
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 64.9W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 64.9W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 64.6W
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.4N 65.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N 66.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.8N 66.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.2N 66.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.2N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 32.2N 65.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 40SW 180NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 38.1N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 45.8N 66.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 64.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Oct 2023 00:00:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Oct 2023 21:23:20 GMT
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 800 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023
000
WTNT32 KNHC 022355
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
800 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 62.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Antigua
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 6
hours.
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 62.0 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a
generally northwestward motion is forecast through early Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is expected to
continue passing near the northern Leeward Islands tonight and move
north of those islands on Tuesday. The strongest winds and heavy
rains will likely occur in the islands after the center passes. A
turn toward the north-northwest is forecast by late Tuesday,
followed by a northward motion on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so,
but Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the
middle of the week.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday:
Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches
Rest of Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches
This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area tonight.
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through midweek. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
000
ABNT20 KNHC 022339
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located near the northern Leeward Islands.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...
As of 8:00 PM AST Mon Oct 2
the center of Philippe was located near 17.6, -62.0
with movement WNW at 7 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023
000
WTNT42 KNHC 022056
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
500 PM AST Mon Oct 02 2023
The center of Philippe remains exposed this afternoon with
some convection firing closer to the center over the last few
hours. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms remain displaced to the
south and southeast of the center as high northwesterly vertical
wind shear persists. The initial intensity is again held steady at
45 kt for this advisory, consistent with SFMR data from the Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft mission showing a large area
of 40-45 surface winds mostly on the east and southeast side of the
system earlier this afternoon. Another Air Force Reserve mission is
scheduled for this evening.
The storm continues to move to the northwest (305 degrees) at 6 kt
this afternoon. Philippe refuses to gain much vertical depth as a
tropical cyclone and has been steered more by the lower-level
ridge. Thus, the track forecast is again adjusted westward to
match recent satellite trends and in line with the weaker model
guidance. The cyclone is forecast to pass near Barbuda tonight
before turning north-northwest north of the Leeward Islands.
Around mid-week, Philippe should turn northward due to flow between
a mid-level trough in the southwest Atlantic and the subtropical
ridge. Uncertainty greatly increases after that point, with huge
differences showing up between the GFS- and ECMWF-based guidance.
The differences in model track forecasts are related to whether this
trough captures Philippe's circulation, causing Philippe to move
more to the north-northwest, or whether it is shunted more to the
northeast ahead of the trough. Consistent with model guidance, the
track forecast has shifted farther west from the previous advisory
and is in line with the consensus aids and mean ensemble track
guidance. Further adjustments to the west may be necessary.
Strong northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to
prevent significant strengthening in the short term. Shear is
forecast to decrease a bit for a short period of time in the next 2
to 3 days and could allow for some strengthening. However, almost
all of the guidance is showing a less conducive environment, and
the NHC forecast reflects this trend, lying on the high end of
model guidance but in line with HCCA. The uncertainty is extremely
large at the end of the forecast period as some models are now
showing an extratropical transition due to the mid-latitude trough,
but a lot depends on how strong Philippe eventually becomes, which
has clearly not been very predictable during this storm's lifetime.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across Barbuda and
Antigua beginning this evening while Philippe passes near and
north of the area. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward
Islands should continue to monitor this system.
2. Heavy rainfall from Philippe could produce isolated to scattered
flash flooding over the northern Leeward Islands, particularly
across Barbuda and Antigua, through Tuesday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 17.6N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.2N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 19.1N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 20.6N 63.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 22.2N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 23.9N 63.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 26.0N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 30.6N 62.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 35.0N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake/Stevenson
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 02 2023
000
FONT12 KNHC 022055
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC MON OCT 02 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
SAINT THOMAS 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT JOHN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 9 15(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
SABA 34 4 7(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 7 9(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 13 8(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
BARBUDA 34 87 6(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
BARBUDA 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ANTIGUA 34 72 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)
GUADELOUPE 34 11 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 02 2023
000
WTNT22 KNHC 022054
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
2100 UTC MON OCT 02 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 61.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 61.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 61.1W
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.2N 62.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.1N 62.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.6N 63.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.2N 63.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.9N 63.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.0N 63.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 30.6N 62.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 35.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 61.5W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 03/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/STEVENSON
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Oct 2023 23:57:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Oct 2023 21:23:21 GMT
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
Issued at 800 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023
000
WTNT32 KNHC 012353
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
800 PM AST Sun Oct 01 2023
...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEGINNING OVERNIGHT FOR THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 59.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 195 MI...320 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda
Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional tropical storm watches
could be required tonight or on Monday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 59.0 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A track
toward the northwest is forecast through Monday followed by a
northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Philippe could begin to intensify more significantly around the
middle of the week.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km),
primarily east and southeast of the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
RAINFALL: Philippe is forecast to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday:
Barbuda and Antigua: 4 to 6 inches
Rest of the Leeward Islands: 2 to 4 inches
This rainfall may result in isolated to scattered flash flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas by
Monday morning.
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Webmaster
5 months 3 weeks ago
...PHILIPPE MOVING SLOWLY... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEGINNING OVERNIGHT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
As of 8:00 PM AST Sun Oct 1
the center of Philippe was located near 16.6, -59.0
with movement WNW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 998 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
NHC Webmaster
Checked
4 years 5 months ago
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