National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 11:47:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 09:22:51 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 161146 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 600 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...SARA STILL STATIONARY... ...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 86.3W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is nearly stationary. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin late today, with a faster motion toward the west-northwest and northwest expected on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely today. Slight strengthening is possible tonight and Sunday before landfall in Belize, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to dissipate Sunday night or Monday as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...SARA STILL STATIONARY... ...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 6:00 AM CST Sat Nov 16 the center of Sara was located near 16.1, -86.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161127
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sara, still located near the northern coast of Honduras.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 08:41:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 09:22:51 GMT

Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 160839 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data indicate that the center of Sara is located between the coast of mainland Honduras and the Bay Islands. Compared to 24 h ago, the storm has become less organized with a decrease in the convection near the center. The ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 35-40 kt in an area of convection to the west and northwest of the center, and based on this the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt. The cyclone remains stationary. A mid-level ridge should strengthen to the north of Sara later today or tonight, which is forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move slowly toward the west-northwest through Sunday. This motion should bring the center over Belize between the 24-36 h points. After landfall, Sara or its remnants should turn northwestward as it moves across the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that not much change in strength should occur before Sara makes landfall in Belize. The intensity forecast will show a little strengthening at 24 h when the system has the most room over water. The cyclone should weaken after landfall, and the dynamical models are in good agreement that it should decay to a open trough before reaching the Bay of Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico. Based on this guidance, the intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 60 h. The global models suggest the possibility that the remnants of Sara could interact with a frontal system to form a non-tropical low near the northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part of next week. The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 16.1N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 16.3N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 16.7N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 17.3N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 160838 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 8 39(47) 13(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) BELIZE CITY 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUANAJA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 450 WTNT34 KNHC 160838 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...SARA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY... ...PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 86.3W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is currently nearly stationary. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin late today, with a faster motion toward the west-northwest and northwest expected on Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely today. Slight strengthening is possible tonight and Sunday before landfall in Belize, with weakening expected after landfall. Sara is expected to dissipate Sunday night or Monday as it crosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...SARA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY... ...PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 3:00 AM CST Sat Nov 16 the center of Sara was located near 16.1, -86.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 160838 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 86.3W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 86.3W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 86.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 86.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.7N 87.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 86.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160536
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sara, located near the northern coast of Honduras.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 05:32:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 03:22:54 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 160532 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 ...SARA NEARLY STATIONARY AND PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 86.3W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is stationary with little net motion expected overnight. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin late today or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast before landfall on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential for mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning later today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...SARA NEARLY STATIONARY AND PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 12:00 AM CST Sat Nov 16 the center of Sara was located near 16.1, -86.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 160233 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Sara continues to produce a large area of deep convection well north of the center, along with a tighter convective band on the western side of the circulation. Overall, the system hasn't changed much in satellite representation during the past several hours, so the initial wind speed will stay at 45 kt, consistent with most of the estimates. The storm has basically stopped moving tonight and is only forecast to creep westward overnight with very light steering currents. A mid-level ridge should strengthen to the north of Sara later on Saturday, which is forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move slowly toward the west-northwest through Sunday. Sara is likely to move into Belize on Sunday, with the only track forecast change being a slight slowdown, consistent with the latest guidance aids. While Sara is forecast to move over warm waters with light shear through Sunday, none of the regional hurricane models show any intensification, seemingly due to the broad structure of the wind field and perhaps land interaction. This seems reasonable given the current structure, and the latest forecast shows little change through landfall. Almost all of the aids show the system decaying into a remnant low or trough near the southern portion of the Yucatan peninsula, and that has been consistent with the guidance and the NHC forecast for the last few cycles. The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 16.2N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 16.3N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 16.6N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 17.0N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 17.7N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 02:33:03 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Nov 2024 03:22:54 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 160232 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 8 24(32) 16(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) BELIZE CITY 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANAJA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUANAJA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 160232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 ...SARA PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 86.3W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Honduras-Guatemala border * The Bay Islands of Honduras * The Caribbean Sea coast of Guatemala * The coast of Belize * The coast of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya southward to Chetumal A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 86.3 West. Sara is stationary with little net motion expected overnight. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin later on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will continue to move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next day or so before approaching Belize, and then move onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast before landfall on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches are expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential for mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Guatemala, Belize, and portions of Mexico beginning on Saturday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level near and to the north of where the center of Sara crosses the coast of Belize. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...SARA PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 9:00 PM CST Fri Nov 15 the center of Sara was located near 16.2, -86.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 160231 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0300 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 86.3W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 86.3W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 86.3W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.3N 86.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.6N 87.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 88.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 86.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE