National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

000
ABNT20 KNHC 050531
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Three, located offshore of the coast of the southeastern
United States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are listed under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Three are listed under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 02:36:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 03:21:51 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 02:36:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 02:36:37 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 02:36:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 02:36:37 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 358 WTNT43 KNHC 050235 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 The depression is less organized on satellite imagery this evening, with a seemingly elongated low-level center near or just west of the deep convection. This structure is due to persistent southwesterly shear, with a mid-level circulation apparent east of the low-level center. The current intensity will remain 30 kt, consistent with data from the last Air Force reconnaissance mission and satellite trends. The system has been moving erratically recently, but a longer term motion is basically stationary. A slow north-northwestward motion is anticipated to begin on Saturday as the depression is steered on the northeast side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern Gulf. After that time, the system should be steered to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. This motion should bring the center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. The new NHC track forecast was nudged to the east, consistent with the latest guidance. The global models generally indicate that the current shear should lessen on Saturday, which could allow for some strengthening in combination with the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. There is plenty of dry air aloft, however, which will probably limit significant development, as well as the current disheveled structure. The bulk of the guidance indicates modest strengthening as the system approaches the coast, and the new forecast follows suit, near the latest model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning Saturday and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three between Saturday through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the Carolinas. 3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of southeastern United States north of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 30.6N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 30.9N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 31.7N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 32.9N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0000Z 34.2N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1200Z 35.5N 78.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 000 FONT13 KNHC 050234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 5( 5) 13(18) 8(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 7( 7) 17(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 21(22) 23(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 17(18) 13(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 050234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 78.9W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to Little River Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional warnings and watches will likely be required for portions of this area later tonight and Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 78.9 West. The depression has been nearly stationary tonight. A slow motion towards the north-northwest is expected to begin on Saturday, followed by a motion toward the north Saturday night and northeast Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning late Saturday or early Sunday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas Saturday through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. This would result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Depression Three, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 1 to 2 ft above ground level could occur along the coast in the tropical storm watch area in areas of onshore flow. SURF: The depression is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of the southeastern United States coastline north of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 the center of Three was located near 30.6, -78.9 with movement at mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 912 WTNT23 KNHC 050234 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 78.9W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 78.9W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 30.9N 79.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.7N 79.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 32.9N 79.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.2N 79.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.5N 78.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 78.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE