National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 11:52:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 14:56:46 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 11:52:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 09:21:33 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT43 KNHC 051455 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Satellite images suggest that Chantal has been organizing and gaining strength. The storm is still asymmetric though, with most of the associated showers and thunderstorms located near and to the east of the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating the system and have found that the pressure has dropped to 1007 mb. The plane has yet to sample the area of strong thunderstorms, where the highest winds are likely occurring. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt for now. The outer rainbands are beginning to reach portions of South and North Carolina, and conditions along the coast within the watch and warning areas are expected to continue to deteriorate throughout the day. Chantal has barely moved since last night, but a motion to the north-northwest is expected to begin soon. The main steering features appear to be a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a narrow mid-level ridge across the mid-Atlantic region. The flow between these features should cause Chantal to move inland over South Carolina Sunday morning. It should be noted that center reformations are possible, which could cause some erratic motion. After landfall, a turn to the northeast is expected when the storm moves on the western side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies close to the previous one, and the latest HCCA and Google Deep Mind solutions. Additional strengthening seems likely in the short term as Chantal is expected to remain over warm water and move into a lower wind shear environment. In addition, the shear direction is expected to shift from southwesterly to southerly, which is more conducive for strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and in line with the latest HMON, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B guidance. After landfall, steady weakening is expected until the system dissipates in 48 to 60 hours. Chantal is expected to remain a lopsided system during the next day or so. Therefore, the strongest winds are anticipated to occur to the right of the landfall location. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash flooding through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas in the coastal plain of the Carolinas. 3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. Beach goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 31.1N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 31.8N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 33.1N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0000Z 34.6N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/1200Z 35.8N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 000 FONT13 KNHC 051455 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 6( 9) 2(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 7(10) 3(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SURF CITY NC 34 7 12(19) 5(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) WILMINGTON NC 34 1 7( 8) 4(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 14 26(40) 5(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LITTLE RIVER 34 15 36(51) 6(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 19 42(61) 5(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 6 28(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) CHARLESTON SC 34 30 29(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 17 10(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) KINGS BAY GA 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 051455 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 78.7W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Surf City, NC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 79.0 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before Chantal reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) primarily east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning later today. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected and these rains could cause flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC...1-3 ft Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into Sunday along the coast of eastern South Carolina and much of North Carolina. SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 the center of Chantal was located near 31.1, -78.7 with movement N at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 000 WTNT23 KNHC 051453 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 78.7W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 78.7W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.8N 79.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.1N 79.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.6N 79.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.8N 78.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 78.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 15:00 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 the center of Chantal was located near 31.1, -78.7 with movement N at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 11:52:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 09:21:33 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 11:52:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 09:21:33 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 11:52:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 09:21:33 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051153
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Chantal, located off the coast of the
southeastern United States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are listed under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Chantal are listed under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 051151 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 800 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 79.0W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 005 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning from the South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 79.0 West. The storm is moving slowly toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected before Chantal reaches the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing into Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning later today. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the coastal plain of the Carolinas today through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, is expected. Resulting in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...1-3 ft Edisto Beach, SC to South Santee River, SC...1-2 ft SURF: The tropical storm is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next couple of days. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 the center of Chantal was located near 30.9, -79.0 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 08:53:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 09:21:33 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 08:53:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 08:53:38 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 930 WTNT43 KNHC 050852 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 The depression has been showing signs of organization overnight, with a significant burst of deep convection currently seen on GOES-19 infrared imagery on the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone. However, the center of the tropical depression appears to still be displaced westward from this burst, estimated to be on the edge of the larger cirrus plume. An earlier scatterometer pass received just after the prior advisory indicated the peak winds were up to 32 kt, so the depression may be close to tropical storm strength. For now though, the initial intensity is being held at 30 kt blending the lower subjective and higher objective Dvorak intensity estimates. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission is scheduled to sample the system later this morning and should provide more in-situ information about the cyclone later today. The depression continues to meander this morning, with my best guess at an estimated motion to be at 030/2-kt. The track forecast in the short-term is somewhat tricky, since the lopsided nature of the convection with the system suggests that there could be some center reformations/relocations to the north and/or east later today. Thereafter, the main steering features are a mid-to-upper level low over the northeastern Gulf, and a narrow mid-level ridge to the northeast of the depression. Their combined influence should result in a general north-northwestward track over the next 24-36 h. The track guidance this cycle has come in further east this run, somewhat in response to the adjusted initial position. The NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward in response to this shift in the guidance, favoring the deterministic ECMWF (EMXI) over the GFS (AVNI), but it is not as far west as some of the track aids, including the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI) and European deterministic AIFS (EAII). The vertical wind shear over the system is probably the most unfavorable it will be as the system remains over the warm Gulf Stream waters. In fact, both the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows the current southwesterly shear decreasing from 20 kt currently to more like 10-15 kt over the next 24 h. However, there is some dry mid-level air lurking to east that might temper more robust intensification. All things considered, assuming the depression becomes better aligned vertically, at least some modest intensification should occur, and the latest NHC intensity forecast still shows a peak intensity of 40 kt before the system moves inland over South Carolina on Sunday Morning. While this forecast is on the upper end of the interpolated intensity guidance, the raw output from both the 00z HAFS-A and HAFS-B have a peak intensity a little above that value in 24 h. After landfall, the cyclone should weaken and is forecast to become post-tropical in about 48 h. It is a little unclear if the circulation will open up into a trough by early next week or if some remnant circulation will move back offshore beyond that time period. For now, the NHC forecast will stick to the former solution showing dissipation by 60 h. Given the eastward shift in the guidance this cycle, the Tropical Storm Watch has been extended eastward to Cape Fear, North Carolina this advisory. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across the coastal Carolinas will cause some flash flooding concerns from Tropical Depression Three from today through Monday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding could occur within more urbanized areas along the coastal plain of the Carolinas. 3. The system is expected to bring rough surf and rip currents to much of southeastern United States north of northeastern Florida during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 30.8N 78.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 31.5N 78.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 32.6N 79.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 33.7N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0600Z 34.8N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 07/1800Z 36.3N 77.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 08:49:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 08:49:40 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 05:46:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 08:49:36 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 000 FONT13 KNHC 050848 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) SURF CITY NC 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 15(16) 11(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 1 20(21) 17(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 25(26) 18(44) 3(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 9( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLESTON SC 34 2 30(32) 8(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 14(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN