National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 02:42:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 03:21:56 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 016 FONT14 KNHC 050239 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 146 WTNT44 KNHC 050239 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 Dexter continues to be disrupted by strong westerly vertical wind shear, with its associated deep convection being displaced to the east of the low-level center. The storm's cloud pattern is very ragged-looking at this time and lacks convective banding features. Satellite-based intensity estimates using subjective and objective methods range from 30 kt to 47 kt. Blending these values, the advisory intensity estimate remains 40 kt, though a recent scatterometer pass suggests this might be generous. Although there is some uncertainty in the center location using infrared imagery, it appears that the forward speed has slowed somewhat and the current motion estimate is around 050/11 kt. Dexter is near the southern edge of a belt of mid-level westerlies. The track guidance is in general agreement on a northeastward to east-northeastward motion for the next several days. However, it is possible that the system could become completely decoupled and move more slowly in the low-level flow. The official forecast assumes that the cyclone will retain enough vertical coherency to be steered at least partially by the mid-level flow. The NHC track forecast is fairly close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. There is no sign that the strong shear in Dexter's environment will abate. In fact, the SHIPS model indicates that the vertical wind shear will increase even more over the next few days. Therefore, it is not likely that the system will be able to strengthen as a true tropical cyclone. The official forecast allows for slight intensification due to baroclinic processes. Simulated infrared imagery and the FSU phase space predictions from the global models suggest that Dexter will likely make the transition into an extratropical cyclone in 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 36.8N 65.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 37.8N 64.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 38.9N 62.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 39.6N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 40.2N 56.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 41.2N 52.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/0000Z 42.8N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0000Z 46.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0000Z 49.0N 29.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 732 WTNT24 KNHC 050238 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 65.6W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 65.6W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 66.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 37.8N 64.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 38.9N 62.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.6N 59.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 40.2N 56.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 41.2N 52.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.8N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 46.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 49.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 130SE 100SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 65.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 734 WTNT34 KNHC 050238 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dexter Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 ...DEXTER SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.8N 65.6W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dexter was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 65.6 West. Dexter is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the east-northeast is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast over the next couple of days, and Dexter is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone by the middle to latter portion of this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...DEXTER SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 04 the center of Dexter was located near 36.8, -65.6 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042319
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dexter, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is currently
producing minimal shower activity. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form by the latter portion of
this week as the system moves generally west-northwestward across
the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Off the Southeastern United States:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop in a day or two
several hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern United
States. Some gradual development of this system is possible during
the middle or latter portion of this week as the system moves slowly
westward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dexter are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dexter are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 000 WTNT44 KNHC 041530 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 Several bursts of deep convection have formed with Dexter this morning, but the latest visible satellite images suggest the center is on the far western edge of the cirrus canopy, partially exposed. The intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain unchanged for 12 UTC, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS (ADT, DPRINT, DMINT) support maintaining a current intensity of 40 kt this advisory. Dexter continues to move northeastward, a bit faster than earlier at 050/12 kt. This general motion is forecast to continue for the next couple of days with a brief slowdown as the storm is steered by a narrow subtropical ridge located to its southeast. In around 60 h, a shortwave trough dropping southward from Atlantic Canada may try to phase with Dexter. However, the global and ensemble model guidance is split if their interaction will be favorable, causing the storm to accelerate northeastward, or unfavorable, leaving Dexter behind as a convection-less remnant low. For this cycle, the track guidance has shifted a bit faster to the northeast, and the NHC track has also been shifted faster, but generally along the same track as the previous advisory. It is worth noting that the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI) is a significant fast outlier, and it will be interesting to see if the overall model guidance continues to trend faster with Dexter's motion. Intensity-wise, Dexter is likely to face an increasingly hostile environment, with westerly vertical wind shear increasing above 30 kt in about 24 h. Thus, only a little additional strengthening is shown in the forecast for today, then capping the intensity at 45 kt through the rest of this week. However, since the cyclone will remain over the warm Gulf Stream waters until it passes poleward of 40N, it will likely continue to produce periodic bursts of deep convection, helping to maintain its intensity in the face of the unfavorable shear. After 60 h, the guidance remains split on whether or not Dexter will become a remnant low, or phase with the upper-level trough nearby, becoming a stronger extratropical low. While the latest intensity forecast shows the latter solution panning out, as mentioned previously, Dexter's final structure remains quite uncertain near the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 35.2N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 36.5N 65.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 37.6N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 38.5N 61.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 39.4N 59.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 40.1N 55.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 41.0N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1200Z 43.9N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1200Z 46.5N 36.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 14:47:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 15:22:06 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 000 FONT14 KNHC 041442 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 000 WTNT24 KNHC 041442 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 1500 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 67.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 67.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 68.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 36.5N 65.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 37.6N 63.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 38.5N 61.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.4N 59.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 40.1N 55.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 41.0N 50.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 43.9N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 46.5N 36.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 67.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 000 WTNT34 KNHC 041442 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dexter Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 ...DEXTER MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 67.4W ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dexter was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 67.4 West. Dexter is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A similar northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Dexter is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone by the middle to latter portion of this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DEXTER MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Aug 04 the center of Dexter was located near 35.2, -67.4 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

167
ABNT20 KNHC 041132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dexter, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is currently
producing only limited shower activity. In a few days, environmental
conditions are forecast to become favorable for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the latter
portion of this week as it moves generally west-northwestward across
the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Off the Southeastern United States:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop in a couple of
days a few hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern United
States. Some gradual development of this system is possible during
the middle or latter portion of this week as the system drifts
slowly westward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dexter are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dexter are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 08:44:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2025 08:44:49 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 000 WTNT44 KNHC 040843 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 500 AM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 Dexter remains a sheared tropical storm. Animated Proxy-Visible imagery shows a partially exposed low-level center near the western edge of the convective canopy, a function of moderate shear. With little change in the convective signature or satellite estimates during the past few hours, the initial intensity will stay at 40 kt for this advisory. The initial motion continues east-northeastward at 10 kt, with Dexter steered by mid-latitude westerly flow on the northwestern side of the subtropical ridge. Model guidance has come into better agreement on the system moving to the northeast or east-northeast for the next few days due to flow from that ridge, with fewer outlier solutions to note. Generally the models are a bit slower than the last cycle, and the NHC forecast follows that trend, though is still on the faster side of the guidance. The moderate shear currently affecting Dexter is expected to increase to over 20 kt by late today, with increasing environmental mid-level dry air. This should limit the potential strengthening to the short term, and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, near the model consensus. While strong shear expected in a couple of days would normally cause weakening, there is some chance of a favorable trough interaction causing non-tropical intensification, as shown by the 00Z ECMWF model. Most of the global models, however, do not show the trough phasing with Dexter, though they are showing a stronger extratropical low. The new forecast is just a little higher at 72-96h than the last forecast, and is now below the long-range model consensus. Dexter's extratropical disposition should be considered fairly uncertain at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 34.6N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 35.5N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 36.8N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 37.8N 62.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 38.6N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/1800Z 39.1N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 07/0600Z 39.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0600Z 41.5N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 095 FONT14 KNHC 040842 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 271 WTNT24 KNHC 040841 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 68.3W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 68.3W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 68.8W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 35.5N 66.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 36.8N 64.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 37.8N 62.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.6N 61.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 39.1N 58.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.5N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 41.5N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 68.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 272 WTNT34 KNHC 040841 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dexter Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 500 AM AST Mon Aug 04 2025 ...DEXTER FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST AND STAY NORTH OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.6N 68.3W ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM NW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dexter was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 68.3 West. Dexter is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster east-northeastward or northeastward motion is expected through early Tuesday, followed by a slower motion Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Dexter is likely to become post-tropical by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...DEXTER FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST AND STAY NORTH OF BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Aug 04 the center of Dexter was located near 34.6, -68.3 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.