National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 07 2025 530 WTNT34 KNHC 071448 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Dexter Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 07 2025 ...DEXTER BECOMES A STORM-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.4N 50.4W ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dexter was located near latitude 41.4 North, longitude 50.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Dexter is expected to continue strengthening as an extratropical low through early Friday. The cyclone is forecast to weaken beginning late Friday and Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Hagen

...DEXTER BECOMES A STORM-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 07 the center of Dexter was located near 41.4, -50.4 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 000 FONT14 KNHC 071447 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DEXTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DEXTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 685 WTNT24 KNHC 071446 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DEXTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 1500 UTC THU AUG 07 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.4N 50.4W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 34 KT.......160NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.4N 50.4W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 51.4W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.6N 47.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 44.2N 43.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 170SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 45.2N 39.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 140SE 130SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.9N 35.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 46.5N 30.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 47.1N 26.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 48.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.4N 50.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 060537
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dexter, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Off the Southeastern United States:
A weak surface trough located several hundred miles off the coast of
the southeastern United States is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to develop from
this system over the next day or so, and environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for additional development. A tropical
depression could develop late this week or this weekend as the low
drifts westward before gradually turning northward to northeastward
by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next
few days, and a tropical depression could form late this week or
over the weekend as the system moves generally west-northwestward
across the central tropical or subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2025 02:42:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Aug 2025 03:21:54 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 612 WTNT44 KNHC 060240 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 Strong westerly vertical wind shear continues over Dexter. Although vigorous deep convection continues to form within the circulation, this activity is persistently displaced to the east of the estimated low-level center. The cloud pattern remain rather ragged-looking with no well-defined banding features. The current intensity estimate is 35 kt, which is a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Objective intensity estimates are somewhat higher, but since the organization of the system has not improved since earlier today, the intensity is not increased on this advisory. Dexter is estimated to be moving east-northeastward, or around 060/10 kt. The cyclone continues moving along the southern side of a belt of mid-level westerlies. An upstream trough is expected pass just north of the system within the next 1-2 days, and Dexter will probably accelerate a little due to the influence of the trough. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous NHC prediction and close to the dynamical model consensus. As diagnosed by the Decay-SHIPS guidance, vertical wind shear is predicted to increase even further during the next 48 hours. Typically this would lead to weakening of a tropical cyclone. However, Dexter is expected to intensify somewhat due to its interaction with the approaching upper-level trough and baroclinic forcing, while losing its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is about in the middle of the model guidance. This is also close to the latest HCCA corrected consensus solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 38.9N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 39.6N 59.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 40.0N 56.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 41.1N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 42.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1200Z 44.0N 44.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0000Z 44.7N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0000Z 45.8N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 563 FONT14 KNHC 060239 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 0300 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 835 WTNT24 KNHC 060239 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 0300 UTC WED AUG 06 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 61.3W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 61.3W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 61.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.6N 59.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 40.0N 56.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 41.1N 52.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.5N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 44.0N 44.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 44.7N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 120SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 45.8N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.9N 61.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 836 WTNT34 KNHC 060239 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dexter Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 ...DEXTER EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.9N 61.3W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dexter was located near latitude 38.9 North, longitude 61.3 West. Dexter is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours while the system becomes an extratropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...DEXTER EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 05 the center of Dexter was located near 38.9, -61.3 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 20:47:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 21:21:56 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 024 FONT14 KNHC 052046 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 117 WTNT44 KNHC 052046 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 500 PM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 This afternoon Dexter continues to exhibit a pulsing convective structure. After briefly becoming exposed earlier today, the low-level circulation has tucked underneath a renewed convective burst on its down-shear side. Despite its ragged appearance, an earlier scatterometer pass indicated that Dexter's circulation had tightened up some with a smaller radius of maximum wind. The peak wind value retrieved was 35 kt, which still supports a current intensity of 35 kt this advisory. This value is higher than the 18 UTC subjective Dvorak intensity estimates, but a bit lower than the some of the objective intensity estimates (DMINT, SATCON). Dexter continues to move off to the northeast, with the latest motion estimated at 055/11 kt. This direction of motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a gentle bend towards the east-northeast, across the North Atlantic. However, the speed of the forward motion continues to be uncertain, with large along-track spread in the guidance. The GFS continues to be on the slow end, while the ECMWF and Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI) are on the faster end of the guidance suite. The latest NHC track forecast continues to favor the faster track solutions, and is a blend of the prior forecast track, with some of the more reliable consensus aids (HCCA). Vertical wind shear over the system is now above 30 kt out of the west-southwest, and is forecast to increase further over the next 24-48 hours. However, the majority of the intensity guidance indicates Dexter may strengthen due to baroclinic dynamics from a favorable trough interaction. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast shows some strengthening, peaking Dexter as a 50 kt extratropical cyclone in about 48 hours. This forecast is roughly in the middle of the intensity guidance envelope, though notably lower than the latest HAFS-A/B forecasts, which develop a potent sting-jet-like structure as Dexter becomes extratropical. After the extratropical low occludes, it should gradually weaken, eventually opening up into a trough by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 38.6N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 39.2N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 39.9N 57.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 40.6N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 41.9N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/0600Z 43.1N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1800Z 44.0N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z 45.3N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 678 WTNT24 KNHC 052044 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 62.2W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS.... 60NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 62.2W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.2N 62.8W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 39.2N 60.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 39.9N 57.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 40.6N 53.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 41.9N 49.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.1N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 44.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 45.3N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 62.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 679 WTNT34 KNHC 052044 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dexter Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 500 PM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 ...DEXTER MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.6N 62.2W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dexter was located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 62.2 West. Dexter is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with gradual acceleration over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours as the system becomes an extratropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...DEXTER MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 05 the center of Dexter was located near 38.6, -62.2 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051749
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dexter, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Off the Southeastern United States:
A weak surface trough located several hundred miles off the coast of
the southeastern United States is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. An area of low pressure is expected to
develop from this system over the next day or so, where
environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional
development. A tropical depression could form by the latter portion
of this week or weekend as the low starts moving slowly westward,
but turns more northward by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is currently
producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or over the weekend as the system moves
generally west-northwestward across the central tropical or
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 02:42:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 03:21:56 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 016 FONT14 KNHC 050239 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH