National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025 899 WTNT25 KNHC 170257 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 0300 UTC SUN AUG 17 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 65.1W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 110SE 40SW 150NW. 4 M SEAS....270NE 180SE 120SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 65.1W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.8N 66.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 45SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 60SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 105SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.3N 69.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.5N 70.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 65NE 65SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.0N 72.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 32.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 260SE 190SW 180NW. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 37.5N 65.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...140NE 170SE 145SW 110NW. 34 KT...260NE 290SE 255SW 225NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 65.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Aug 2025 23:48:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Aug 2025 21:21:58 GMT

Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025 000 WTNT35 KNHC 162348 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 800 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025 ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT ERIN IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 64.6W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM NW OF ANGUILLA ABOUT 150 MI...235 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Sint Maarten * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours in the Leeward Islands and in the next 48 hours in the Turks and Caicos Islands. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, as well as in the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 64.6 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn towards the west-northwest is expected later tonight with a decrease in forward speed, and a turn towards the north is expected to occur early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to move just north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday, and pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Sunday night and Monday. Recent data from both the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next couple of days due to inner-core structural changes. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated by hurricane hunter dropsonde data is 934 mb (27.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Erin will continue to produce areas of heavy rainfall through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals of 6 inches, are expected. Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Erin, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Leeward Islands through tonight, and in the watch area in the Turks and Caicos Islands beginning on Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may occur elsewhere over portions of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sunday. Squalls with wind gusts to tropical-storm force may also occur over the southeastern Bahamas beginning on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by early next week. These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT ERIN IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... As of 8:00 PM AST Sat Aug 16 the center of Erin was located near 20.0, -64.6 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 934 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 162313
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Erin, located about 100 miles north of the Virgin Islands.

Northwestern Atlantic:
The area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles off the
coast of North Carolina has not become any better organized over the
past 24 hours, with limited disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity displaced well to the east of the center. Some slight
development of this system is still possible over the next day or so
while it moves little over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. By
Monday, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable
for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form over the central tropical
Atlantic during the middle to latter portion of next week from a
westward moving tropical wave. Some subsequent development could
occur as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025 286 FONT15 KNHC 162128 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22...RESENT NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 2100 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 2(18) X(18) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 9(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PONCE PR 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN PR 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT JOHN 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025 470 WTNT25 KNHC 162127 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22...RESENT NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 2100 UTC SAT AUG 16 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.0W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 915 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 90SE 40SW 110NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.0W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 63.4W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.4N 65.7W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.4N 67.6W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.7N 69.2W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 24.0N 70.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.5N 70.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.3N 71.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 31.7N 70.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 230SE 180SW 180NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 36.8N 65.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 200NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 64.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025 219 WTNT45 KNHC 162043 TCDAT5 Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025 Erin's rapid intensification may have bottomed out near 16Z based on the last couple of passes of data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter. At that time, the maximum winds were near 140 kt and the central pressure was near 915 mb. Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft reported concentric eyewalls forming, and during the last couple of hours the small eye seen in conventional satellite imagery is becoming cloud-filled. This suggests an eyewall replacement cycle may be starting. The initial intensity is held at 140 kt pending the upcoming arrival of a NOAA Hurricane Hunter. The eye has started to gain latitude during the past few hours and the initial motion is now 280/13 kt - a little slower than before. The track guidance still suggests that Erin will turn back to the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed during the next 6-12 h on the south side of a subtropical ridge. This motion should then continue through 24-36 h. After 36 h, the western side of the ridge is still expected to weaken, due to a series of shortwave troughs moving through the mid-latitude westerlies, and that should cause Erin to slow further and make a gradual turn to the north. However, there remains a significant spread in the guidance in just when this turn will occur, and the spread has increased due to the 12Z ECMWF forecast shifting to the west. Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted to the left during the entire forecast track, and the new forecast track is also shifted to the west. The new track is still to the east of the consensus models during the northward motion, and additional track adjustments may be necessary in later forecasts. Fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 24 hours due to possible eyewall replacement cycles. However, Erin should remain a strong hurricane during this time. Between 24-72 h, increasing northwesterly shear should cause a gradual weakening, although there are likely to be fluctuations superimposed on this. After 72 h, the storm should start to encounter the mid-latitude westerlies where the shear will increase further. The new intensity forecast will show an increased weakening rate, but will keep Erin as a major hurricane as it will still be over warm sea surface temperatures during that time. Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, the models are in strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next several days. In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough ocean conditions over the western Atlantic. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall at times through Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next 48 h, where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect. Gusts to tropical storm force in Erin's outer rainbands are likely in portions of the northern Leeward Islands through tonight and over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday. Tropical-storm force wind gusts are possible in the Southeast Bahamas beginning on Sunday. 3. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week. 4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of Erin since there is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and high surf by the middle part of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 20.0N 64.0W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 20.4N 65.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 21.4N 67.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 22.7N 69.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 24.0N 70.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 25.5N 70.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 27.3N 71.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 31.7N 70.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 36.8N 65.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Aug 2025 02:35:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Aug 2025 02:35:55 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025 487 FONT15 KNHC 120233 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 0300 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025 081 WTNT45 KNHC 120233 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025 After struggling earlier during the diurnal convective minimum, a large convective burst has formed and persisted over the center of Erin for the past several hours, and a recent GPM microwave pass from 11/2237 UTC confirmed that the low-level center is underneath this burst. The latest subjective intensity estimates range from 35-45 kt, and the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have crept up slightly to the 40-45 kt range. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, which might be a tad conservative. Erin continues moving quickly westward, with the latest motion estimated at 275/18 kt. This general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 2 to 3 days as the tropical storm is steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge to its north. Towards the end of the forecast period, the ridge should erode some, which would allow Erin to turn toward the west-northwest and gain some latitude. However, there are some differences in the global models as to how significant the weakness in the ridge will be, and this will affect how far north the cyclone gets by day 5. Some of the recent model solutions are a bit farther to the left (or southwest) at the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is nudged only very slightly to the left at days 4-5, and now lies slightly to the north of the latest consensus aids. Based on the model spread, the confidence in the track forecast appears to be about average. Erin is expected to remain in low vertical wind shear conditions for the next 3-4 days. The thermodynamic environment is less favorable in the short-term, with sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) around 26-27C, and stable stratocumulus clouds noted just to the west and northwest of Erin. Only slow strengthening is forecast during the next 1 to 2 days until Erin reaches warmer water. A faster rate of intensification is anticipated after that time. The latest NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and lies slightly below the intensity consensus for the first 36 h. Thereafter, the NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. It is possible that vertical wind shear could increase in 4 to 5 days, but that will depend on where the upper-level ridge is situated in relation to Erin, which is uncertain at this time. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda, or the east coast of the United States. As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, it is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 17.6N 32.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 17.4N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 17.2N 38.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 17.1N 42.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 17.4N 45.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 18.0N 48.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 18.7N 51.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 20.3N 56.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025 740 WTNT35 KNHC 120233 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025 ...ERIN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 32.3W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 2020 MI...3255 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 32.3 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days with a gradual slowdown in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Erin is expected to become a hurricane later this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...ERIN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 11 the center of Erin was located near 17.6, -32.3 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025 291 WTNT25 KNHC 120232 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 0300 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 32.3W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 32.3W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 31.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.4N 35.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.2N 38.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.1N 42.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N 45.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.0N 48.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.7N 51.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 20.3N 56.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 32.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 112305
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several
hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center. Some
limited tropical or subtropical development is possible over the
next day or two as the low drifts westward near the relatively warm
waters of the Gulf Stream. By the middle of this week, the system
is expected to move northward over cooler waters, ending its chances
for further tropical development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Atlantic:
A weak surface trough of low pressure located over the central
Atlantic is interacting with an upper-level disturbance, producing
scattered disorganized showers. Development of this system is not
expected as it drifts generally northward over the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Northeastern Gulf:
A surface trough in the north-central Gulf is associated with a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While
development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland
on Tuesday, locally heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding
across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern
Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana over the next day or so. For
more information on the rainfall hazards related to this system,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Erin are issued under WMO header
WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on
Tropical Storm Erin are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

544
ABNT20 KNHC 110534
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with a well-defined low pressure area located near
the northwestern Cabo Verde Islands. The system will likely become
a tropical depression within the next day or so while it moves
generally westward. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected to continue today across portions of the Cabo Verde
Islands, and interests there should monitor the progress of this
system.

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so,
environmental conditions appear conducive for later development, and
a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form by the
middle to latter portion of this week while moving westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic.
Some gradual development is possible during the middle part of this
week while the system moves generally northward over the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
tropical wave located just to the southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds are possible today and Monday across the
Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic. Development of this system should be slow to occur
during the next couple of days due to surrounding dry air, but some
gradual development is possible during the middle part of this week
while the system moves northward over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

385
ABNT20 KNHC 091738
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
just off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter portion of next week
while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
Sunday and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are occurring in association
with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic.
Development of this system appears unlikely during the next day or
two due to surrounding dry air, but some gradual development is
possible during the middle part of next week while the system moves
northward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081130
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Off the Southeastern United States:
A weak area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles off
the coast of North Carolina is producing a few disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Development of this system, if any, is expected
to be slow to occur over the next day or two while it moves
northeastward at 10 to 15 mph. The low is likely to merge with a
front over the weekend, ending its chances for tropical or
subtropical development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing
minimal shower activity. Development of this system appears
unlikely during the next day or two due to surrounding dry air, but
environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive in a
few days. A tropical depression could form during the early
or middle part of next week while the system moves northwestward to
northward across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

914
ABNT20 KNHC 071727
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the final advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dexter, located over the north-central
Atlantic Ocean.

Off the Southeastern United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form over the
next day or two, a few hundred miles offshore of North Carolina.
Some tropical or subtropical development is possible this weekend
while the system moves northeastward over the warm waters of the
Gulf Stream, off the east coast of the United States. By early next
week, the low is expected to reach colder water and more hostile
conditions, ending its chance for tropical or subtropical
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing
disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become more conducive for gradual development in a few days, and
a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next
week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward
across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen