National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

...ELSA JUST WEST OF KEY WEST... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 the center of Elsa was located near 24.5, -82.6 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Elsa, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Pasch

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 06 Jul 2021 09:20:08 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060848 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 Elsa is now located over the Florida Straits, with tropical-storm-force wind gusts occurring across the Lower and Middle Keys. Doppler radar data and satellite images indicate that the core of Elsa is fairly small and has maximum winds of around 50 kt. The outer rainbands associated with Elsa are spreading northward across southern Florida, and a cluster of deep convection has been lingering over portions of central and western Cuba. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Elsa later this morning, and the data the plane collects will be valuable in assessing the storm's intensity and structure. Elsa is moving to the north-northwest at about 10 kt on the western periphery of a subtropical ridge that is located over the central Atlantic. The storm should turn northward later today as it moves in the flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level low over the south-central U.S. This motion should take the core of Elsa parallel to and likely just offshore of the west coast of Florida through tonight. After that time, a slight turn to the north-northeast is forecast as another trough moves across the north-central U.S. This slight change in heading should bring Elsa inland across the Big Bend region of Florida by early Wednesday and then across coastal Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday night through early Friday. Thereafter, the storm is expected to accelerate and move northeastward off the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. The NHC track forecast is basically unchanged from the previous one and lies close to the model consensus aid TVCA. Now that Elsa is gradually pulling away from Cuba, it will have an opportunity to strengthen. However, the environmental conditions are only marginal for the storm to do so. Dry air on the western side of the cyclone and some westerly shear should prevent rapid intensification, but the small cyclone will likely strengthen slowly before it moves inland over the Big Bend of Florida. The GFS model shows Elsa deepening by 5-10 mb before landfall, and the ECMWF shows even greater pressure falls. Based on these models, the intensity forecast is nudged upward and now shows Elsa just below hurricane force before landfall in Florida. After Elsa moves inland, steady weakening is forecast, but the system is expected to restrengthen over the western Atlantic as it transitions into an extratropical cyclone. Based on this new forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of the west-central and Big Bend Florida coast. In addition, it should be noted that much of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula is expected to see wind, rain, and surge impacts since that region will be on Elsa's east side. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for the Georgia coast and portions of the South Carolina coast. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves across the western Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across coastal Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of the west-central and Big Bend coast of Florida, where hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Florida Keys and much of the west coast of the state, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Georgia coast and portions of the South Carolina coast, where tropical storm conditions are possible late Wednesday and early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 24.1N 82.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 25.7N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 28.0N 83.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 30.4N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/0600Z 32.9N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 08/1800Z 35.5N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/0600Z 38.5N 74.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 10/0600Z 45.9N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0600Z 54.7N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 06 Jul 2021 08:48:32 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 060848 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 12(23) X(23) X(23) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) X(21) X(21) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 23(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 21(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 11(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 26(27) 10(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 4( 5) 28(33) 9(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 35(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 10(10) 50(60) 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) THE VILLAGES 34 X 23(23) 34(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) THE VILLAGES 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X 11(11) 16(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PATRICK AFB 34 2 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 34 47 12(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) NAPLES FL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 14 26(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) VENICE FL 34 17 72(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) VENICE FL 50 1 37(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) VENICE FL 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 2 77(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) TAMPA FL 50 X 31(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) TAMPA FL 64 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 47(48) 23(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 10(10) 20(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) APALACHICOLA 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 821 WTNT25 KNHC 060847 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL AND BIG BEND COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GEORGIA COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...AND ARTEMISA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA * MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 82.4W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 82.4W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 82.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.7N 82.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 83.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.4N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.9N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.5N 78.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.5N 74.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 45.9N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 54.7N 48.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 82.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/REINHART

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 17:49:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 15:24:43 GMT

Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 011749 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 200 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 ...EYE OF VERY LARGE LORENZO MOVING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.0N 36.8W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 36.8 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). The hurricane should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

...EYE OF VERY LARGE LORENZO MOVING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Oct 1 the center of Lorenzo was located near 36.0, -36.8 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011745
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located several hundred miles southwest of the western
Azores.

A broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any
development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it
moves to the west-northwest near the Yucatan peninsula in a couple
of days, and over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers that extend from the
southeastern Bahamas northeastward across the western Atlantic for
several hundred miles are associated with a surface trough.
Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves to the northeast at 5 to 10 mph, well south and east
of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 011454 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 Lorenzo remains a well organized hurricane this morning as it heads toward the Azores. The eye has made a reappearance in infrared satellite imagery, and the cloud tops associated with the surrounding ring of convection have cooled. The advisory intensity remains 85 kt, which is the consensus of the latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates that range from 77 to 90 kt. Lorenzo is expected to maintain its intensity today, but it will be moving over progressively colder waters and into an area of increasing shear, which should cause gradual weakening by Wednesday. The global models show the hurricane merging with a frontal zone, and becoming extratropical in about 36 hours. The extratropical low should weaken in a couple of days while it moves near Ireland and Great Britain, and then it is forecast to dissipate over Europe by 96 hours. Lorenzo is moving northeastward at 22 kt. The hurricane should continue to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the central Atlantic during the next day or two. After that time, the cyclone is predicted to decelerate and turn east-northeastward or eastward within the low-level westerly flow. The global model guidance is in excellent agreement through the first 36-48 hours, and has also come into somewhat better agreement on the eastward turn later in the period. The updated NHC track has been adjusted southeastward at 72 hours, but still lies north of the multi-model consensus. An additional southward and eastward adjustment of the post-tropical cyclone's track near Ireland and the United Kingdom may be necessary in future advisories. Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores. 2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 35.2N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 38.0N 34.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 42.8N 28.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 48.5N 21.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/1200Z 53.5N 16.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1200Z 56.0N 7.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 011453 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 72 28(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 2 98(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X 71(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 011453 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 37.9W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT.......170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT.......270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 480SE 480SW 600NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 37.9W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 39.0W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.0N 34.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. 50 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.8N 28.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. 50 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 110NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.5N 21.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. 50 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 53.5N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 30NW. 50 KT...140NE 140SE 150SW 80NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 56.0N 7.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 200SE 220SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 37.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 05:51:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 03:24:36 GMT

Issued at 200 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 010550 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 35A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 200 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 ...LORENZO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.8N 40.5W ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 40.5 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). The hurricane should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slight weakening is anticipated before Lorenzo moves near the Azores, with faster weakening expected on Thursday. Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores today and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...LORENZO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY WEDNESDAY... As of 2:00 AM AST Tue Oct 1 the center of Lorenzo was located near 32.8, -40.5 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 956 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010508
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lorenzo, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

A broad area of low pressure is located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea between Grand Cayman and Jamaica, and is producing a
small area of showers and thunderstorms. Development, if any, of
this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves to the
west-northwest near the Yucatan peninsula in a couple of days, and
across the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers near and east of the
southeastern Bahamas are associated with a weak surface trough.
Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves to the northeast at 5 to 10 mph, well south and
east of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 010245 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019 Lorenzo has not changed appreciably during the past several hours on satellite imagery, with an eye still present along with a large cloud shield in the northeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates remain near 90 kt so that will be the initial wind speed. The initial wind field has also grown according to the latest scatterometer data, and that is reflected in the wind radii analyses. The hurricane is now moving faster and has turned northeastward at about 17 kt. Lorenzo should continue to accelerate to the northeast during the next couple of days ahead of a large mid- latitude trough, and the model guidance remains in tight agreement taking the hurricane near the western Azores. The longer-range future of Lorenzo is a little clearer tonight as the global models are in much better agreement on the cyclone turning east- northeastward close to Ireland and then eastward across Great Britain, dissipating over western Europe by 96 h. The new forecast is shifted southward, and is close to a blend of the latest UKMET/ECMWF and GFS solutions. Lorenzo is forecast to slowly weaken tomorrow due to the cyclone moving over progressively cooler waters. Extratropical transition should occur by 48 hours, and there is unanimous global model agreement on Lorenzo keeping much of its strength through that time. Weakening is then anticipated while the low approaches Ireland and the U.K., although the wind speed forecast at 72 hours is deceptively low since the radius of maximum winds is possibly already onshore. It is also worth mentioning that there will be some enormous seas on the eastern side of Lorenzo. The hurricane will be accelerating to the northeast in the same general direction for a couple of days. Combined with the large size and intensity, this is a recipe for an amplified wave field on the eastern side due to a phenomenon called trapped-wave fetch. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/ Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, especially across the Azores. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 32.0N 41.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 34.1N 39.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 37.8N 34.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 42.9N 27.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 49.0N 21.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/0000Z 55.0N 10.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 02:44:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 03:24:36 GMT