National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 15:21:53 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 161500 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Fred became better organized on satellite and radar images this morning, with the center fairly well embedded within a small CDO and a large convective band over the eastern portion of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found flight-level winds that supported an intensity of 50 kt, and data from the aircraft also found that the central pressure had fallen to 993 mb, although the most recent pressures appeared to have leveled off. The satellite and radar data also show a dry slot over the southeastern quadrant. Fred is over very warm waters of near 30 deg C and within a fairly moist mid-level atmosphere. A little more strengthening is possible prior to landfall, but significant southwesterly shear is likely to limit strengthening. Also, the storm has little time remaining over water. The latest official intensity forecast is similar to the LGEM guidance. Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters and WSR-88D data from Tallahassee and Eglin AFB indicate that Fred is a little east of the previous track. It is not certain whether this is due to a slight reformation of the center nearer to the strongest convection, but that is certainly a possibility. Based on the most recent fixes, the current motion estimate is just slightly east of north, or 010/9 kt. Fred is moving between the western side of a mid-level subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak trough over the east-central United States. A slight bend of the track toward the north-northeast with a little acceleration is expected during the next couple of days. The official forecast is just a bit to the east of the previous one, and follows the most recent multi-model consensus. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland, heavy rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Storm Surge Warning area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area and will spread farther inland later today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 29.2N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 30.5N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1200Z 32.6N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0000Z 35.0N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/1200Z 38.0N 82.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 161455 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters were both able to locate a center for Grace--probably the most well-defined center observed over the past few days. That center now appears to be moving onshore along the Barahona Peninsula of the Dominican Republic as we speak. The planes measured several possible areas of tropical-storm-force winds from the SFMR, however these observations have not been supported by the more reliable 925-mb flight-level winds for weaker systems, which were only as high as 38 kt, and warrant maintaining the 30-kt initial intensity. Dropsonde data indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 1007 mb. The aircraft fixes confirm that Grace is moving westward, or 280/13 kt. High pressure over the western Atlantic is forecast to slide westward over the southeastern United States during the next several days, which should keep Grace on a westward to west- northwestward trajectory for the entire 5-day forecast period. This scenario is agreed upon by all of the available track models, and the new NHC track forecast has only been nudged slightly southward from the previous forecast based on the latest consensus aids. Grace's intensity forecast remains complicated by interaction with land and the possibility of some westerly shear during the forecast period. However, the southern shift in the forecast track takes the center of Grace more definitively over very warm 30 degrees Celsius waters in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Therefore, gradual strengthening is anticipated while Grace approaches the Yucatan coast of Mexico. Once the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, the shear appears to decrease, and conditions there will likely be conducive for additional strengthening. In fact, many of the models, including the consensus aids, bring Grace to hurricane intensity, and the NHC intensity forecast has therefore been bumped upward, bringing Grace very near hurricane strength by the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola today and tonight, and over Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba on Tuesday, spreading westward to the Cayman Islands and other portions of the southern coast of Cuba Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. 3. There is a increasing risk of wind and rainfall impacts over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 17.7N 71.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 18.2N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...S COAST OF HAITI 24H 17/1200Z 18.8N 76.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 19.4N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 20.1N 82.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 20.9N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 21.6N 88.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...N COAST OF YUCATAN 96H 20/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 23.0N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 161455 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) LA PESCA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) X(23) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 1(35) X(35) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 11(29) X(29) X(29) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 161454 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTS OF THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * JAMAICA * SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 71.4W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 71.4W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 70.8W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 73.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.8N 76.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.4N 79.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.1N 82.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.9N 85.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 21.6N 88.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 23.0N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 71.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 16/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 161444 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 Although the center of the depression is embedded beneath deep convection, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are not a consensus T2.5 quite yet. Therefore, the depression is still estimated to be producing maximum winds of 30 kt. Very warm waters and low to moderate deep-layer shear are expected to support strengthening during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, strong northerly to northeasterly shear of 25-30 kt is likely halt any intensification. For the most part, the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the tightly clustered SHIPS, LGEM, HCCA, and IVCN aids. As we've seen in several cases this year, the HWRF is a notable high outlier, bringing the system to category 2 hurricane strength in 2-3 days. Given the expected shear, that solution does not appear likely at this point. The depression has been moving southward, or 185/8 kt, and it is expected to rotate around a mid-tropospheric high located over the western Atlantic. Track models are in general agreement that the system will make a clockwise loop in the coming days, with most of the disagreement being in how sharp the turn will be. In part due to the system's initial motion, the updated NHC track forecast now shows a wider, sweeping loop and is close to the TVCA consensus aid. It should be noted that the ECMWF and HCCA aids are even farther south and show an even more gradual turn. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 31.3N 62.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 30.6N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 30.2N 63.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 29.9N 64.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 29.8N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 29.9N 67.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 30.1N 68.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 31.0N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 33.1N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 14:41:53 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 161441 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 5(16) 4(20) 1(21) 3(24) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 161441 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 62.8W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 185 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 62.8W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.6N 63.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.2N 63.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 29.9N 64.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 29.8N 66.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 29.9N 67.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.1N 68.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 31.0N 70.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 33.1N 69.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 62.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 16/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 14:39:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 15:23:04 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 161439 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...FRED EXPECTED TO BRING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 85.7W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Big Bend area is extended eastward to the Steinhatchee River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from Navarre to the Steinhatchee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 85.7 West. Fred is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should make landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early this evening, and move over western Georgia on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service observation site at Apalachicola, Florida, recently reported a wind gust of 37 mph (59 km/h). NOAA buoy 42039, located about 130 miles (215 km) south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday... Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Wednesday... Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States... 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions have begun to occur in portions of the Tropical Storm warning area. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and southeast Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 161438 CCA TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE. CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA IS EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND FROM NAVARRE TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 85.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 85.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.6N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.0N 84.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 38.0N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 85.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 751 FONT11 KNHC 161437 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COLUMBIA SC 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 4 6(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) AUGUSTA GA 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 80 2(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 16 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ST MARKS FL 34 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) ST MARKS FL 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) APALACHICOLA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 50 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) APALACHICOLA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 50 64 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) PANAMA CITY FL 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 49 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) COLUMBUS GA 34 19 24(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) COLUMBUS GA 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) WHITING FLD FL 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PENSACOLA FL 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOBILE AL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...FRED EXPECTED TO BRING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 the center of Fred was located near 29.2, -85.7 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161159
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, on
Tropical Depression Grace, located near the south coast of the
Dominican Republic, and on Tropical Depression Eight,
located a little over 100 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 11:48:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 09:22:53 GMT

Issued at 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 542 WTNT31 KNHC 121148 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...DISORGANIZED FRED MOVING BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 74.2W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 80 MI...175 KM NE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives * Southeastern Bahamas * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Guantanamo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 74.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to move across the southeastern Bahamas today, move along or just north of eastern and central Cuba later today and Friday, and be near the Florida Keys and south Florida on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but slow strengthening is expected Friday and this weekend. Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands recently reported a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1011 mb (29.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall this morning could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides. Over Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the eastern Bahamas, and Cuba...1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Across the western Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Beginning Friday into next week, heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact Florida and parts of the Southeast. Through Monday, 3 to 5 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in brief squalls, are possible along the northern coast of Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Cuba beginning later today. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and northern coast of Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and south Florida by early Saturday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DISORGANIZED FRED MOVING BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 the center of Fred was located near 20.7, -74.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fred, located about 40 miles west-southwest of Great
Inagua, Bahamas.

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
tropical wave located about 1400 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form by early next week while the system moves generally
westward at about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. This system
is expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday
or early Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 763 WTNT41 KNHC 120835 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Fred Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 The rugged terrain of Hispaniola has taken a toll on Fred. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the circulation is stretched out and seems to resemble a trough at the surface. The system is now emerging back over water and is located between Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas. Most of the associated showers and thunderstorms are located to the east of the estimated center, with heavy rains continuing over portions of Hispaniola. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, but there is limited data to confirm this. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Fred later this morning, and the data from both planes will be helpful in estimating Fred's strength and structure. Fred appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed much. A subtropical ridge currently situated to the north of Fred over the western Atlantic should continue to steer the system west-northwestward for the next 36 to 48 hours. This motion should take the storm just north of or across Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas during that time period. By the weekend, the models suggest that Fred will be rounding the western periphery of the ridge, which will likely a cause a slow down and a gradual turn to the northwest and then the north across portions of the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There is uncertainty in exactly where and when Fred will make that turn to the right, with models currently spanning a region from over Florida to the east-central Gulf of Mexico. The NHC track forecast remains on the right side of the guidance envelope, near the typically more skillful global models and consensus aids. Fred is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. This shear is expected to persist during the next day or so, and those unfavorable winds combined with some land interaction with Cuba should prevent the system from strengthening much, if at all, during that time period. The shear could lessen on Friday and since SSTs are very warm and there is abundant environmental moisture, some strengthening seems likely when Fred is approaching the Florida Keys and south Florida Friday night and Saturday. After that time, the intensity forecast becomes more complicated by how much land interaction there will be with Florida. Since the official forecast shows a track over the eastern Gulf, additional strengthening is predicted before Fred makes its final landfall along the Florida Big Bend region or Florida panhandle late in the weekend or early next week. However, that part of the intensity forecast, since it will be very track dependent, is more uncertain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Continued heavy rainfall today could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and potential mudslides in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas this morning, and in portions of Cuba later today. 3. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and possible rapid river rises across southern Florida. Heavy rainfall associated with Fred will impact the remainder of Florida and parts of the Southeast this weekend and into next week. 4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions beginning early Saturday in the Florida Keys and south Florida. These conditions are expected to spread northward along portions of the Florida west coast and the Florida Panhandle through Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 20.2N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 21.0N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 23.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 23.8N 80.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 25.1N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 26.6N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 29.5N 84.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 32.2N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi