National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 191434 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 70.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 70.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 70.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 29.7N 71.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.4N 72.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 31.9N 72.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.3N 70.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.6N 70.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 41.6N 69.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 42.3N 67.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 70.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191142
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Grace, located inland over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and on
Tropical Storm Henri, located several hundred miles southeast of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Fred, located inland over central New York.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT1,
WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 the center of Grace was located near 20.2, -88.8 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 15:01:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 15:28:31 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 181500 TCDAT2 Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Grace is becoming better organized on satellite images with a comma-shaped cloud pattern, and the upper-level outflow remains well defined. Wind gusts well into the hurricane-force range were measured on Grand Cayman earlier this morning, along with some damage on the island. Recent flight-level and SFMR observations from both the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft support sustained 65-kt surface winds, so the system is being upgraded to a hurricane on this advisory. Although Grace is situated over waters of very high oceanic heat content, moderate northwesterly shear and only marginally moist mid-level air could slightly impede intensification. However, some additional strengthening is expected before landfall tonight or early Thursday. Weakening will occur due to Grace's passage over Yucatan, although that land mass has relatively low terrain. Reintensification is anticipated over the Bay of Campeche on Friday, and the system should regain hurricane strength before reaching the east coast of mainland Mexico. The official intensity forecast is similar to the numerical model consensus. Grace has been moving west-northwestward near 13 kt. A prominent mid-tropospheric ridge is likely to remain in place to the north of the cyclone for the next several days. This pattern should keep steering Grace on a west-northwestward to westward track for 72-96 hours. The track guidance models are in excellent agreement and little change has been made to the NHC track forecast compared to the previous few packages. A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for a portion of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico later today. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning late tonight or early Thursday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge in portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued for part of this area later today. 3. Over the next few days, heavy rainfall across the Cayman Islands as well as portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding, with mudslides possible in the Mexican state of Veracruz. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 19.4N 82.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 19.7N 84.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 20.3N 87.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/0000Z 20.6N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 20/1200Z 20.7N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 21/0000Z 20.7N 95.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 20.5N 97.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 22/1200Z 20.0N 103.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 181450 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 6(37) X(37) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 8(54) X(54) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) X(22) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 1(34) X(34) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MERIDA MX 34 X 20(20) 48(68) 3(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) MERIDA MX 50 X 3( 3) 26(29) 2(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) MERIDA MX 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 7 87(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) COZUMEL MX 50 1 73(74) 3(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) COZUMEL MX 64 X 39(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BELIZE CITY 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 12 20(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GRAND CAYMAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND CAYMAN 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 181450 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO...INCLUDING COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CAMPECHE * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 82.2W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 82.2W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 81.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.7N 84.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.3N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.6N 90.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 93.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.7N 95.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N 97.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.0N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 82.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 181450 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT GRACE BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 82.2W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch is discontinued for the Cayman Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Campeche * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in eastern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located by Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 82.2 West. Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move away from Grand Cayman today. Grace is expected to make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday morning, and move over the southwest Gulf of Mexico early Friday. Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast before the center of Grace reaches the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Weakening will occur while the center moves over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, with restrengthening expected when Grace moves over the southwest Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Cayman Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area through today. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late tonight or early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over the Cayman Islands, portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State of Mexico....4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday night. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, with mudslides possible in Veracruz. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late tonight or early Thursday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica and the Cayman Islands to the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT GRACE BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 the center of Grace was located near 19.4, -82.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 14:37:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Aug 2021 14:37:22 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 181435 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 Deep convection has been increasing during the past several hours in association with Henri, and the cloud pattern mostly consists of a central dense overcast with some fragmented bands around it. The Dvorak estimates are steady at 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. However, the latest automated Dvorak values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are higher, so it is possible that Henri could be slightly stronger. An SSMIS pass from 1124 UTC showed some southward tilt of the vortex with height and revealed a small mid-level eye feature. Henri continues to move just south of due west at 7 kt. The storm is expected to move westward during the next day or so as it moves in the flow on the south or southeast side of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is expected to slide eastward by Friday as a mid- to upper-level low develops over the Ohio Valley and northeastern U.S. In response, Henri is expected to turn northward or north- northeastward on Friday and continue in that direction through the weekend. One complicating factor is that several of the models show a ridge building over the northwestern Atlantic and Atlantic Canada, which could cause the storm to stay on a more northward track closer to New England than currently forecast. The spread in the models for Henri's future track is quite large, with some guidance as far west as Long Island and as far east as 62W longitude. Overall, the models continue to walk left each cycle, and the NHC track forecast has again been shifted in that direction. NOAA Gulfstream IV missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled, and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the longer range track forecasts, users should be prepared for additional adjustments to the NHC track forecast in future forecast cycles. The storm is currently in an environment of about 15-20 kt of northerly wind shear according to the SHIPS model and analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Since the shear is expected to persist or become a little stronger during the next couple of days, little change in strength is predicted during that time period. After that time, the shear is expected to lessen and that should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane by the weekend. Some weakening is shown by the end of the period when Henri is forecast to be moving over cooler waters. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is just a little lower than the consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Swells from Henri could reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. 2. Uncertainty in the track forecast for Henri this weekend and early next week is larger than usual, and there is some risk of direct impacts from Henri in portions of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada during that time. Interests in these areas should follow updates to the forecast through the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 30.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 29.9N 67.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 30.1N 71.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 30.7N 72.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 32.1N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 34.2N 71.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 38.0N 69.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 41.0N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 181435 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 18(38) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) 1(18) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) 1(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 181435 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 66.6W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 66.6W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 66.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 29.9N 67.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 29.8N 69.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 30.1N 71.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 30.7N 72.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 32.1N 72.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.2N 71.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 38.0N 69.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 41.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 66.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 181435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 ...HENRI HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 66.6W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 66.6 West. Henri is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for another day or so. A turn to the north is expected on Friday with that motion continuing into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, but Henri is expected to become a hurricane by the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HENRI HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 18 the center of Henri was located near 30.0, -66.6 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181129
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Grace, located near the Cayman Islands and on Tropical Storm
Henri, located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of
Bermuda.

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fred, located inland over western Virginia.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on
Tropical Depression Fred can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT1,
WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 18:07:53 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 15:28:46 GMT

Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 171756 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER JAMAICA AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 77.5W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for Haiti is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cabo Catoche to Punta Allen A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the Yucatan coast later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 77.5 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near the northern coast of Jamaica this afternoon. Grace is forecast to move near or over the Cayman Islands late tonight and early Wednesday, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday, with some additional strengthening possible prior to the center reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Kingston, Jamaica recently reported a wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of Jamaica today. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area later this afternoon through this evening, and over the Cayman Islands beginning tonight and into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area tonight and Wednesday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti...an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas today. This heavy rainfall should lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2-4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch