National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 08:43:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 09:29:32 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 200842 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 200842 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 ...ROSE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 32.6W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 32.6 West. Rose is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion at a slightly slower forward speed is forecast over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening will be possible today. By Tuesday, however, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...ROSE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20 the center of Rose was located near 15.9, -32.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 08:42:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Sep 2021 09:23:22 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200842 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 32.6W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 32.6W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 32.1W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 33.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 35.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.0N 37.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.2N 38.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.2N 39.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.3N 41.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.2N 40.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 32.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS PETER HAS CHANGED LITTLE... ...TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 20 the center of Peter was located near 19.1, -59.5 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 200840 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0900 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 59.5W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 59.5W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 58.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.7N 61.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 63.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.4N 67.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.2N 68.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 24.2N 68.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 26.2N 67.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 28.5N 66.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 59.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171152
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, located over Louisiana.

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located about midway
between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands. However,
environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
is still likely to form over the weekend or early next week while
moving toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the central
tropical Atlantic and then near or north of the Leeward Islands by
Monday and Tuesday. Interests in the Leeward Islands should
monitor the progress of this system during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

The circulation associated with an area of low pressure located
about 150 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, remains
broad and elongated, and most of the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is displaced well to the north and east of
the center. However, this system is still likely to become a
short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm before it makes a
transition to a non-tropical gale-force low by Saturday or Saturday
night while moving northeastward at about 15 mph away from the
United States mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. Regardless of
development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the
mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. coasts and Atlantic Canada through
this weekend. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave located a
couple of hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally
conducive, and development, if any, of this system should be slow to
occur over the next few days while the system moves toward the
west-northwest or northwest at 5 to 10 mph over the far eastern
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas can be found under AWIPS header
TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov or hurricanes.gov

High Seas Forecasts for the system off the Outer Banks of North
Carolina issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center can be found
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 14 Sep 2021 17:53:37 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 14 Sep 2021 17:52:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Sep 2021 15:22:36 GMT

Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 141751 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 95.0W ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM SE OF HOUSTON TEXAS ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of High Island including Galveston Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Sabine Pass A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Cameron Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 95.0 West. Nicholas is moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion should continue through tonight. An eastward turn is expected over Louisiana by Wednesday. Little motion is anticipated on Thursday. NOAA Doppler weather radar and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the storm is forecast to become a tropical depression by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km), mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A TCOON observing station at Texas Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, recently measured a 1-minute sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) while a NOAA Ocean Service observing station at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches across southern Louisiana. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across these regions. Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...2-4 ft San Luis Pass to High Island, TX...1-3 ft Galveston Bay...1-3 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the Louisiana coast into this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions in the warning area across the upper Texas coast will diminish this afternoon as Nicholas moves farther to the east. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight across southern Louisiana. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...NICHOLAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 1:00 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 the center of Nicholas was located near 29.4, -95.0 with movement ENE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141742
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nicholas, located over the upper Texas coastal plain near
Houston.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of
days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form
while the system moves north-northwestward to northward across the
western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 14 Sep 2021 15:41:09 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 141457 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Doppler weather radar data from Houston and Lake Charles, along with surface observations, indicate that Nicholas has continued to weaken while moving farther inland. The strongest winds recently reported near the Texas and Louisiana coasts have been 33-35 kt at a TCOON observing station near Sabine Pass, Texas. The strongest winds over water south of southwestern Louisiana are based on Doppler radar average velocities of 45-50 kt between 5000-7500 ft. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt. The estimated central pressure of 1002 mb is based on nearby surface observations in the Houston metropolitan area. Further weakening is expected as Nicholas moves farther inland due to frictional effects, entrainment of very dry mid-level air from the southern Plains, and increasing southwesterly to westerly shear. The latter condition is expected to cause the low- and upper-level circulation to decouple in about 24 hours, which will hasten the weakening process. No significant changes were made to the previous intensity forecast, and Nicholas is now expected to become a tropical depression by tonight and degenerate into a remnant low by late Wednesday. Nicholas is now moving northeastward or 050 degrees at a slower forward speed of 5 kt. The cyclone should gradually turn toward the east-northeast by tonight, and move eastward more slowly on Wednesday and Thursday. It is possible that Nicholas could stall over southwestern or central Louisiana as the low-level steering flow collapses. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but slightly slower than the previous advisory tack. Although the winds associated with Nicholas will be weakening, heavy rainfall and a significant flash flood risk will continue along the Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas from the upper coast of Texas, across Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and urban areas. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the Louisiana coast into this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions in the warning area across the upper Texas coast will diminish this afternoon as Nicholas moves farther to the northeast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 29.6N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0000Z 30.1N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1200Z 30.4N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z 30.4N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1200Z 30.5N 92.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND 60H 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 141452 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 1500 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 3 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) LAKE CHARLES 34 7 7(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 8 6(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CAMERON LA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JASPER TX 34 9 4(13) 2(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) JASPER TX 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KOUNTZE TX 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FREEPORT TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 141451 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 1500 UTC TUE SEP 14 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PORT BOLIVAR...TEXAS. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED EAST OF CAMERON... LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT BOLIVAR TEXAS TO SABINE PASS INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 95.3W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 95.3W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 95.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.1N 94.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.4N 93.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.4N 93.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.5N 92.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 95.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 14:37:31 GMT