National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241105
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231121
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southeastern United States:
An area of low pressure moved inland overnight along the
north-central Gulf of Mexico coast, and is now located over
south-central Alabama. The low is expected to continue to move
over land today, and tropical cyclone development is not expected.
However, locally heavy rains associated with this system will
continue to spread northeastward across portions of the
southeastern United States over the next day or so. Additional
information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather
Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211124
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat May 21 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201115
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri May 20 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191118
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu May 19 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181120
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed May 18 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171123
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161112
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151116
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun May 15 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Today, May 15th, marks the first day of routine issuance of the
Atlantic basin Tropical Weather Outlook in 2022. This product
describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential
for tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The
Tropical Weather Outlook is issued from May 15 through November 30
each year. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM,
2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November,
the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A graphical version of the Tropical Weather Outlook is available on
the web at: https://www.hurricanes.gov.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221123
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Mon Nov 22 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181115
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141126
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 14 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles northeast
of the Turks and Caicos continues to produce a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms primarily east and
northeast of its center. Strong upper-level winds are expected to
prevent significant development of this system during the next day
or so. The low is beginning to move eastward and should accelerate
further to the east-northeast over the next several days. On
Friday, the disturbance is forecast to interact with a mid-latitude
trough and further tropical development is not anticipated after
that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131118
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and
adjacent Atlantic waters continue in association with a surface
trough of low pressure. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur during the next couple of days due to
unfavorable upper-level winds. The system is forecast to drift
northward through tonight, then accelerate eastward as a broad area
of low pressure on Thursday. Toward the end of the week, further
development is not anticipated since the disturbance will be
interacting with a frontal system. Regardless, locally heavy
rainfall is possible over portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121110
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 12 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located near the Windward Islands has continued to
become less organized this morning and development of the system is
not expected. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be
possible across portions of the central and northern Lesser
Antilles today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas. Development of this
system, if any, will be slow to occur during the next couple of days
due to unfavorable environmental conditions. The system is expected
to interact with a front by the end of the week and further
development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas during the next day
or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located about 100 miles off the coasts
of Georgia and South Carolina continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms, well to the northeast of the center of
circulation. Strong upper-level winds should limit significant
tropical or subtropical development during the next few days while
the low moves northeastward at about 5 mph off the coasts of the
Carolinas. Some non-tropical development will be possible over the
weekend due to the system interacting with a frontal boundary.
Regardless of development, this system could bring gusty winds and
locally heavy rain to portions of the Carolinas through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Oct 2021 14:46:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Oct 2021 14:46:17 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Oct 2021 14:44:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Oct 2021 14:44:46 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041443 TCDAT5 Remnants Of Victor Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 Victor is no longer a tropical cyclone. A timely 1048 UTC ASCAT-A pass confirms that Victor does not have a closed surface circulation. Since the system has degenerated into a trough of low pressure over the central Atlantic, this will be the final NHC advisory on Victor. An area of 20 to 22-kt scatterometer winds is noted well to the northeast of the trough axis, but these winds should diminish through tonight as the trough dampens and the remnants move west-northwestward. Hostile environmental conditions, including strong southerly shear and very dry mid-level air, will inhibit any redevelopment of this system. Additional information on the remnants of Victor can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 18.8N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 041443 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 Sam remains a formidable high-latitude hurricane this morning. An earlier 1102 UTC GMI microwave overpass continued to depict concentric eyewalls with a fairly well-defined inner-eye that was open over the southwestern quadrant. Although there has been a generally warming of the cloud tops in infrared satellite imagery, the eye remains apparent and the system is still fairly symmetric. A blend of the subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from both SAB and TAFB yield an intensity of 85 kt, which is used as the initial intensity for this advisory. Now that Sam has moved north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream it will be moving over progressively colder waters and into much higher vertical wind shear conditions by this evening, which should cause some gradual weakening. However, the interaction of the cyclone with a strong upper-level trough is likely to lead to the rapid transition of Sam into a powerful extratropical cyclone later this evening. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds until late Tuesday. Gradual weakening should occur after that time as the baroclinic forcing decreases, and the system is forecast to spin down slowly over the north Atlantic later this week. Sam continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving at 045/28 kt. A faster northeastward motion is forecast through tonight as Sam moves within the strong southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to slow down on Tuesday as it interacts with the trough/cut-off low. After that time, the system is forecast to turn east-northeastward, and then rotate cyclonically around the eastern flank of yet another cut-off low later in the week. The dynamical model guidance remains in generally good agreement on the overall track forecast scenario, albeit for some forward speed variations. The latest official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus in deference to the aforementioned along-track differences. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, portions of the Bahamas, and southeastern Newfoundland for the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 42.6N 45.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 46.5N 41.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 50.0N 40.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 06/0000Z 50.3N 38.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/1200Z 51.4N 33.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/0000Z 54.3N 27.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/1200Z 58.3N 24.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1200Z 61.0N 29.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1200Z 60.0N 29.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown