National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 800 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 010842 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Larry Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LARRY OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 24.8W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Larry was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 24.8 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days and Larry is forecast to become a hurricane by late Thursday or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LARRY OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 8:00 AM CVT Wed Sep 1 the center of Larry was located near 12.3, -24.8 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 010842 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 24.8W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 24.8W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 23.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.5N 27.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.6N 30.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.1N 33.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.6N 36.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.4N 39.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 18.2N 46.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.3N 50.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 24.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Sep 01 2021

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 01 Sep 2021 08:34:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 01 Sep 2021 09:28:29 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010833 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 After the earlier convective hiatus, a concentrated area of thunderstorm activity containing numerous lightning strikes has developed over and to the east of the low-level center. In addition, upper-level outflow has been expanding to the west, an indication that the hostile shear conditions that have been plaguing the cyclone the past few days has finally waned. ASCAT data around 0000-0100Z showed peak winds near 25 kt; however, the recent sharp increase in deep convection along with a consensus Dvorak subjective intensity of T2.0/30 kt supports increasing the intensity to 30 kt. The 30-kt advisory intensity is also supported by UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates of T2.1/31 kt from ADT and 39 kt from SATCON. The initial motion estimate is 340/08 kt. Kate is moving north-northwestward between a small mid- to upper-level low to the south of the cyclone and deep-layer ridge located to the north and east of the system. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn back toward the north on Thursday as Kate rounds the western periphery of the ridge. By Friday, recurvature toward the north-northeast and northeast into the mid-latitude westerlies is forecast when the cyclone will be lifted out by an eastward-moving deep-layer trough currently crossing the western Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but a little to the left of the previous advisory track, and closely follows the tightly packed consensus track forecast models TVCA and NOAA-HCCA. A 0505 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass revealed that Kate's compact circulation had tightened up considerably since the earlier 0100 UTC ASCAT wind data, which shows a broad and elongated inner-core wind field. Also, Kate is currently passing between two small upper-level lows to the north and south of the cyclone, which is aiding the upper-level divergence across the system, albeit somewhat constrained due to the short distance of only about 300 nmi between the two upper lows. Given the locally enhanced outflow and the recent increase in deep convection, it s not out of the question that Kate could restrengthen back into a low-end tropical storm during the next 24 hours or so. However, the entrainment of dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 50 percent should prevent any significant or rapid restrengthening from occuring. by 48 hours, moderate northerly shear and even drier mid-level air should cause convection weaken, resulting in a gradual spin down of the circulation and eventual dissipation by 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to but slightly lower than the consensus intensity models IVCN and HCCA, and the Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 25.7N 51.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 26.9N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 28.5N 53.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 30.3N 53.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 31.9N 53.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/1800Z 33.5N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 211 FONT15 KNHC 010833 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010833 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 ...TENACIOUS COMPACT KATE STILL HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 51.7W ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 51.7 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through this morning, followed by a turn toward the northwest by this afternoon. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast late Thursday and early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. Kate is forecast to become a remnant low on Thursday, with the remnant low dissipating on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...TENACIOUS COMPACT KATE STILL HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 1 the center of Kate was located near 25.7, -51.7 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010832 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 51.7W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 51.7W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 51.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.9N 52.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.5N 53.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.3N 53.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 31.9N 53.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 33.5N 53.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 51.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 271743 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...IDA MAKES LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE ON THE ISLE OF YOUTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 82.7W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF THE CENTER OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 145 MI...245 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and the Isle of Youth A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Alabama/Florida border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba and elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane warnings will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf coast later today. Interests in the Dry Tortugas should also monitor the progress of Ida. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located by Cuban radar and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will pass over the Isle of Youth during the next hour or so, move over western Cuba later today, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. Ida is forecast to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on Sunday. Reports from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast before the center moves over western Cuba later today. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. Sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has recently been observed on Cayo Largo, Cuba. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...4-7 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring over the Isle of Youth and are expected to spread over portions of western Cuba in the hurricane warning area by later this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are already beginning to reach portions of western Cuba and will continue through early Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the northern Gulf coast late Saturday night or Sunday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area late Saturday night or Sunday. RAINFALL: Ida is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. As Ida approaches the central Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama through Monday morning. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible across southern and central Mississippi. This is likely to result in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. SURF: Swells generated by this system will affect the Cayman Islands and Cuba through tonight. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 17:43:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 15:22:46 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271719
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Ida, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
near the Isle of Youth.

An elongated area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic
several hundred miles east of Bermuda is producing disorganized
showers and a couple of thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be marginally conducive for development, however, a
tropical depression could still form over the weekend. The system
is expected to drift eastward through tonight and Saturday, then
accelerate northeastward Sunday toward the central north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles
have become a little better organized today. Additional
development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression
is likely to form later tonight or Saturday before it moves into an
environment of stronger upper-level winds and slightly cooler
waters. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward
through tonight, then turn northward Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Another tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west African
coast by the middle of next week. Afterwards, environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development
toward the end of next week as the system moves west-northwestward
to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

...IDA MAKES LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE ON THE ISLE OF YOUTH... As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 the center of Ida was located near 21.6, -82.7 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 16:07:32 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 15:55:44 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 382 WTNT24 KNHC 271516 CCA TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CORRECTED TO ADD 64-KT WIND RADII AT THE 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON...LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 82.1W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 82.1W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 81.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.2N 83.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.9N 87.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.3N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.3N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 35.2N 87.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 82.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 27 Aug 2021 14:50:46 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 271449 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Radar imagery from Grand Cayman and Cuba as well as satellite data continue to show an improvement in Ida's overall structure this morning, with an increase in banding, the development of a small central dense overcast, and more recently an improved inner-core feature. Both the NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported that the pressure has fallen to around 996 mb, and the Air Force plane has measured flight-level and SFMR winds that support an initial intensity of 55 kt. Although there is still some southwesterly shear over Ida, the outflow has begun to expand over the northeastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. The upper-level trough near the Yucatan peninsula that has been imparting the shear over Ida is forecast to weaken and move westward during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should result in a more favorable upper-level wind pattern. This, in combination with warm sea surface temperatures and a moist environment along the forecast track of the storm are expected to result in steady to rapid strengthening. Ida is now foreast to become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba and once it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico a period of rapid strengthening is likely to begin, with the NHC intensity forecast explicitly calling for rapid intensification to major hurricane strength between 24 and 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is on the higher side of the intensity guidance but not quite as high as the slightly more aggressive CTCI, HWRF, and HCCA models. In addition to the increase in strength, the dynamical model guidance indicates that Ida's wind field will grow larger as it moves over the Gulf of Mexico and this is reflected in the NHC wind radii forecast. In summary, there is a higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will impact a large portion of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week. Ida is moving northwestward or 320/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from before. A mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to move westward and this should keep Ida on a general northwestward heading during the next 48-60 hours. This track will bring the storm across western Cuba later today, over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Saturday night, to the coast of Louisiana by late Sunday. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement with very little cross-track spread during the first 60 hours or so of the forecast period. After that time, Ida is forecast to reach the western portion of the ridge, which is expected to cause the storm to slow down and turn northward and then northeastward over the southeastern United States. The NHC track forecast is near or just east of the various consensus aids, in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean. Although the small spread in the guidance through landfall increases the overall confidence in the track forecast, users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the forecast track as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected later today and tonight in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. 2. The risk of life-threatening storm surge inundation is increasing along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Inundation of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Ida is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday, and the risk of hurricane-force winds continues to increase, especially along portions of the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans. Potentially devastating wind damage could occur where the core of Ida moves onshore. 4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, as well as the Lower Mississippi Valley, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 20.7N 82.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 22.2N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WESTERN CUBA 24H 28/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 29/0000Z 25.9N 87.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 30.3N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/1200Z 33.3N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/1200Z 35.2N 87.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 271448 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 34 3 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NAPLES FL 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 6(21) 1(22) X(22) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 10(19) 3(22) X(22) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 14(22) 3(25) X(25) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 16(26) 2(28) 1(29) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 25(50) 6(56) 1(57) X(57) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 27(39) 5(44) X(44) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 36(54) 5(59) X(59) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 3(21) X(21) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 40(61) 6(67) X(67) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 4(31) X(31) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 45(49) 27(76) 2(78) X(78) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 30(44) 1(45) 1(46) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 1(23) X(23) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 2( 2) 37(39) 53(92) 3(95) X(95) X(95) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 61(68) 8(76) X(76) X(76) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 9(52) 1(53) X(53) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 10(44) 2(46) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 46(74) 5(79) X(79) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 5(49) X(49) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 2(26) X(26) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 11(11) 59(70) 18(88) 1(89) X(89) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 27(65) 2(67) X(67) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 26(44) 2(46) X(46) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 55(70) 9(79) X(79) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 6(47) X(47) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 54(80) 6(86) X(86) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 43(50) 5(55) X(55) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 2(30) X(30) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 40(45) 12(57) X(57) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 53(65) 8(73) 1(74) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 7(40) X(40) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 56(70) 7(77) X(77) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 7(45) X(45) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) X(23) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 26(48) 4(52) X(52) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 2(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) 1(24) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 9(46) 1(47) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17) X(17) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) 8(51) X(51) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) X(22) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 36(49) 5(54) 1(55) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 7(33) X(33) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 5(29) X(29) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 6(36) X(36) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 4(26) X(26) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 1(15) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 5(27) X(27) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 13 17(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 34 41 4(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) ISLE OF PINES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 50 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ISLE OF PINES 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN