National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 171756 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER JAMAICA AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 77.5W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for Haiti is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cabo Catoche to Punta Allen A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the Yucatan coast later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 77.5 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near the northern coast of Jamaica this afternoon. Grace is forecast to move near or over the Cayman Islands late tonight and early Wednesday, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday, with some additional strengthening possible prior to the center reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Kingston, Jamaica recently reported a wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of Jamaica today. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area later this afternoon through this evening, and over the Cayman Islands beginning tonight and into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area tonight and Wednesday. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti...an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas today. This heavy rainfall should lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2-4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Near the coast,the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER JAMAICA AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 the center of Grace was located near 18.5, -77.5 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 17:47:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 15:35:02 GMT

Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 171747 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 200 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 ...HENRI STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 64.3W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 64.3 West. Henri is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster motion toward the west is forecast by tonight, followed by a motion to the west-northwest or northwest by late Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda through tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible today across Bermuda and the nearby waters, particularly to the south of the island. SURF: Swells generated by Henri are expected to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Please consult products from the Bermuda Weather Service for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HENRI STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Aug 17 the center of Henri was located near 30.4, -64.3 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171729
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Grace located near Jamaica, and on Tropical Storm Henri,
located over 100 miles south of Bermuda.

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories over Tropical
Depression Fred, located over northern Georgia.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on
Tropical Depression Fred can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT1,
WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 171452 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 1(16) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 4(23) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) LA PESCA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 5(38) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 4(35) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 1(19) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 25(60) X(60) X(60) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) X(26) X(26) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 31(33) 45(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 4( 4) 23(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 11(12) 12(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 87(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 59(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MONTEGO BAY 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MONTEGO BAY 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KINGSTON 34 71 X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 171452 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 The cloud pattern of Grace is gradually becoming better organized on satellite images, but the system still lacks distinct banding features over the eastern semicircle. Cirrus-level outflow from the system appears to be well defined. Flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds, as well as dropsonde measurements, support an intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Not much change in intensity is likely through this afternoon while the circulation of Grace interacts with the island of Jamaica. Thereafter, since the cyclone will be over the very high heat content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea with modestly low vertical shear tonight and Wednesday, strengthening is anticipated. Grace will likely become a hurricane tomorrow and continue to intensify before moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. The interaction with that land mass is expected to temporarily interrupt strengthening, with some reintensification over the Bay of Campeche in 3-4 days. The official intensity forecast is near the model consensus for the first half of the forecast period, but below the consensus for the latter part of the period owing to the inherent uncertainties for that extended time frame. Grace continues to move just a little north of due west, or at about 280/13 kt. A well-defined 500 mb ridge should remain entrenched to the north of the tropical cyclone for the next several days. Therefore, a continued west to west-northwestward track is likely to continue for most, if not all, of the forecast period. The official forecast is close to the previous one through 72 hours and just slightly south of it at 4-5 days. This is very similar to the latest multi-model consensus prediction. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the northern Yucatan Peninsula may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and Jamaica. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of Jamaica today, and over the Cayman Islands later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba today in the warning area, spreading westward to possibly other portions of the southern coast of Cuba this evening through Wednesday morning. 3. There is an increasing risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and a Hurricane Warning will likely be needed for that area later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 18.3N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 18.8N 79.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 19.2N 82.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 19.7N 85.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 20.4N 88.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/0000Z 20.9N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 20/1200Z 21.1N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 21.5N 98.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1200Z 21.5N 103.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 171452 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA ALLEN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN COAST LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 76.8W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 76.8W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 76.1W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.8N 79.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.7N 85.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.4N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.9N 91.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.1N 94.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 21.5N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 76.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 171435 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 4(11) 3(14) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 171435 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 Henri remains a sheared tropical storm. Geostationary satellite images and microwave data show a relatively large area of deep convection (~200 miles across), but the center of the storm is located near the western edge of the thunderstorms due to ongoing northwesterly vertical wind shear. The latest Dvorak estimates have been steady at 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The center of Henri is located roughly 130 miles south-southeast of Bermuda currently, and this will likely be as close as the storm gets to the island. The tropical storm is gradually turning to the west, as expected, and the initial motion is estimated to be 255/5 kt. A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic is building eastward to the north of Henri, and this feature should steer the storm westward at a slightly faster pace during the next two or three days. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken and shift farther east as a cut off low or negatively-tilted trough develops over the northeast U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause Henri to turn northeastward between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S in the 72-120 h period. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one in the short term and farther west than the previous one from days 3-5, trending toward the latest consensus models. The northwesterly shear currently affecting Henri is expected to subside later today, and that should allow the storm to gain strength during the next 12-24 hours. However, a round of moderate northerly shear is expected to setup over Henri during the 24-96 hour period. Although this shear would typically cause some weakening, the combination of warm SSTs and increasing mid-level moisture could offset the negative influences of the shear. Therefore, no change in strength is predicted beyond the 24 h period. Some of the models suggest that the shear could lessen again this weekend, so although not explicitly forecast, some strengthening is possible then. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 30.4N 64.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 30.4N 65.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 30.3N 68.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 30.4N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 30.7N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 31.6N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 34.1N 69.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 37.4N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 527 WTNT23 KNHC 171434 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 64.3W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 64.3W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 64.0W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.4N 65.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.3N 68.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.4N 69.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 30.7N 70.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 31.6N 71.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 34.1N 69.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 37.4N 66.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 64.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 17/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 17:37:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 15:29:15 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 17:35:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 15:34:56 GMT

Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161735 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM GRACE SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN HAITI... ...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE IN HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 71.6W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings are possible later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 71.6 West. Grace is now moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will move over or near the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti this afternoon and tonight, and then pass between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is expected to become a tropical storm again by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti this afternoon into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the southern coast of Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

...HEAVY RAINS FROM GRACE SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN HAITI... ...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE IN HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUESDAY... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 the center of Grace was located near 17.8, -71.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 161733 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 200 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL MOVING SOUTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 62.8W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 62.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow clockwise turn toward the southwest and then toward the west is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move well to the south of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL MOVING SOUTHWARD... As of 2:00 PM AST Mon Aug 16 the center of Eight was located near 31.1, -62.8 with movement S at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 15:40:36 GMT