National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022 000 WTNT41 KNHC 061449 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022 Alex continues to lack deep convection anywhere near its core, with the majority of the heavy showers and thunderstorms displaced nearly 200 n mi to the northeast of the center due to the persistently strong shear. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 700 mb center of the vortex is tilted some 30 n mi northeast of the low-level center, likely as a result of the shear. Based on a blend of flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft, the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. Given the lack of central convection and continued shear, some weakening and continued loss of tropical characteristics are likely today. However, the cyclone will probably maintain some of its intensity for the next day or so due to baroclinic processes. In 36 hours or so, the global models depict The post-tropical low merging with an extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic, so the official forecast shows the system as dissipated by 48 hours. The storm continues to move rapidly toward the east-northeast, or around 065/25 kt. Alex should remain embedded in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies and continue this general motion for the next day or two. The official forecast is close to both the simple and corrected dynamical consensus track forecasts, TVCN and HCCA respectively, and is also similar to the previous NHC prediction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue on the island of Bermuda for the next several hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 34.0N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 35.5N 59.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 07/1200Z 38.3N 52.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/0000Z 41.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022 000 WTNT31 KNHC 061448 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 AM AST Mon Jun 06 2022 ...ALEX BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 63.8W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 63.8 West. Alex is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast, and Alex is expected to become an extratropical low later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. During the past couple of hours, the Bermuda Airport reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue on Bermuda for the next several hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...ALEX BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Jun 6 the center of Alex was located near 34.0, -63.8 with movement ENE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

395
ABNT20 KNHC 061150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 6 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alex, located about 100 miles north-northwest of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Jun 2022 14:52:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Jun 2022 15:22:43 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022 085 WTNT41 KNHC 051448 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Alex has strengthened a little since the last advisory. The aircraft reported a central pressure near 993 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 89 kt at 850 mb in the southeastern quadrant. However, the maximum reliable SFMR surface wind estimates are near 50 kt, so as mentioned previously the strongest winds may not be mixing down to the surface. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set to a possibly conservative 50 kt. Satellite imagery shows that Alex remains sheared, with the strongest convection to the east and northeast of the center. This was confirmed by the aircraft data, which indicated that the 850 and 700 mb centers were displaced from the surface center. The initial motion is quickly east-northeastward or 060/20 kt. A general east-northeastward motion is expected during the next 24 h or so, with the center of Alex passing north of Bermuda on Monday. After that, the GFS, ECWMF, and Canadian models forecast an eastward motion at a slower forward speed as Alex weakens, becomes extratropical, and becomes a shallow and elongated vortex. The new intensity forecast follows this scenario and is similar to the previous forecast. However, by 72-96 h the forecast track is to the south of the various consensus models, and some adjustment to this part of the forecast may be necessary later. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 h. After that, a combination of strong shear, dry air entrainment, and cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause Alex to weaken. The cyclone is expected to become extratropical by 48 h and dissipate completely by 120 h. The new intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday, and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island late tonight and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 30.4N 73.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 31.7N 70.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 33.1N 66.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 34.2N 61.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 34.6N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/0000Z 34.9N 53.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1200Z 35.0N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 35.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 05 2022 095 FONT11 KNHC 051447 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022 1500 UTC SUN JUN 05 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 1 44(45) 15(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) BERMUDA 50 X 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051447 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022 ...ALEX MOVING RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 73.9W ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 73.9 West. Alex is moving toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) A fast motion toward the east-northeast is expected through Monday, followed by an eastward motion at a slower forward speed on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the tropical storm is expected to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible through tonight. After that time, Alex is forecast to weaken, and the system is expected to become an extratropical low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to bring 2 to 3 inches or 50 to 75 mm of rain across Bermuda late tonight into Monday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of Bermuda beginning late tonight or on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 05 2022 000 WTNT21 KNHC 051446 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022 1500 UTC SUN JUN 05 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 73.9W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 73.9W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 75.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.7N 70.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 190SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.1N 66.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.2N 61.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 34.6N 57.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 34.9N 53.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 35.0N 50.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 35.5N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 73.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...ALEX MOVING RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Jun 5 the center of Alex was located near 30.4, -73.9 with movement ENE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051125
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Alex, located over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Jun 2022 14:54:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Jun 2022 15:22:59 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022 000 WTNT41 KNHC 041450 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022 Radar data and surface observations indicate that the broad and poorly-defined center of the disturbance is spreading onshore in southwestern Florida, with the lowest pressure of 1002 mb in the Naples area. These data also suggest that a new vorticity center is forming along the east coast of Florida east and northeast of lake Okeechobee. The maximum winds remain near 35 kt, and these are occuring in strong convection over the water east of southeastern Florida, well to the east of the advisory position. While a cluster of convection is occurring near the center, the system is still not organized enough to be called a tropical storm. The initial motion remains 045/16, and some of this may be due to ongoing re-formation of the center. The track guidance is in good agreement that a general northeastward motion should continue through Sunday, followed by an east-northeastward to eastward motion Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the system will emerge or re-form over the Atlantic east of Florida later today or tonight, and then pass north of Bermuda on Monday on its way into the central Atlantic. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous track. Water vapor and air mass imagery show a mid- to upper-level trough over the southeastern United States and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While this trough is aiding strong westerly shear over the disturbance, the interaction between this trough and the disturbance is forecast to lead to a better-defined circulation during the next 12-24 h, which should allow the disturbance to become a tropical storm. By 72 h, this interaction is expected to lead to the system becoming an extratropical low over the central Atlantic. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the intensity guidance, and like the track forecast, has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of South Florida and the Keys as well as the northwestern Bahamas today. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across South Florida. Flash and urban flooding is possible across the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Florida today, mainly in squalls, and in the northwestern Bahamas by this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 26.5N 81.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 05/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 05/1200Z 29.7N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 06/0000Z 31.9N 71.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 33.7N 66.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 35.0N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 35.7N 56.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1200Z 44.5N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 04 2022 000 FONT11 KNHC 041450 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 04 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) W PALM BEACH 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) FT LAUDERDALE 34 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MIAMI FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARATHON FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 9(35) X(35) X(35) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 63 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022 000 WTNT31 KNHC 041450 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 1100 AM EDT Sat Jun 04 2022 ...DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA... ...FLOODING RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 81.4W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SW OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Florida Keys, the west coast of Florida west of the Card Sound Bridge, Florida Bay, and Lake Okeechobee. The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Card Sound Bridge * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible somewhere within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 81.4 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the east Monday night. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across southern or central Florida today, over the southwestern Atlantic north of the Bahamas tonight, and near or to the north of Bermuda on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm off the east coast of Florida by tonight, and some strengthening is forecast tonight through Monday as the system moves farther away from Florida over the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 210 miles (335 km) to the east of the center. Over the past few hours, a weather station at Fowey Rocks near Miami, Florida reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h) at an elevation of 144 ft (44 m). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of South Florida and the Keys through this morning, beginning to diminish this afternoon. Heavy rainfall will continue across the northwestern Bahamas through today. The following storm totals are expected: South Florida: Storm total of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected. Florida Keys: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding. Northwestern Bahamas: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Florida today, especially in squalls, and in the northwestern Bahamas by this afternoon. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1- 3 ft above normal tide levels in the extreme northwestern Bahamas. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible over the southern Florida Peninsula and Upper Keys through early afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 04 2022 000 WTNT21 KNHC 041449 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022 1500 UTC SAT JUN 04 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WEST OF THE CARD SOUND ROAD BRIDGE...FLORIDA BAY...AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 81.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 81.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 82.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.7N 76.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 31.9N 71.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.7N 66.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.0N 61.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.7N 56.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 39.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 44.5N 37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 81.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 04/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA... ...FLOODING RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 the center of One was located near 26.5, -81.4 with movement NE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041115
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 4 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone One, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today
or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Jun 2022 14:47:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Jun 2022 15:22:44 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Jun 2022 14:47:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Jun 2022 15:22:44 GMT