National Hurricane Center (NHC) Atlantic Map

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041718
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 4 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031715
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 3 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021720
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Colin, located along the coast near the border of
South and North Carolina.

Eastern Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean Sea, Puerto Rico, the
Virgin Islands, and portions of the Leeward Islands. Although
shower activity has increased a little today, significant
development of this system is unlikely due to strong upper-level
winds. This disturbance is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward across the Caribbean Sea during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Colin are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Colin are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 000 WTNT23 KNHC 021514 CCA TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 CORRECTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM LITTLE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 79.0W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 79.0W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 79.3W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 34.3N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 36.1N 74.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 79.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 000 WTNT33 KNHC 021508 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 2...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 ...HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUE ALONG AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... Corrected Watches and Warnings section SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.7N 79.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Little River, South Carolina southward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Little River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 79.0 West. Colin is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to move northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts through Sunday morning, and then emerge over the western Atlantic Ocean late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but Colin is expected to dissipate by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) mainly southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in North Carolina this afternoon through Sunday. RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches in eastern North Carolina, are possible. This rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Colin are affecting portions of the coast of the Carolina coast. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUE ALONG AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 the center of Colin was located near 33.7, -79.0 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 14:49:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 15:23:15 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 128 WTNT43 KNHC 021449 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 The center of Colin remains just inland over eastern South Carolina this morning, but nearly all of the heavy rains and strong winds are off the coastline of South and North Carolina. This asymmetric structure is due to about 20 kt of northwesterly shear, and since the shear is not expected to abate, the worst weather conditions should remain along and off the coast throughout the day and into Sunday. The initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. Colin's future looks pretty short. An approaching cold front will likely cause the circulation to become increasingly elongated tonight and Sunday, and the system is expected to dissipate or merge with the front by early Monday. Little change in intensity is expected prior to dissipation. The storm is moving northeastward at 6 kt. A slightly faster northeast to east-northeast motion is expected, which should take the center of Colin along or just offshore of the Carolina coast during the next 24 hours, followed by a track over the western Atlantic. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday. 2. Rough surf and rip currents are likely to continue along the North Carolina coast through Sunday. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding across portions of coastal North Carolina through Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 33.7N 79.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 12H 03/0000Z 34.3N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 03/1200Z 35.2N 76.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND 36H 04/0000Z 36.1N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN 48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 453 FONT13 KNHC 021448 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 2 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) RALEIGH NC 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 27(30) 8(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CHERRY PT NC 34 26 11(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW RIVER NC 34 19 24(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 26 19(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 52 4(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) SURF CITY NC 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 54 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) WILMINGTON NC 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 62 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) BALD HEAD ISL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) GEORGETOWN SC 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

840
ABNT20 KNHC 021138 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Corrected typo in paragraph for the eastern Caribbean Sea system

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Colin, located near the South Carolina coast and on Tropical
Storm Bonnie, located inland near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border.

Eastern Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Islands and eastern
Caribbean Sea. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant
development as the system moves west-northwestward during the next
few days across the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Colin are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Colin are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Jul 2022 14:57:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Jul 2022 15:22:47 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 000 WTNT42 KNHC 011455 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 Tropical Storm Bonnie has formed this morning over the western Caribbean Sea. Well-organized deep convection has persisted into the morning, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission found a well-defined circulation center located about 100 n mi east of the Nicaragua coast. The plane found flight-level winds of 44 kt in the northeast quadrant, and SFMR data indicated 33 kt surface winds, supporting an initial intensity of 35 kt. Another reconnaissance mission is scheduled later today. Bonnie is moving just south of due west at 260/17 kt and has tracked slightly farther south than the prior forecast. The storm is expected to make landfall late tonight near the Nicaragua and Costa Rica border. After traversing Central America, Bonnie is expected to emerge over the eastern Pacific waters on Saturday, and it is forecast to turn west-northwestward shortly thereafter and track parallel to the coast of Central America and Mexico for the next several days. The track guidance is in good agreement during the forecast period, with the ECMWF still the northernmost solution and closest to land, while remaining offshore. The new forecast is slightly south of the previous forecast, partially based on the initial motion and position. Given the expected proximity to land, interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala and southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor Bonnie's progress during the next several days. Bonnie remains in a low-shear and warm SST environment and is forecast to intensify during the next 12 hours prior to landfall. The official intensity forecast at 12 hours is at the high end of the intensity guidance. After Bonnie emerges into the eastern Pacific, the intensity forecast is similar to the prior forecast and aligned with the consensus intensity guidance for the remainder of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is likely across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica today into Saturday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres today, along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by this evening, and along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua overnight and early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 11.2N 81.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 11.0N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 11.0N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/0000Z 11.1N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 03/1200Z 11.7N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 12.5N 93.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 13.4N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 15.1N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 16.3N 107.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 000 WTNT32 KNHC 011455 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 ...BONNIE HAS FORMED AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 81.0W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the Caribbean coast and issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Pacific coast. The government of Costa Rica has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the Pacific coast. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres Colombia * Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua * Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 81.0 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and a continued westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Saturday night. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday. On the forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes landfall tonight. After landfall, short term weakening is forecast on Saturday, but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this weekend and early next week over the eastern Pacific. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) north of the center. The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1005 mb (29.68 inches) based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres Island today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this evening and will spread westward to the Pacific coast within the warning areas overnight. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 01 2022 000 FONT12 KNHC 011454 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022 1500 UTC FRI JUL 01 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BLUEFIELDS 34 14 41(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) SAN ANDRES 34 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) LIMON 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT

...BONNIE HAS FORMED AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 the center of Bonnie was located near 11.2, -81.0 with movement W at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Western Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located about 100 miles east of the Windward Islands
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
associated shower activity and gusty winds are expected to spread
across the Windward Islands later today. Any development of this
system should be slow to occur during the next day or so before the
wave moves into unfavorable conditions over the eastern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Hogsett

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Jun 2022 14:53:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Jun 2022 15:24:19 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 000 WTNT42 KNHC 301450 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 1100 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022 The disturbance has not become significantly better organized since yesterday with a large curved convective band over the northern portion of the system. Some limited deep convection is forming near the location of the low-level vorticity maximum, which is where a center is expected to form. However, visible satellite images and surface observations along the coast of Colombia indicate that the system still has not developed a well-defined center of circulation, so the disturbance will be kept as a potential tropical cyclone for now. The advisory intensity remains at 35 kt, just above the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to be in the area this afternoon to determine whether a closed circulation has formed and to better assess the intensity of the system. The initial motion estimate remains rapidly westward, 270/17 kt. A strong mid-level ridge extending southwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea should force the disturbance/tropical cyclone on a slightly south-of-due-west heading as it moves toward Central America. A more zonal orientation of the ridge after after 36 hours will likely result in a more westward motion across Central America and into the eastern North Pacific. In 3-5 days, the system should move west-northwestward, south of the coast of Mexico, on the southwest side of the ridge. The official track forecast is quite close to the previous one and also in close agreement with the latest multi-model consensus, TVCN. The expected slowing of forward speed makes it more likely that the disturbance will acquire a closed circulation soon. A very low-shear environment with SSTs near 28 deg C and fairly moist low- to mid-tropospheric air favors intensification of the system until it reaches Central America. The official forecast is close to the simple and corrected intensity model consensus. The NHC forecast does not explicitly show the system reaching hurricane strength over the southwestern Caribbean. However since there is a possibility it could strengthen into a hurricane, the Hurricane Watch is maintained for a portion of the coast of Nicaragua. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible across portions of northern Colombia through this morning, and then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua late Friday. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres on Friday, along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning areas late Friday, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 12.0N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 01/0000Z 11.7N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 01/1200Z 11.2N 80.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 11.1N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 11.0N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 03/0000Z 11.2N 87.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN 72H 03/1200Z 11.8N 90.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 13.2N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 14.5N 102.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 30 2022 000 FONT12 KNHC 301449 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022 1500 UTC THU JUN 30 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) 18(18) 19(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN ANDRES 34 X 15(15) 23(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LIMON 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) LIMON 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 30 2022 386 WTNT22 KNHC 301449 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022 1500 UTC THU JUN 30 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SANDINO. THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM LIMON NORTHWARD TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM CABO BLANCO NORTHWARD TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS NICARAGUA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES COLOMBIA * LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SANDINO NICARAGUA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG BOTH THE CARIBBEAN AND PACIFIC COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 74.0W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 74.0W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 73.1W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 11.7N 77.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.2N 80.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.1N 83.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.0N 85.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 11.2N 87.8W...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 11.8N 90.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 13.2N 96.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 14.5N 102.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 74.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 30/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH