Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, The general pattern is forecast to slowly amplify as weak troughing with broad cyclonic flow will persist over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. At the same time, ridging will intensify over the West. This will favor increasingly strong (80-100 kts) northwesterly flow over the central US. As a result, strong high pressure at the surface is expected over the northern Plains and Southeast. With cold temperatures and dry/stable offshore flow, little to no buoyancy is expected inland, aside from extreme southern/coastal TX. This will suppress thunderstorm potential below 10% coverage. ..Lyons.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing across terrain-favored areas of southern California. The favorable offshore wind surface-pressure gradient should hold on a little longer today than previously expected, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions lasting into and perhaps through the day -- especially in terrain-favored areas. Here, winds may gust to near 30 mph and relative humidity may fall into the upper single digits. Late in the forecast period, winds may begin to turn more toward the southwest as a mid-level trough approaches the California coast. As the winds switch to the southwest, an inland surge of higher humidity should bring to an end this offshore wind event. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0001 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0001 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0550 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Areas affected...South-central IA Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 021150Z - 021445Z SUMMARY...A focused burst of moderate to heavy snow should continue to impact the I-80 corridor and overspread the I-35 corridor in the south-central Iowa vicinity through mid-morning. Rates near 1 inch per hour may occur within a narrow portion of the band into parts of the Des Moines Metro Area. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse progressing across the Mid-MO Valley, a focused corridor of frontogenetic forcing for ascent has yield a comma-shaped snow band across parts of west-central to southwest IA. Multiple observations have reported 1/4 to 1/2 mile visibility, albeit briefly, generally along and north of I-80. Early-morning guidance suggests frontogenesis will subside towards late morning, with recent HRRR runs indicating a loss of comma-head shape into more of a west/east-oriented band as this occurs. While snow rates around 1 in/hr should peak through 15Z, more moderate snow rates near 0.5 in/hr may linger into midday. ..Grams.. 01/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX... LAT...LON 42059457 42159369 41989236 41659200 41209213 40919278 40879394 41059479 41279498 41729475 42059457 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow will persist through the period over much of the central/eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained over the Southeast. This will limit Gulf moisture to parts of coastal TX, with minimal potential for thunderstorms over land due to weak instability and poor lapse rates aloft. Dry and/or stable conditions are expected across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Gleason/Grams.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow will persist through the period over much of the central/eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained over the Southeast. This will limit Gulf moisture to parts of coastal TX, with minimal potential for thunderstorms over land due to weak instability and poor lapse rates aloft. Dry and/or stable conditions are expected across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Gleason/Grams.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow will persist through the period over much of the central/eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained over the Southeast. This will limit Gulf moisture to parts of coastal TX, with minimal potential for thunderstorms over land due to weak instability and poor lapse rates aloft. Dry and/or stable conditions are expected across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Gleason/Grams.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow will persist through the period over much of the central/eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained over the Southeast. This will limit Gulf moisture to parts of coastal TX, with minimal potential for thunderstorms over land due to weak instability and poor lapse rates aloft. Dry and/or stable conditions are expected across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Gleason/Grams.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow will persist through the period over much of the central/eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained over the Southeast. This will limit Gulf moisture to parts of coastal TX, with minimal potential for thunderstorms over land due to weak instability and poor lapse rates aloft. Dry and/or stable conditions are expected across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Gleason/Grams.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow will persist through the period over much of the central/eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained over the Southeast. This will limit Gulf moisture to parts of coastal TX, with minimal potential for thunderstorms over land due to weak instability and poor lapse rates aloft. Dry and/or stable conditions are expected across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Gleason/Grams.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow will persist through the period over much of the central/eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained over the Southeast. This will limit Gulf moisture to parts of coastal TX, with minimal potential for thunderstorms over land due to weak instability and poor lapse rates aloft. Dry and/or stable conditions are expected across the remainder of the CONUS. ..Gleason/Grams.. 01/02/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will extend from western/central KS into the TX Hill Country early D4/Sunday morning. This shortwave is then forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day, likely reaching the Mid MS Valley by D5/Monday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, with an attendant cold front sweeping eastward across east TX and Lower MS Valley. A warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints will precede this front, which should be sufficient for modest buoyancy despite a relatively warm profile and poor lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front, with some potential for isolated discrete storms ahead of the front as well. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend across the warm sector, resulting in deep-layer vertical shear strong enough to support organized storms (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear from 40 to 50 kt). General expectation is for the development of a fast-moving convective line capable of strong to severe gusts along the cold front, supported by modest buoyancy and deep-layer shear orthogonal to the front. Strengthening low-level flow (i.e. 50 to 60 kt at 850 mb) could also support enough low-level shear for line-embedded circulations as well. Some thunderstorms will remain possible across the Southeast on D5/Monday as the front continues eastward. However, limited low-level moisture ahead of the front should limit the severe thunderstorm threat. From D6/Tuesday through D8/Thursday, cold and stable conditions are expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will extend from western/central KS into the TX Hill Country early D4/Sunday morning. This shortwave is then forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day, likely reaching the Mid MS Valley by D5/Monday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, with an attendant cold front sweeping eastward across east TX and Lower MS Valley. A warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints will precede this front, which should be sufficient for modest buoyancy despite a relatively warm profile and poor lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front, with some potential for isolated discrete storms ahead of the front as well. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend across the warm sector, resulting in deep-layer vertical shear strong enough to support organized storms (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear from 40 to 50 kt). General expectation is for the development of a fast-moving convective line capable of strong to severe gusts along the cold front, supported by modest buoyancy and deep-layer shear orthogonal to the front. Strengthening low-level flow (i.e. 50 to 60 kt at 850 mb) could also support enough low-level shear for line-embedded circulations as well. Some thunderstorms will remain possible across the Southeast on D5/Monday as the front continues eastward. However, limited low-level moisture ahead of the front should limit the severe thunderstorm threat. From D6/Tuesday through D8/Thursday, cold and stable conditions are expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will extend from western/central KS into the TX Hill Country early D4/Sunday morning. This shortwave is then forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day, likely reaching the Mid MS Valley by D5/Monday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, with an attendant cold front sweeping eastward across east TX and Lower MS Valley. A warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints will precede this front, which should be sufficient for modest buoyancy despite a relatively warm profile and poor lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front, with some potential for isolated discrete storms ahead of the front as well. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend across the warm sector, resulting in deep-layer vertical shear strong enough to support organized storms (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear from 40 to 50 kt). General expectation is for the development of a fast-moving convective line capable of strong to severe gusts along the cold front, supported by modest buoyancy and deep-layer shear orthogonal to the front. Strengthening low-level flow (i.e. 50 to 60 kt at 850 mb) could also support enough low-level shear for line-embedded circulations as well. Some thunderstorms will remain possible across the Southeast on D5/Monday as the front continues eastward. However, limited low-level moisture ahead of the front should limit the severe thunderstorm threat. From D6/Tuesday through D8/Thursday, cold and stable conditions are expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will extend from western/central KS into the TX Hill Country early D4/Sunday morning. This shortwave is then forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day, likely reaching the Mid MS Valley by D5/Monday morning. An associated surface low will move just ahead of the parent shortwave, with an attendant cold front sweeping eastward across east TX and Lower MS Valley. A warm sector characterized by low to mid 60s dewpoints will precede this front, which should be sufficient for modest buoyancy despite a relatively warm profile and poor lapse rates. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front, with some potential for isolated discrete storms ahead of the front as well. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend across the warm sector, resulting in deep-layer vertical shear strong enough to support organized storms (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear from 40 to 50 kt). General expectation is for the development of a fast-moving convective line capable of strong to severe gusts along the cold front, supported by modest buoyancy and deep-layer shear orthogonal to the front. Strengthening low-level flow (i.e. 50 to 60 kt at 850 mb) could also support enough low-level shear for line-embedded circulations as well. Some thunderstorms will remain possible across the Southeast on D5/Monday as the front continues eastward. However, limited low-level moisture ahead of the front should limit the severe thunderstorm threat. From D6/Tuesday through D8/Thursday, cold and stable conditions are expected to preclude thunderstorm development across the CONUS. Read more