Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is expected to progress from the western Great Basin through the central Rockies and into central/southern Plains on D4/Saturday, continuing eastward across the Mid/Lower MS Valley on D5/Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this wave over the southern High Plains on D4/Saturday, with the resulting low tracking eastward across OK. Strengthening low-level southerly flow ahead of this low will result in moderate moisture advection, with a warm sector characterized by 60s dewpoints preceding the low and its attendant cold front. Thunderstorms are possible from central TX/OK eastward through the Lower MS Valley on D5/Sunday, as the cold front interacts with the moderately moist and buoyant air within the warm sector. Deep-layer vertical shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms (i.e. greater than 40 kt from 0-6 km). Latest deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS continued to show notable differences, particularly with the overall speed of the shortwave and its associated surface low. However, EPS and GEFS members shows greater consistency, with numerous members placing the surface low over the AR vicinity by D5/Sunday evening. Consequently, there is increased confidence that the environment over the Lower MS Valley will support severe thunderstorms D5/Sunday afternoon, with the threat potentially continuing into the Southeast overnight. The risk for thunderstorms will likely continue across the Southeast on D6/Monday as this system continues eastward. Cold and dry conditions are anticipated across the entire CONUS on D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing at the start of the forecast period on Thursday as persistent modest offshore winds continue. During the day on Thursday, the surface pressure gradient will weaken, likely bringing an end to this round of offshore wind. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Marsh.. 01/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing at the start of the forecast period on Thursday as persistent modest offshore winds continue. During the day on Thursday, the surface pressure gradient will weaken, likely bringing an end to this round of offshore wind. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Marsh.. 01/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing at the start of the forecast period on Thursday as persistent modest offshore winds continue. During the day on Thursday, the surface pressure gradient will weaken, likely bringing an end to this round of offshore wind. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Marsh.. 01/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions should be ongoing at the start of the forecast period on Thursday as persistent modest offshore winds continue. During the day on Thursday, the surface pressure gradient will weaken, likely bringing an end to this round of offshore wind. Elsewhere, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Marsh.. 01/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions continue across portions of Southern California as a result of persistent weak offshore flow. These elevated conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the outlook period before surface pressure gradients relax during the day. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, surface pressure gradients will once again increase resulting in an increase in offshore winds and one more night of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 01/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions continue across portions of Southern California as a result of persistent weak offshore flow. These elevated conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the outlook period before surface pressure gradients relax during the day. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, surface pressure gradients will once again increase resulting in an increase in offshore winds and one more night of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 01/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions continue across portions of Southern California as a result of persistent weak offshore flow. These elevated conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the outlook period before surface pressure gradients relax during the day. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, surface pressure gradients will once again increase resulting in an increase in offshore winds and one more night of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 01/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions continue across portions of Southern California as a result of persistent weak offshore flow. These elevated conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the outlook period before surface pressure gradients relax during the day. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, surface pressure gradients will once again increase resulting in an increase in offshore winds and one more night of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 01/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions continue across portions of Southern California as a result of persistent weak offshore flow. These elevated conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the outlook period before surface pressure gradients relax during the day. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, surface pressure gradients will once again increase resulting in an increase in offshore winds and one more night of elevated fire weather conditions. ..Marsh.. 01/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern early Friday morning will likely be characterized by western CONUS ridging and central/eastern CONUS troughing. A pair of phased shortwave troughs are forecast to move through the eastern CONUS troughing and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Mid-level flow will strengthen in the wake of these waves, coincident with another shortwave trough dropping from the northern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. The western CONUS ridging will continue gradually shifting eastward, ahead of a progressive shortwave trough forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest. By early Saturday, the upper ridging is expected to extend across the entire High Plains and into Alberta and Saskatchewan, with the shortwave trough extending from northwest WA/southwest British Columbia through the western Great Basin. At the surface, a cold and dry airmass is expected to remain in place east of the Rockies, with associated high pressure contributing to mostly offshore low-level flow. The only exception is across the TX Coast, where some more easterly flow may exist along the northern periphery of a low over the western Gulf. Some lower 60s dewpoints may advect into south TX, but warm mid-level temperatures should still preclude deep convection and any lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern early Friday morning will likely be characterized by western CONUS ridging and central/eastern CONUS troughing. A pair of phased shortwave troughs are forecast to move through the eastern CONUS troughing and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Mid-level flow will strengthen in the wake of these waves, coincident with another shortwave trough dropping from the northern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. The western CONUS ridging will continue gradually shifting eastward, ahead of a progressive shortwave trough forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest. By early Saturday, the upper ridging is expected to extend across the entire High Plains and into Alberta and Saskatchewan, with the shortwave trough extending from northwest WA/southwest British Columbia through the western Great Basin. At the surface, a cold and dry airmass is expected to remain in place east of the Rockies, with associated high pressure contributing to mostly offshore low-level flow. The only exception is across the TX Coast, where some more easterly flow may exist along the northern periphery of a low over the western Gulf. Some lower 60s dewpoints may advect into south TX, but warm mid-level temperatures should still preclude deep convection and any lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern early Friday morning will likely be characterized by western CONUS ridging and central/eastern CONUS troughing. A pair of phased shortwave troughs are forecast to move through the eastern CONUS troughing and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Mid-level flow will strengthen in the wake of these waves, coincident with another shortwave trough dropping from the northern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. The western CONUS ridging will continue gradually shifting eastward, ahead of a progressive shortwave trough forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest. By early Saturday, the upper ridging is expected to extend across the entire High Plains and into Alberta and Saskatchewan, with the shortwave trough extending from northwest WA/southwest British Columbia through the western Great Basin. At the surface, a cold and dry airmass is expected to remain in place east of the Rockies, with associated high pressure contributing to mostly offshore low-level flow. The only exception is across the TX Coast, where some more easterly flow may exist along the northern periphery of a low over the western Gulf. Some lower 60s dewpoints may advect into south TX, but warm mid-level temperatures should still preclude deep convection and any lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern early Friday morning will likely be characterized by western CONUS ridging and central/eastern CONUS troughing. A pair of phased shortwave troughs are forecast to move through the eastern CONUS troughing and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Mid-level flow will strengthen in the wake of these waves, coincident with another shortwave trough dropping from the northern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. The western CONUS ridging will continue gradually shifting eastward, ahead of a progressive shortwave trough forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest. By early Saturday, the upper ridging is expected to extend across the entire High Plains and into Alberta and Saskatchewan, with the shortwave trough extending from northwest WA/southwest British Columbia through the western Great Basin. At the surface, a cold and dry airmass is expected to remain in place east of the Rockies, with associated high pressure contributing to mostly offshore low-level flow. The only exception is across the TX Coast, where some more easterly flow may exist along the northern periphery of a low over the western Gulf. Some lower 60s dewpoints may advect into south TX, but warm mid-level temperatures should still preclude deep convection and any lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern early Friday morning will likely be characterized by western CONUS ridging and central/eastern CONUS troughing. A pair of phased shortwave troughs are forecast to move through the eastern CONUS troughing and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Mid-level flow will strengthen in the wake of these waves, coincident with another shortwave trough dropping from the northern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. The western CONUS ridging will continue gradually shifting eastward, ahead of a progressive shortwave trough forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest. By early Saturday, the upper ridging is expected to extend across the entire High Plains and into Alberta and Saskatchewan, with the shortwave trough extending from northwest WA/southwest British Columbia through the western Great Basin. At the surface, a cold and dry airmass is expected to remain in place east of the Rockies, with associated high pressure contributing to mostly offshore low-level flow. The only exception is across the TX Coast, where some more easterly flow may exist along the northern periphery of a low over the western Gulf. Some lower 60s dewpoints may advect into south TX, but warm mid-level temperatures should still preclude deep convection and any lightning. ..Mosier.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the central/eastern CONUS upper troughing on Thursday, progressing cyclonically from the central Plains through the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast States and southern Appalachians. Another shortwave trough is expected to drop southeastward through the Upper Midwest early Friday morning. Progression of these waves will help maintain upper troughing east of the Rockies through Friday morning. Farther west, expansive upper ridging will gradually shift eastward throughout the day, ending the period extended from northern Mexico into western British Columbia. A strong shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast, but is expected to remain offshore throughout the period. The surface pattern is expected to feature ridging centered over the TN Valley, resulting in offshore flow across the majority of the CONUS. Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the Plains, helping to reinforce the cold and dry conditions already in place. Easterly/northeasterly surface winds are forecast across the Gulf of Mexico, but the development of a weak surface low just off the south TX coast should preclude any low-level moisture from advecting inland. Consequently, any thunderstorms activity should stay over the western Gulf. Dry and stable conditions will prevent thunderstorm development elsewhere. ..Mosier.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the central/eastern CONUS upper troughing on Thursday, progressing cyclonically from the central Plains through the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast States and southern Appalachians. Another shortwave trough is expected to drop southeastward through the Upper Midwest early Friday morning. Progression of these waves will help maintain upper troughing east of the Rockies through Friday morning. Farther west, expansive upper ridging will gradually shift eastward throughout the day, ending the period extended from northern Mexico into western British Columbia. A strong shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast, but is expected to remain offshore throughout the period. The surface pattern is expected to feature ridging centered over the TN Valley, resulting in offshore flow across the majority of the CONUS. Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the Plains, helping to reinforce the cold and dry conditions already in place. Easterly/northeasterly surface winds are forecast across the Gulf of Mexico, but the development of a weak surface low just off the south TX coast should preclude any low-level moisture from advecting inland. Consequently, any thunderstorms activity should stay over the western Gulf. Dry and stable conditions will prevent thunderstorm development elsewhere. ..Mosier.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the central/eastern CONUS upper troughing on Thursday, progressing cyclonically from the central Plains through the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast States and southern Appalachians. Another shortwave trough is expected to drop southeastward through the Upper Midwest early Friday morning. Progression of these waves will help maintain upper troughing east of the Rockies through Friday morning. Farther west, expansive upper ridging will gradually shift eastward throughout the day, ending the period extended from northern Mexico into western British Columbia. A strong shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast, but is expected to remain offshore throughout the period. The surface pattern is expected to feature ridging centered over the TN Valley, resulting in offshore flow across the majority of the CONUS. Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the Plains, helping to reinforce the cold and dry conditions already in place. Easterly/northeasterly surface winds are forecast across the Gulf of Mexico, but the development of a weak surface low just off the south TX coast should preclude any low-level moisture from advecting inland. Consequently, any thunderstorms activity should stay over the western Gulf. Dry and stable conditions will prevent thunderstorm development elsewhere. ..Mosier.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN DISCUSSION ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the central/eastern CONUS upper troughing on Thursday, progressing cyclonically from the central Plains through the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast States and southern Appalachians. Another shortwave trough is expected to drop southeastward through the Upper Midwest early Friday morning. Progression of these waves will help maintain upper troughing east of the Rockies through Friday morning. Farther west, expansive upper ridging will gradually shift eastward throughout the day, ending the period extended from northern Mexico into western British Columbia. A strong shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast, but is expected to remain offshore throughout the period. The surface pattern is expected to feature ridging centered over the TN Valley, resulting in offshore flow across the majority of the CONUS. Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the Plains, helping to reinforce the cold and dry conditions already in place. Easterly/northeasterly surface winds are forecast across the Gulf of Mexico, but the development of a weak surface low just off the south TX coast should preclude any low-level moisture from advecting inland. Consequently, any thunderstorms activity should stay over the western Gulf. Dry and stable conditions will prevent thunderstorm development elsewhere. ..Mosier.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the central/eastern CONUS upper troughing on Thursday, progressing cyclonically from the central Plains through the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast States and southern Appalachians. Another shortwave trough is expected to drop southeastward through the Upper Midwest early Friday morning. Progression of these waves will help maintain upper troughing east of the Rockies through Friday morning. Farther west, expansive upper ridging will gradually shift eastward throughout the day, ending the period extended from northern Mexico into western British Columbia. A strong shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast, but is expected to remain offshore throughout the period. The surface pattern is expected to feature ridging centered over the TN Valley, resulting in offshore flow across the majority of the CONUS. Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the Plains, helping to reinforce the cold and dry conditions already in place. Westerly surface winds are forecast across the Gulf of Mexico, but the development of a weak surface low just off the south TX coast should preclude any low-level moisture from advecting inland. Consequently, any thunderstorms activity should stay over the western Gulf. Dry and stable conditions will prevent thunderstorm development elsewhere. ..Mosier.. 01/01/2025 Read more