Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will persist through Thursday, with an upper ridge along the West Coast and a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft to the east. That ridge will push eastward across the Great Basin through Friday morning, as a shortwave trough approaches the coastal Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, an embedded wave is forecast to amplify toward the lower MS Valley/Southeast, with developing precipitation from LA into southern MS and AL. At the surface, high pressure will be in place over the Southeast, with east to northeast winds across the Gulf of Mexico. A secondary surge of polar air will spread south across the MO/MS Valleys late, pushing the moist air mass just off the TX Coast even farther south. While a few thunderstorms may occur over the western Gulf waters, activity over land is unlikely. Minimal elevated instability may develop into the lower Sabine Valley and into southern LA, but the overall probability of rogue flashes appears to be less than 10% within the larger-scale precipitation shield atop the surface stable layer. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will persist through Thursday, with an upper ridge along the West Coast and a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft to the east. That ridge will push eastward across the Great Basin through Friday morning, as a shortwave trough approaches the coastal Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, an embedded wave is forecast to amplify toward the lower MS Valley/Southeast, with developing precipitation from LA into southern MS and AL. At the surface, high pressure will be in place over the Southeast, with east to northeast winds across the Gulf of Mexico. A secondary surge of polar air will spread south across the MO/MS Valleys late, pushing the moist air mass just off the TX Coast even farther south. While a few thunderstorms may occur over the western Gulf waters, activity over land is unlikely. Minimal elevated instability may develop into the lower Sabine Valley and into southern LA, but the overall probability of rogue flashes appears to be less than 10% within the larger-scale precipitation shield atop the surface stable layer. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will persist through Thursday, with an upper ridge along the West Coast and a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft to the east. That ridge will push eastward across the Great Basin through Friday morning, as a shortwave trough approaches the coastal Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, an embedded wave is forecast to amplify toward the lower MS Valley/Southeast, with developing precipitation from LA into southern MS and AL. At the surface, high pressure will be in place over the Southeast, with east to northeast winds across the Gulf of Mexico. A secondary surge of polar air will spread south across the MO/MS Valleys late, pushing the moist air mass just off the TX Coast even farther south. While a few thunderstorms may occur over the western Gulf waters, activity over land is unlikely. Minimal elevated instability may develop into the lower Sabine Valley and into southern LA, but the overall probability of rogue flashes appears to be less than 10% within the larger-scale precipitation shield atop the surface stable layer. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will persist through Thursday, with an upper ridge along the West Coast and a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft to the east. That ridge will push eastward across the Great Basin through Friday morning, as a shortwave trough approaches the coastal Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, an embedded wave is forecast to amplify toward the lower MS Valley/Southeast, with developing precipitation from LA into southern MS and AL. At the surface, high pressure will be in place over the Southeast, with east to northeast winds across the Gulf of Mexico. A secondary surge of polar air will spread south across the MO/MS Valleys late, pushing the moist air mass just off the TX Coast even farther south. While a few thunderstorms may occur over the western Gulf waters, activity over land is unlikely. Minimal elevated instability may develop into the lower Sabine Valley and into southern LA, but the overall probability of rogue flashes appears to be less than 10% within the larger-scale precipitation shield atop the surface stable layer. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern will persist through Thursday, with an upper ridge along the West Coast and a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft to the east. That ridge will push eastward across the Great Basin through Friday morning, as a shortwave trough approaches the coastal Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, an embedded wave is forecast to amplify toward the lower MS Valley/Southeast, with developing precipitation from LA into southern MS and AL. At the surface, high pressure will be in place over the Southeast, with east to northeast winds across the Gulf of Mexico. A secondary surge of polar air will spread south across the MO/MS Valleys late, pushing the moist air mass just off the TX Coast even farther south. While a few thunderstorms may occur over the western Gulf waters, activity over land is unlikely. Minimal elevated instability may develop into the lower Sabine Valley and into southern LA, but the overall probability of rogue flashes appears to be less than 10% within the larger-scale precipitation shield atop the surface stable layer. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Update... No changes are required for Wednesday's forecast. In addition to the small Elevated area within southern CA, localized wind speeds around 15 to briefly 20 mph, and RH in the teens, may develop across a small portion of the Colorado Plateau of NM Wednesday afternoon. Both the short duration and small area of these conditions, however, precludes the need for an Elevated area. Please see the previous discussion below for details regarding the forecast within southern CA. ..Barnes.. 12/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the Transverse Ranges in southern California through Wednesday morning before gradients decrease during the day. Relative humidity will drop as low as 5-10 percent. Gradients will increase again late Wednesday into Thursday, with a return to gusty conditions overnight. Poor recovery is expected overnight into Thursday morning. Overall, Critical conditions look to be mainly in the highest mountains and immediate foothills, limiting the need to include a Critical region at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Update... No changes are required for Wednesday's forecast. In addition to the small Elevated area within southern CA, localized wind speeds around 15 to briefly 20 mph, and RH in the teens, may develop across a small portion of the Colorado Plateau of NM Wednesday afternoon. Both the short duration and small area of these conditions, however, precludes the need for an Elevated area. Please see the previous discussion below for details regarding the forecast within southern CA. ..Barnes.. 12/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the Transverse Ranges in southern California through Wednesday morning before gradients decrease during the day. Relative humidity will drop as low as 5-10 percent. Gradients will increase again late Wednesday into Thursday, with a return to gusty conditions overnight. Poor recovery is expected overnight into Thursday morning. Overall, Critical conditions look to be mainly in the highest mountains and immediate foothills, limiting the need to include a Critical region at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Update... No changes are required for Wednesday's forecast. In addition to the small Elevated area within southern CA, localized wind speeds around 15 to briefly 20 mph, and RH in the teens, may develop across a small portion of the Colorado Plateau of NM Wednesday afternoon. Both the short duration and small area of these conditions, however, precludes the need for an Elevated area. Please see the previous discussion below for details regarding the forecast within southern CA. ..Barnes.. 12/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the Transverse Ranges in southern California through Wednesday morning before gradients decrease during the day. Relative humidity will drop as low as 5-10 percent. Gradients will increase again late Wednesday into Thursday, with a return to gusty conditions overnight. Poor recovery is expected overnight into Thursday morning. Overall, Critical conditions look to be mainly in the highest mountains and immediate foothills, limiting the need to include a Critical region at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Update... No changes are required for Wednesday's forecast. In addition to the small Elevated area within southern CA, localized wind speeds around 15 to briefly 20 mph, and RH in the teens, may develop across a small portion of the Colorado Plateau of NM Wednesday afternoon. Both the short duration and small area of these conditions, however, precludes the need for an Elevated area. Please see the previous discussion below for details regarding the forecast within southern CA. ..Barnes.. 12/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the Transverse Ranges in southern California through Wednesday morning before gradients decrease during the day. Relative humidity will drop as low as 5-10 percent. Gradients will increase again late Wednesday into Thursday, with a return to gusty conditions overnight. Poor recovery is expected overnight into Thursday morning. Overall, Critical conditions look to be mainly in the highest mountains and immediate foothills, limiting the need to include a Critical region at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Update... No changes are required for Wednesday's forecast. In addition to the small Elevated area within southern CA, localized wind speeds around 15 to briefly 20 mph, and RH in the teens, may develop across a small portion of the Colorado Plateau of NM Wednesday afternoon. Both the short duration and small area of these conditions, however, precludes the need for an Elevated area. Please see the previous discussion below for details regarding the forecast within southern CA. ..Barnes.. 12/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the Transverse Ranges in southern California through Wednesday morning before gradients decrease during the day. Relative humidity will drop as low as 5-10 percent. Gradients will increase again late Wednesday into Thursday, with a return to gusty conditions overnight. Poor recovery is expected overnight into Thursday morning. Overall, Critical conditions look to be mainly in the highest mountains and immediate foothills, limiting the need to include a Critical region at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Update... No changes are required for Wednesday's forecast. In addition to the small Elevated area within southern CA, localized wind speeds around 15 to briefly 20 mph, and RH in the teens, may develop across a small portion of the Colorado Plateau of NM Wednesday afternoon. Both the short duration and small area of these conditions, however, precludes the need for an Elevated area. Please see the previous discussion below for details regarding the forecast within southern CA. ..Barnes.. 12/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the Transverse Ranges in southern California through Wednesday morning before gradients decrease during the day. Relative humidity will drop as low as 5-10 percent. Gradients will increase again late Wednesday into Thursday, with a return to gusty conditions overnight. Poor recovery is expected overnight into Thursday morning. Overall, Critical conditions look to be mainly in the highest mountains and immediate foothills, limiting the need to include a Critical region at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be situated over northern Ontario with a broad area of lower heights across the Canadian Prairies. South of this low, a broad fetch of moderate to strong high-level flow will extend from the western US into the Southeast, with a leading wave ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Northeast. With time, upper ridging will occur along the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the central to southern Plains, with a deepening low over Maine, in association with the upper wave. As a result, northerly winds will exist along the Gulf Coast, with offshore flow along the East Coast as well. The end result will be stable conditions across the bulk of the CONUS, with little if any thunderstorm or lightning potential. While a flash or two cannot be ruled out ahead of the New England surface low, any weak elevated instability should remain largely offshore. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be situated over northern Ontario with a broad area of lower heights across the Canadian Prairies. South of this low, a broad fetch of moderate to strong high-level flow will extend from the western US into the Southeast, with a leading wave ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Northeast. With time, upper ridging will occur along the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the central to southern Plains, with a deepening low over Maine, in association with the upper wave. As a result, northerly winds will exist along the Gulf Coast, with offshore flow along the East Coast as well. The end result will be stable conditions across the bulk of the CONUS, with little if any thunderstorm or lightning potential. While a flash or two cannot be ruled out ahead of the New England surface low, any weak elevated instability should remain largely offshore. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be situated over northern Ontario with a broad area of lower heights across the Canadian Prairies. South of this low, a broad fetch of moderate to strong high-level flow will extend from the western US into the Southeast, with a leading wave ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Northeast. With time, upper ridging will occur along the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the central to southern Plains, with a deepening low over Maine, in association with the upper wave. As a result, northerly winds will exist along the Gulf Coast, with offshore flow along the East Coast as well. The end result will be stable conditions across the bulk of the CONUS, with little if any thunderstorm or lightning potential. While a flash or two cannot be ruled out ahead of the New England surface low, any weak elevated instability should remain largely offshore. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be situated over northern Ontario with a broad area of lower heights across the Canadian Prairies. South of this low, a broad fetch of moderate to strong high-level flow will extend from the western US into the Southeast, with a leading wave ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Northeast. With time, upper ridging will occur along the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the central to southern Plains, with a deepening low over Maine, in association with the upper wave. As a result, northerly winds will exist along the Gulf Coast, with offshore flow along the East Coast as well. The end result will be stable conditions across the bulk of the CONUS, with little if any thunderstorm or lightning potential. While a flash or two cannot be ruled out ahead of the New England surface low, any weak elevated instability should remain largely offshore. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be situated over northern Ontario with a broad area of lower heights across the Canadian Prairies. South of this low, a broad fetch of moderate to strong high-level flow will extend from the western US into the Southeast, with a leading wave ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Northeast. With time, upper ridging will occur along the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the central to southern Plains, with a deepening low over Maine, in association with the upper wave. As a result, northerly winds will exist along the Gulf Coast, with offshore flow along the East Coast as well. The end result will be stable conditions across the bulk of the CONUS, with little if any thunderstorm or lightning potential. While a flash or two cannot be ruled out ahead of the New England surface low, any weak elevated instability should remain largely offshore. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An upper low will be situated over northern Ontario with a broad area of lower heights across the Canadian Prairies. South of this low, a broad fetch of moderate to strong high-level flow will extend from the western US into the Southeast, with a leading wave ejecting in negative-tilt fashion across the Northeast. With time, upper ridging will occur along the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the central to southern Plains, with a deepening low over Maine, in association with the upper wave. As a result, northerly winds will exist along the Gulf Coast, with offshore flow along the East Coast as well. The end result will be stable conditions across the bulk of the CONUS, with little if any thunderstorm or lightning potential. While a flash or two cannot be ruled out ahead of the New England surface low, any weak elevated instability should remain largely offshore. ..Jewell.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...Update... Changes have been made to today's forecast. In particular, an additional Elevated area has been included across portions of western and southwestern NM in and around the southern Colorado Plateau. Westerly downslope winds will peak to around 15-20 mph sustained later this afternoon (with locally higher sustained winds of 20-25 mph) as stronger mid-level flow translates to the surface and the pressure gradient tightens near a surface low. Relatively warm temperatures and a dry air mass across this region will also result in minimum RH falling into the teens for a couple of hours. Further southeast across the Texas Hill Country, brief Elevated conditions due mostly to breezy north winds behind a cold front will be possible late this morning through early this afternoon. However, wind speeds should decrease fairly quickly and the lowest RH (this afternoon) will not coincide with the higher wind speeds. Therefore, the Elevated area was reduced to account for more localized conditions. No changes were made to the small Elevated area across southern California. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details pertaining to that area. ..Barnes.. 12/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Offshore gradients are expected to bring gusty/dry conditions across southern California today. Gradients will peak around 5-7 mb tonight night into Wednesday morning. Sustained north to northeasterly winds 15-30 mph (gusting 30-45 mph, locally up to 55 mph) will overlap minimum humidity around 10-20 percent. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is likely across portions of the Transverse Ranges. HREF guidance indicates Critical conditions will be mainly confined to the immediate slopes/foothills, which will preclude the need for inclusion of a Critical area at this time. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Texas Hill Country into south Texas due to dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. North-northeast sustained winds of 12-20 mph will overlap minimum relative humidity of 15-25%. Fuels are dry with some of the outlook area also having above normal fuel loading. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico as gusty westerly winds of 15-20 mph mix to the surface amid a dry air mass. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...Update... Changes have been made to today's forecast. In particular, an additional Elevated area has been included across portions of western and southwestern NM in and around the southern Colorado Plateau. Westerly downslope winds will peak to around 15-20 mph sustained later this afternoon (with locally higher sustained winds of 20-25 mph) as stronger mid-level flow translates to the surface and the pressure gradient tightens near a surface low. Relatively warm temperatures and a dry air mass across this region will also result in minimum RH falling into the teens for a couple of hours. Further southeast across the Texas Hill Country, brief Elevated conditions due mostly to breezy north winds behind a cold front will be possible late this morning through early this afternoon. However, wind speeds should decrease fairly quickly and the lowest RH (this afternoon) will not coincide with the higher wind speeds. Therefore, the Elevated area was reduced to account for more localized conditions. No changes were made to the small Elevated area across southern California. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details pertaining to that area. ..Barnes.. 12/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Offshore gradients are expected to bring gusty/dry conditions across southern California today. Gradients will peak around 5-7 mb tonight night into Wednesday morning. Sustained north to northeasterly winds 15-30 mph (gusting 30-45 mph, locally up to 55 mph) will overlap minimum humidity around 10-20 percent. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is likely across portions of the Transverse Ranges. HREF guidance indicates Critical conditions will be mainly confined to the immediate slopes/foothills, which will preclude the need for inclusion of a Critical area at this time. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Texas Hill Country into south Texas due to dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. North-northeast sustained winds of 12-20 mph will overlap minimum relative humidity of 15-25%. Fuels are dry with some of the outlook area also having above normal fuel loading. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico as gusty westerly winds of 15-20 mph mix to the surface amid a dry air mass. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...Update... Changes have been made to today's forecast. In particular, an additional Elevated area has been included across portions of western and southwestern NM in and around the southern Colorado Plateau. Westerly downslope winds will peak to around 15-20 mph sustained later this afternoon (with locally higher sustained winds of 20-25 mph) as stronger mid-level flow translates to the surface and the pressure gradient tightens near a surface low. Relatively warm temperatures and a dry air mass across this region will also result in minimum RH falling into the teens for a couple of hours. Further southeast across the Texas Hill Country, brief Elevated conditions due mostly to breezy north winds behind a cold front will be possible late this morning through early this afternoon. However, wind speeds should decrease fairly quickly and the lowest RH (this afternoon) will not coincide with the higher wind speeds. Therefore, the Elevated area was reduced to account for more localized conditions. No changes were made to the small Elevated area across southern California. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details pertaining to that area. ..Barnes.. 12/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Offshore gradients are expected to bring gusty/dry conditions across southern California today. Gradients will peak around 5-7 mb tonight night into Wednesday morning. Sustained north to northeasterly winds 15-30 mph (gusting 30-45 mph, locally up to 55 mph) will overlap minimum humidity around 10-20 percent. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is likely across portions of the Transverse Ranges. HREF guidance indicates Critical conditions will be mainly confined to the immediate slopes/foothills, which will preclude the need for inclusion of a Critical area at this time. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Texas Hill Country into south Texas due to dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. North-northeast sustained winds of 12-20 mph will overlap minimum relative humidity of 15-25%. Fuels are dry with some of the outlook area also having above normal fuel loading. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico as gusty westerly winds of 15-20 mph mix to the surface amid a dry air mass. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more