Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the central/eastern CONUS upper troughing on Thursday, progressing cyclonically from the central Plains through the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast States and southern Appalachians. Another, more northerly shortwave trough is expected to move across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Progression of these waves will help maintain upper troughing across the eastern CONUS into early Friday. Farther west, upper ridging will gradually shift across the western CONUS, ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast early Friday morning. At the surface, ridging associated with a dry continental airmass is expected to gradually shift eastward from the TN Valley/Southeast towards the Mid-Atlantic. Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the Plains, helping to reinforce the dry conditions from a preceding cold front. A weak low may develop along the TX coast, along a weak inverted trough, helping to preclude any inland moisture return. Dry and stable conditions across the CONUS will prevent thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the central/eastern CONUS upper troughing on Thursday, progressing cyclonically from the central Plains through the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast States and southern Appalachians. Another, more northerly shortwave trough is expected to move across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Progression of these waves will help maintain upper troughing across the eastern CONUS into early Friday. Farther west, upper ridging will gradually shift across the western CONUS, ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast early Friday morning. At the surface, ridging associated with a dry continental airmass is expected to gradually shift eastward from the TN Valley/Southeast towards the Mid-Atlantic. Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the Plains, helping to reinforce the dry conditions from a preceding cold front. A weak low may develop along the TX coast, along a weak inverted trough, helping to preclude any inland moisture return. Dry and stable conditions across the CONUS will prevent thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the central/eastern CONUS upper troughing on Thursday, progressing cyclonically from the central Plains through the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast States and southern Appalachians. Another, more northerly shortwave trough is expected to move across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Progression of these waves will help maintain upper troughing across the eastern CONUS into early Friday. Farther west, upper ridging will gradually shift across the western CONUS, ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast early Friday morning. At the surface, ridging associated with a dry continental airmass is expected to gradually shift eastward from the TN Valley/Southeast towards the Mid-Atlantic. Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the Plains, helping to reinforce the dry conditions from a preceding cold front. A weak low may develop along the TX coast, along a weak inverted trough, helping to preclude any inland moisture return. Dry and stable conditions across the CONUS will prevent thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Thursday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to rotate through the central/eastern CONUS upper troughing on Thursday, progressing cyclonically from the central Plains through the Mid MS Valley into the Southeast States and southern Appalachians. Another, more northerly shortwave trough is expected to move across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Progression of these waves will help maintain upper troughing across the eastern CONUS into early Friday. Farther west, upper ridging will gradually shift across the western CONUS, ahead of a strong shortwave trough expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast early Friday morning. At the surface, ridging associated with a dry continental airmass is expected to gradually shift eastward from the TN Valley/Southeast towards the Mid-Atlantic. Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the Plains, helping to reinforce the dry conditions from a preceding cold front. A weak low may develop along the TX coast, along a weak inverted trough, helping to preclude any inland moisture return. Dry and stable conditions across the CONUS will prevent thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the Transverse Ranges in southern California through Wednesday morning before gradients decrease during the day. Relative humidity will drop as low as 5-10 percent. Gradients will increase again late Wednesday into Thursday, with a return to gusty conditions overnight. Poor recovery is expected overnight into Thursday morning. Overall, Critical conditions look to be mainly in the highest mountains and immediate foothills, limiting the need to include a Critical region at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the Transverse Ranges in southern California through Wednesday morning before gradients decrease during the day. Relative humidity will drop as low as 5-10 percent. Gradients will increase again late Wednesday into Thursday, with a return to gusty conditions overnight. Poor recovery is expected overnight into Thursday morning. Overall, Critical conditions look to be mainly in the highest mountains and immediate foothills, limiting the need to include a Critical region at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the Transverse Ranges in southern California through Wednesday morning before gradients decrease during the day. Relative humidity will drop as low as 5-10 percent. Gradients will increase again late Wednesday into Thursday, with a return to gusty conditions overnight. Poor recovery is expected overnight into Thursday morning. Overall, Critical conditions look to be mainly in the highest mountains and immediate foothills, limiting the need to include a Critical region at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the Transverse Ranges in southern California through Wednesday morning before gradients decrease during the day. Relative humidity will drop as low as 5-10 percent. Gradients will increase again late Wednesday into Thursday, with a return to gusty conditions overnight. Poor recovery is expected overnight into Thursday morning. Overall, Critical conditions look to be mainly in the highest mountains and immediate foothills, limiting the need to include a Critical region at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the Transverse Ranges in southern California through Wednesday morning before gradients decrease during the day. Relative humidity will drop as low as 5-10 percent. Gradients will increase again late Wednesday into Thursday, with a return to gusty conditions overnight. Poor recovery is expected overnight into Thursday morning. Overall, Critical conditions look to be mainly in the highest mountains and immediate foothills, limiting the need to include a Critical region at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Offshore gradients are expected to bring gusty/dry conditions across southern California today. Gradients will peak around 5-7 mb tonight night into Wednesday morning. Sustained north to northeasterly winds 15-30 mph (gusting 30-45 mph, locally up to 55 mph) will overlap minimum humidity around 10-20 percent. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is likely across portions of the Transverse Ranges. HREF guidance indicates Critical conditions will be mainly confined to the immediate slopes/foothills, which will preclude the need for inclusion of a Critical area at this time. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Texas Hill Country into south Texas due to dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. North-northeast sustained winds of 12-20 mph will overlap minimum relative humidity of 15-25%. Fuels are dry with some of the outlook area also having above normal fuel loading. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico as gusty westerly winds of 15-20 mph mix to the surface amid a dry air mass. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Offshore gradients are expected to bring gusty/dry conditions across southern California today. Gradients will peak around 5-7 mb tonight night into Wednesday morning. Sustained north to northeasterly winds 15-30 mph (gusting 30-45 mph, locally up to 55 mph) will overlap minimum humidity around 10-20 percent. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is likely across portions of the Transverse Ranges. HREF guidance indicates Critical conditions will be mainly confined to the immediate slopes/foothills, which will preclude the need for inclusion of a Critical area at this time. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Texas Hill Country into south Texas due to dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. North-northeast sustained winds of 12-20 mph will overlap minimum relative humidity of 15-25%. Fuels are dry with some of the outlook area also having above normal fuel loading. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico as gusty westerly winds of 15-20 mph mix to the surface amid a dry air mass. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Offshore gradients are expected to bring gusty/dry conditions across southern California today. Gradients will peak around 5-7 mb tonight night into Wednesday morning. Sustained north to northeasterly winds 15-30 mph (gusting 30-45 mph, locally up to 55 mph) will overlap minimum humidity around 10-20 percent. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is likely across portions of the Transverse Ranges. HREF guidance indicates Critical conditions will be mainly confined to the immediate slopes/foothills, which will preclude the need for inclusion of a Critical area at this time. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Texas Hill Country into south Texas due to dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. North-northeast sustained winds of 12-20 mph will overlap minimum relative humidity of 15-25%. Fuels are dry with some of the outlook area also having above normal fuel loading. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico as gusty westerly winds of 15-20 mph mix to the surface amid a dry air mass. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Offshore gradients are expected to bring gusty/dry conditions across southern California today. Gradients will peak around 5-7 mb tonight night into Wednesday morning. Sustained north to northeasterly winds 15-30 mph (gusting 30-45 mph, locally up to 55 mph) will overlap minimum humidity around 10-20 percent. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is likely across portions of the Transverse Ranges. HREF guidance indicates Critical conditions will be mainly confined to the immediate slopes/foothills, which will preclude the need for inclusion of a Critical area at this time. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Texas Hill Country into south Texas due to dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. North-northeast sustained winds of 12-20 mph will overlap minimum relative humidity of 15-25%. Fuels are dry with some of the outlook area also having above normal fuel loading. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico as gusty westerly winds of 15-20 mph mix to the surface amid a dry air mass. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Offshore gradients are expected to bring gusty/dry conditions across southern California today. Gradients will peak around 5-7 mb tonight night into Wednesday morning. Sustained north to northeasterly winds 15-30 mph (gusting 30-45 mph, locally up to 55 mph) will overlap minimum humidity around 10-20 percent. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is likely across portions of the Transverse Ranges. HREF guidance indicates Critical conditions will be mainly confined to the immediate slopes/foothills, which will preclude the need for inclusion of a Critical area at this time. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Texas Hill Country into south Texas due to dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. North-northeast sustained winds of 12-20 mph will overlap minimum relative humidity of 15-25%. Fuels are dry with some of the outlook area also having above normal fuel loading. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico as gusty westerly winds of 15-20 mph mix to the surface amid a dry air mass. ..Thornton.. 12/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow is expected to persist across the CONUS on Wednesday as one shortwave trough exits the Northeast and a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs follow in its wake across the Plains. The strongest of these latter shortwaves is expected to move southeastward from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to begin the period over southern New England before then quickly moving northeastward. Surface ridging associated with a dry continental airmass will settle in across the central and eastern CONUS, precluding any thunderstorm potential. Dry and stable conditions are anticipated across the western CONUS as well. ..Mosier.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow is expected to persist across the CONUS on Wednesday as one shortwave trough exits the Northeast and a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs follow in its wake across the Plains. The strongest of these latter shortwaves is expected to move southeastward from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to begin the period over southern New England before then quickly moving northeastward. Surface ridging associated with a dry continental airmass will settle in across the central and eastern CONUS, precluding any thunderstorm potential. Dry and stable conditions are anticipated across the western CONUS as well. ..Mosier.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow is expected to persist across the CONUS on Wednesday as one shortwave trough exits the Northeast and a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs follow in its wake across the Plains. The strongest of these latter shortwaves is expected to move southeastward from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to begin the period over southern New England before then quickly moving northeastward. Surface ridging associated with a dry continental airmass will settle in across the central and eastern CONUS, precluding any thunderstorm potential. Dry and stable conditions are anticipated across the western CONUS as well. ..Mosier.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow is expected to persist across the CONUS on Wednesday as one shortwave trough exits the Northeast and a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs follow in its wake across the Plains. The strongest of these latter shortwaves is expected to move southeastward from the northern Rockies into the central Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to begin the period over southern New England before then quickly moving northeastward. Surface ridging associated with a dry continental airmass will settle in across the central and eastern CONUS, precluding any thunderstorm potential. Dry and stable conditions are anticipated across the western CONUS as well. ..Mosier.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe gusts, hail and possibly a brief tornado, are expected to develop today from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A negative-tilted mid-level trough will move eastward into the central Appalachian Mountains today, as a 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves through the northern Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a low will move through the Ohio Valley, as a warm front advances northward into the Mid-Atlantic. This afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near a cold pocket aloft associated with the mid-level low. In addition, a line of thunderstorms is forecast to develop in the central Appalachians, where lift will be enhanced by the left exit region of the mid-level jet. RAP forecast soundings across the central Appalachians by early afternoon have MUCAPE in the 300 to 500 J/kg range, and steepen low-level lapse rates to around 7 C/km. This should be enough for isolated severe gusts along the leading edge of the strongly-forced the line. In addition, afternoon forecast soundings in the Mid-Atlantic have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range suggesting that a marginal tornado threat will also be possible. Hail could also occur with cells embedded in the more organized parts of the line. The severe threat is expected to continue into the late afternoon, as the line of storms moves through the Mid-Atlantic region. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe gusts, hail and possibly a brief tornado, are expected to develop today from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A negative-tilted mid-level trough will move eastward into the central Appalachian Mountains today, as a 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves through the northern Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a low will move through the Ohio Valley, as a warm front advances northward into the Mid-Atlantic. This afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near a cold pocket aloft associated with the mid-level low. In addition, a line of thunderstorms is forecast to develop in the central Appalachians, where lift will be enhanced by the left exit region of the mid-level jet. RAP forecast soundings across the central Appalachians by early afternoon have MUCAPE in the 300 to 500 J/kg range, and steepen low-level lapse rates to around 7 C/km. This should be enough for isolated severe gusts along the leading edge of the strongly-forced the line. In addition, afternoon forecast soundings in the Mid-Atlantic have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range suggesting that a marginal tornado threat will also be possible. Hail could also occur with cells embedded in the more organized parts of the line. The severe threat is expected to continue into the late afternoon, as the line of storms moves through the Mid-Atlantic region. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/31/2024 Read more