Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2302 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2302 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas into Louisiana...western Mississippi...and extreme southeastern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 281934Z - 282100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The anticipated primary round of severe storms is expected to take shape soon. A QLCS, likely preceded by supercells, with all severe hazards expected. Several EF0-EF2 tornadoes are anticipated, and a few intense (EF3+) tornadoes are likely. A particularly dangerous situation tornado watch will be issued within the next hour or so to address the increasing severe threat. DISCUSSION...A QLCS is gradually organizing across eastern TX, preceded by multiple supercells developing within confluence bands. So far, tornadoes have been the predominant observed severe hazard, with preliminary local storm reports suggesting that some of these tornadoes may have been strong. Mesoanalysis trends have shown a 70 kt mid-level jet streak pivoting the trough and approaching the open warm sector, characterized by 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE (given 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop 70F surface dewpoints). As such, the 850 mb low-level jet has already increased to 40 kts, with regional VADs beginning to show the first signs of low-level hodograph enlargement. Trends of increasing low-level shear across the warm sector should continue into the evening hours ahead of the approaching QLCS and supercells. Damaging tornado potential should not only persist, but likely increase into the evening hours, both with the QLCS and preceding supercells. The most discrete, dominant warm-sector supercells will have the best potential to produce intense, potentially long-lived/long-tracked tornadoes. In consideration of the aforementioned significant tornado potential, a particularly dangerous situation tornado watch is likely within the next hour. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 30269465 31879331 33439123 33149048 32509034 31889034 31149082 30479132 30169235 30069395 30269465 Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0720 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more