Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of tornadoes and severe wind gusts will continue this evening into tonight from the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Long-track tornadoes of greater than EF2 intensity will be likely in some areas. Wind gusts greater than 70 mph will also be possible. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over northeast Texas, with an associated trough in east Texas. Ahead of the trough, a 65 to 80 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Texas and central Louisiana. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Mississippi southwestward into south-central Louisiana, along which a severe linear MCS is ongoing. The MCS is near an axis of moderate instability, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F. Along and near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE ranging from 1000 J/kg in west-central Mississippi to around 3000 J/kg along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Near the axis of instability, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed ahead of the linear MCS. Isolated supercells are ongoing near the axis of this low-level jet in south-central Mississippi. RAP forecast soundings early this evening at Jackson, Mississippi have impressive wind profiles, with 0-6 km shear of 50 to 55 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. The shear environment will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Long-track tornadoes of EF3+ in intensity will be possible this evening with supercells that remain discrete out ahead of the linear MCS. Strong tornadoes will also be possible with embedded supercells within the line. The linear MCS, accompanied by severe wind gusts and tornadoes, will continue to move quickly eastward across Mississippi this evening. By late evening, the line is expected to be located from far western Alabama into southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. The potential for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will likely continue along the more intense parts of the line through much of the night. By daybreak, the line should be located from western Georgia southward into the Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of tornadoes and severe wind gusts will continue this evening into tonight from the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Long-track tornadoes of greater than EF2 intensity will be likely in some areas. Wind gusts greater than 70 mph will also be possible. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over northeast Texas, with an associated trough in east Texas. Ahead of the trough, a 65 to 80 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Texas and central Louisiana. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Mississippi southwestward into south-central Louisiana, along which a severe linear MCS is ongoing. The MCS is near an axis of moderate instability, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F. Along and near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE ranging from 1000 J/kg in west-central Mississippi to around 3000 J/kg along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Near the axis of instability, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed ahead of the linear MCS. Isolated supercells are ongoing near the axis of this low-level jet in south-central Mississippi. RAP forecast soundings early this evening at Jackson, Mississippi have impressive wind profiles, with 0-6 km shear of 50 to 55 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. The shear environment will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Long-track tornadoes of EF3+ in intensity will be possible this evening with supercells that remain discrete out ahead of the linear MCS. Strong tornadoes will also be possible with embedded supercells within the line. The linear MCS, accompanied by severe wind gusts and tornadoes, will continue to move quickly eastward across Mississippi this evening. By late evening, the line is expected to be located from far western Alabama into southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. The potential for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will likely continue along the more intense parts of the line through much of the night. By daybreak, the line should be located from western Georgia southward into the Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of tornadoes and severe wind gusts will continue this evening into tonight from the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Long-track tornadoes of greater than EF2 intensity will be likely in some areas. Wind gusts greater than 70 mph will also be possible. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over northeast Texas, with an associated trough in east Texas. Ahead of the trough, a 65 to 80 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Texas and central Louisiana. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Mississippi southwestward into south-central Louisiana, along which a severe linear MCS is ongoing. The MCS is near an axis of moderate instability, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F. Along and near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE ranging from 1000 J/kg in west-central Mississippi to around 3000 J/kg along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Near the axis of instability, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed ahead of the linear MCS. Isolated supercells are ongoing near the axis of this low-level jet in south-central Mississippi. RAP forecast soundings early this evening at Jackson, Mississippi have impressive wind profiles, with 0-6 km shear of 50 to 55 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. The shear environment will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Long-track tornadoes of EF3+ in intensity will be possible this evening with supercells that remain discrete out ahead of the linear MCS. Strong tornadoes will also be possible with embedded supercells within the line. The linear MCS, accompanied by severe wind gusts and tornadoes, will continue to move quickly eastward across Mississippi this evening. By late evening, the line is expected to be located from far western Alabama into southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. The potential for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will likely continue along the more intense parts of the line through much of the night. By daybreak, the line should be located from western Georgia southward into the Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of tornadoes and severe wind gusts will continue this evening into tonight from the lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. Long-track tornadoes of greater than EF2 intensity will be likely in some areas. Wind gusts greater than 70 mph will also be possible. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over northeast Texas, with an associated trough in east Texas. Ahead of the trough, a 65 to 80 knot mid-level jet is moving through southeast Texas and central Louisiana. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Mississippi southwestward into south-central Louisiana, along which a severe linear MCS is ongoing. The MCS is near an axis of moderate instability, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F. Along and near the moist axis, the RAP has MLCAPE ranging from 1000 J/kg in west-central Mississippi to around 3000 J/kg along the Louisiana Gulf Coast. Near the axis of instability, a 40 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed ahead of the linear MCS. Isolated supercells are ongoing near the axis of this low-level jet in south-central Mississippi. RAP forecast soundings early this evening at Jackson, Mississippi have impressive wind profiles, with 0-6 km shear of 50 to 55 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. The shear environment will be favorable for tornadic supercells. Long-track tornadoes of EF3+ in intensity will be possible this evening with supercells that remain discrete out ahead of the linear MCS. Strong tornadoes will also be possible with embedded supercells within the line. The linear MCS, accompanied by severe wind gusts and tornadoes, will continue to move quickly eastward across Mississippi this evening. By late evening, the line is expected to be located from far western Alabama into southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. The potential for tornadoes and severe wind gusts will likely continue along the more intense parts of the line through much of the night. By daybreak, the line should be located from western Georgia southward into the Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ..Broyles.. 12/29/2024 Read more

MD 2306 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 720... FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 2306 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0600 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...southern Louisiana and far southern Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 720... Valid 290000Z - 290100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for tornadoes and wind to continue across southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms with embedded supercells structures continues across portions of southern Louisiana into Mississippi as of 00z. The environment across this region remains highly favorable, with MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg amid surface dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. Forcing for ascent has begun to gradually shift northward but strongly sheared profiles remain favorable for supercell maintenance. VAD profiles from HDC (Hammond, LA) show favorable curvature in the bottom 0-3 km, with 0-500m SRH around 300 m2/s2. This in combination with favorable thermodynamics will continue to support a risk for tornadoes, some of which may be strong. Potential for damaging winds will also remain likely with more linear storm modes. Local extension of WW720 has occurred across southeastern LA into southern MS to cover this threat. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29869314 30279264 30629219 30849184 31019133 31019046 31028996 30988938 30878872 30718850 30498850 30298855 29948873 29648904 29348968 29329038 29439150 29619255 29869314 Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW LCH TO 40 NNW LFT TO 10 SE HEZ TO 60 NE HEZ TO 20 NE GLH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2307 ..THORNTON..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-005-023-033-037-045-047-055-063-077-091-097-099-101-105- 113-117-121-125-290140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ASCENSION CAMERON EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY TANGIPAHOA VERMILION WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-007-015-019-029-031-037-043-049-051-053-063-065-077-079- 083-085-089-091-097-113-121-123-127-129-147-155-157-163- 290140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE ATTALA CARROLL Read more

WW 0721 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0721 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 28 23:40:15 UTC 2024.

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE HOU TO 30 SSE POE TO 20 E ESF TO 10 E GLH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2306 ..THORNTON..12/28/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-005-009-011-019-023-029-033-037-039-047-053-055-063- 065-077-091-097-105-107-113-117-121-125-290040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE IBERVILLE JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON MADISON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY TANGIPAHOA TENSAS VERMILION WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-007-015-019-021-029-031-037-043-049-051-053-055-063- 065-077-079-083-085-089-091-097-113-121-123-125-127-129-147-149- 155-157-163-290040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 720 TORNADO AR LA MS TX CW 282015Z - 290300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Central and Southwest Louisiana Southwest Mississippi Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 900 PM CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Numerous severe/supercell thunderstorms are expected to intensify through the afternoon over east Texas and western Louisiana, spreading rapidly northeastward across the watch through early evening. Parameters are becoming increasingly favorable for tornadoes, including strong tornadoes, and widespread damaging winds through the watch period. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Port Arthur TX to 50 miles northeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 718...WW 719... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

MD 2304 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 720... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2304 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...far southeast Texas into central Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 720... Valid 282146Z - 282315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Particularly Dangerous Situation Tornado Watch 720. The greatest threat for significant tornadoes remains with a supercell across coastal southeast TX, though QLCS tornadoes remain possible across LA. DISCUSSION...A lone supercell across far southeast Coastal TX has produced a likely intense tornado that may have persisted for over 90 minutes, and is likely still be in progress. Even if this tornado dissipates soon, the parent steady-state supercell will continue to move along the coastline with continued significant tornado potential for at least the next few hours. Meanwhile, farther to the northeast, a QLCS continues to gradually organize and mature, with KPOE regional radar data suggesting that leading-line mesovortices and perhaps QLCS tornadoes may be developing. Current thinking is that the QLCS will persist across western into central LA with damaging gust and tornado potential through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. ..Squitieri.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 29989494 31179301 31889201 31509135 30759129 30159157 29799186 29619260 29589343 29519413 29549446 29989494 Read more

MD 2305 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 720... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LA INTO CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 2305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeastern LA into central MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 720... Valid 282156Z - 282300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development across southern MS and southeastern LA could pose a significant tornado threat over the coming hours. However, displaced east from the strongest synoptic forcing, it remains unclear how persistent the threat may be until later this evening. DISCUSSION...Across the eastern edge of PDS Tornado Watch 720, an isolated supercell (with recent reports of a tornado) was observed over northeastern Franklin County MS. Additional discrete development has been noted farther south into southeastern LA, likely along a subtle confluence axis stretching into the northern Gulf of Mexico. This storm has slowly organized over the last several hours, coincident with the northward advection of a weak warm front. An unstable air mass with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and strong low-level shear (300-400 m2/s2 ESRH JAN DGX VAD) is supportive of a continued severe threat. The strong low-level shear is also conditionally supportive of a strong and long-track tornado threat into central MS given the favorable storm mode. However, much of this activity is displaced farther east from the stronger synoptic forcing until later this evening. This could tend to make the threat somewhat intermittent until stronger forcing arrives. Thus, while the environment is favorable for a continued, and conditionally significant severe/tornado threat, there remains some uncertainty on the duration/longevity of the risk. ..Lyons.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31779096 31879096 32409067 32649053 32848993 32758961 32608931 32428926 31608957 31328986 31129006 31009060 31079101 31319106 31779096 Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BPT TO 30 S MLU TO 45 NE MLU. ..SPC..12/28/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-021-023-025-029-035-037-039-041-043-053- 055-059-065-077-079-083-097-107-113-115-123-125-282340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CAMERON CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE MADISON POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES RICHLAND ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERMILION VERNON WEST CARROLL WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-021-029-037-049-055-063-077-085-089-121-125-127-149- 151-157-163-282340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE COPIAH FRANKLIN HINDS Read more

MD 2303 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 720... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LA AND FAR WESTERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 2303 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeastern LA and far western MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 720... Valid 282117Z - 282215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues. SUMMARY...A maturing QLCS with a prominent bowing segment and several small supercells may pose an increasing threat for tornadoes and damaging gusts over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...As of 2110 UTC, local radar imagery showed a maturing QLCS across north-central LA. Within this intensifying line, a bowing segment/hybrid supercell structure has recently emerged over Natchitoches Parish. As upper-level forcing continuances to intensify with the approach of the upper-level trough, low-level wind fields have increased on area VADs. This is also evident in SPC mesoanalysis where a meso low has developed across southeastern AR with 2-3 mb/hr surface pressure falls. The QLCS should continue eastward into an unstable and strongly sheared air mass with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 300-400 m2/s2 of ESRH. The environmental trends, along with a recent report of a 72 mph wind gust, suggest damaging wind and QLCS tornado potential is increasing. Additionally, several small supercells east of the QLCS have developed stronger low-level mesocyclones over the last hour. As low-level shear intensifies, or storms interact with the surging line, the threat for tornadoes (including some strong) is expected to increase within this corridor from northeastern LA into far western MS. ..Lyons.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV... LAT...LON 33349126 33229073 32979058 32409060 32139082 31519206 31469267 31849279 33109209 33279158 33349126 Read more

WW 0720 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW LFK TO 15 SW IER TO 40 SW MLU TO 40 N MLU. ..WENDT..12/28/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-017-282240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC001-003-009-011-019-021-023-025-029-035-037-039-041-043-053- 055-059-065-067-069-073-077-079-083-085-097-107-113-115-123-125- 127-282240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL CAMERON CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE FRANKLIN GRANT JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES RICHLAND SABINE ST. LANDRY TENSAS VERMILION VERNON WEST CARROLL Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Strong westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow - with several embedded shortwave troughs - is expected to persist across the southern United States through at least Day 6/Thursday. At the surface, strong lee cyclogenesis is expected across the Southern Plains Day 3/Monday, followed by a building area of high pressure across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday: Southern High Plains... Enhanced mid-level winds are forecast to overspread much of the southern High Plains Day 3/Monday, with strengthening surface lee cyclogenesis promoting strong/gusty downslope westerly winds amidst near-critical minimum RH values. While there remains some uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness across parts of the area, fuels should continue to cure with warm/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow. Furthermore, the strength of the flow suggests Critical fire weather conditions will be possible even where fuels remain only marginally receptive. A 70% probability of Critical fire weather conditions was introduced where the best overlap of strong winds, critical RH, and at least modestly receptive fuels is expected. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern California... Surface high pressure is forecast to develop across the intermountain west Day 3/Monday and remain over the area into at least Day 6/Thursday, which will promote dry offshore flow as the pressure gradient strengthens. The latest ensemble guidance suggest the potential for a moderate Santa Ana wind event peaking Day 4/Tuesday - Day 6/Thursday with at least some upper-level support. 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were added across the wind-prone areas of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for Tuesday - Thursday. While elevated fire weather conditions may develop as early as Day 3/Monday, confidence in critical conditions is too low to include Critical probabilities at this time. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more