Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will continue to shift eastward across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted in portions of central into East Texas as well as portions of Arkansas/western Tennessee. These areas have been impacted by earlier convection and further destabilization does not appear likely. The remainder of the outlook, the Moderate risk area in particular, is unchanged. The corridor of greatest concern appears to be from portions of central Louisiana into southwest Mississippi. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are in place and the potential for discrete/semi-discrete storms should be maximized here later this afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet moves overhead and the low-level jet strengthens. ..Wendt.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move across the Northeast and toward the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. Upstream, another shortwave upper trough will develop eastward from the central Plains to the Midwest. A dry and stable airmass will mostly be left in the wake of the Northeast upper trough, as a surface cold front will largely be offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts Monday morning. However, southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf to the Ozarks as a surface low deepens over the central Plains in response to the digging upper low over that region. Nevertheless, richer boundary-layer moisture (60s F dewpoints) will remain confined to the western Gulf coast vicinity. More meager moisture (40s F dewpoints) will exist as far north as southern MO/IL. While a lightning flash or two is possible with developing precipitation during the evening/overnight, poor thermodynamics will preclude greater coverage of thunderstorms. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move across the Northeast and toward the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. Upstream, another shortwave upper trough will develop eastward from the central Plains to the Midwest. A dry and stable airmass will mostly be left in the wake of the Northeast upper trough, as a surface cold front will largely be offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts Monday morning. However, southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf to the Ozarks as a surface low deepens over the central Plains in response to the digging upper low over that region. Nevertheless, richer boundary-layer moisture (60s F dewpoints) will remain confined to the western Gulf coast vicinity. More meager moisture (40s F dewpoints) will exist as far north as southern MO/IL. While a lightning flash or two is possible with developing precipitation during the evening/overnight, poor thermodynamics will preclude greater coverage of thunderstorms. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move across the Northeast and toward the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. Upstream, another shortwave upper trough will develop eastward from the central Plains to the Midwest. A dry and stable airmass will mostly be left in the wake of the Northeast upper trough, as a surface cold front will largely be offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts Monday morning. However, southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf to the Ozarks as a surface low deepens over the central Plains in response to the digging upper low over that region. Nevertheless, richer boundary-layer moisture (60s F dewpoints) will remain confined to the western Gulf coast vicinity. More meager moisture (40s F dewpoints) will exist as far north as southern MO/IL. While a lightning flash or two is possible with developing precipitation during the evening/overnight, poor thermodynamics will preclude greater coverage of thunderstorms. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move across the Northeast and toward the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. Upstream, another shortwave upper trough will develop eastward from the central Plains to the Midwest. A dry and stable airmass will mostly be left in the wake of the Northeast upper trough, as a surface cold front will largely be offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts Monday morning. However, southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf to the Ozarks as a surface low deepens over the central Plains in response to the digging upper low over that region. Nevertheless, richer boundary-layer moisture (60s F dewpoints) will remain confined to the western Gulf coast vicinity. More meager moisture (40s F dewpoints) will exist as far north as southern MO/IL. While a lightning flash or two is possible with developing precipitation during the evening/overnight, poor thermodynamics will preclude greater coverage of thunderstorms. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more