Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today over most of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions prevailing in most areas. Isolated lightning strikes remain possible along the coast of ME for another couple of hours within a belt of strong onshore flow. This threat should end by 21z. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are forecast for today. ..Hart/Karstens.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today over most of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions prevailing in most areas. Isolated lightning strikes remain possible along the coast of ME for another couple of hours within a belt of strong onshore flow. This threat should end by 21z. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are forecast for today. ..Hart/Karstens.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today over most of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions prevailing in most areas. Isolated lightning strikes remain possible along the coast of ME for another couple of hours within a belt of strong onshore flow. This threat should end by 21z. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are forecast for today. ..Hart/Karstens.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today over most of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions prevailing in most areas. Isolated lightning strikes remain possible along the coast of ME for another couple of hours within a belt of strong onshore flow. This threat should end by 21z. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are forecast for today. ..Hart/Karstens.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today over most of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions prevailing in most areas. Isolated lightning strikes remain possible along the coast of ME for another couple of hours within a belt of strong onshore flow. This threat should end by 21z. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are forecast for today. ..Hart/Karstens.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today over most of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions prevailing in most areas. Isolated lightning strikes remain possible along the coast of ME for another couple of hours within a belt of strong onshore flow. This threat should end by 21z. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are forecast for today. ..Hart/Karstens.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions continue across portions of Southern California as a result of persistent weak offshore flow. These elevated conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the outlook period before surface pressure gradients relax during the day. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, surface pressure gradients will once again increase resulting in an increase in offshore winds and one more night of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions continue across portions of Southern California as a result of persistent weak offshore flow. These elevated conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the outlook period before surface pressure gradients relax during the day. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, surface pressure gradients will once again increase resulting in an increase in offshore winds and one more night of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions continue across portions of Southern California as a result of persistent weak offshore flow. These elevated conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the outlook period before surface pressure gradients relax during the day. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, surface pressure gradients will once again increase resulting in an increase in offshore winds and one more night of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions continue across portions of Southern California as a result of persistent weak offshore flow. These elevated conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the outlook period before surface pressure gradients relax during the day. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, surface pressure gradients will once again increase resulting in an increase in offshore winds and one more night of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions continue across portions of Southern California as a result of persistent weak offshore flow. These elevated conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the outlook period before surface pressure gradients relax during the day. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, surface pressure gradients will once again increase resulting in an increase in offshore winds and one more night of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions continue across portions of Southern California as a result of persistent weak offshore flow. These elevated conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the outlook period before surface pressure gradients relax during the day. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, surface pressure gradients will once again increase resulting in an increase in offshore winds and one more night of elevated fire weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS, a mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northeastward over New England and the Canadian Maritimes today. A related coastal surface low near southern New England is expected to develop northward into ME by this evening. Even though instability will remain very weak, isolated lightning flashes will remain possible for at least a few more hours across parts of coastal New England in the low-level warm advection regime of the cyclone. Dry and/or stable conditions and minimal thunderstorm potential are forecast today for the rest of the CONUS. ..Gleason/Grams.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS, a mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northeastward over New England and the Canadian Maritimes today. A related coastal surface low near southern New England is expected to develop northward into ME by this evening. Even though instability will remain very weak, isolated lightning flashes will remain possible for at least a few more hours across parts of coastal New England in the low-level warm advection regime of the cyclone. Dry and/or stable conditions and minimal thunderstorm potential are forecast today for the rest of the CONUS. ..Gleason/Grams.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS, a mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northeastward over New England and the Canadian Maritimes today. A related coastal surface low near southern New England is expected to develop northward into ME by this evening. Even though instability will remain very weak, isolated lightning flashes will remain possible for at least a few more hours across parts of coastal New England in the low-level warm advection regime of the cyclone. Dry and/or stable conditions and minimal thunderstorm potential are forecast today for the rest of the CONUS. ..Gleason/Grams.. 01/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern CONUS, a mid-level shortwave trough will rotate northeastward over New England and the Canadian Maritimes today. A related coastal surface low near southern New England is expected to develop northward into ME by this evening. Even though instability will remain very weak, isolated lightning flashes will remain possible for at least a few more hours across parts of coastal New England in the low-level warm advection regime of the cyclone. Dry and/or stable conditions and minimal thunderstorm potential are forecast today for the rest of the CONUS. ..Gleason/Grams.. 01/01/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is expected to progress from the western Great Basin through the central Rockies and into central/southern Plains on D4/Saturday, continuing eastward across the Mid/Lower MS Valley on D5/Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this wave over the southern High Plains on D4/Saturday, with the resulting low tracking eastward across OK. Strengthening low-level southerly flow ahead of this low will result in moderate moisture advection, with a warm sector characterized by 60s dewpoints preceding the low and its attendant cold front. Thunderstorms are possible from central TX/OK eastward through the Lower MS Valley on D5/Sunday, as the cold front interacts with the moderately moist and buoyant air within the warm sector. Deep-layer vertical shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms (i.e. greater than 40 kt from 0-6 km). Latest deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS continued to show notable differences, particularly with the overall speed of the shortwave and its associated surface low. However, EPS and GEFS members shows greater consistency, with numerous members placing the surface low over the AR vicinity by D5/Sunday evening. Consequently, there is increased confidence that the environment over the Lower MS Valley will support severe thunderstorms D5/Sunday afternoon, with the threat potentially continuing into the Southeast overnight. The risk for thunderstorms will likely continue across the Southeast on D6/Monday as this system continues eastward. Cold and dry conditions are anticipated across the entire CONUS on D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is expected to progress from the western Great Basin through the central Rockies and into central/southern Plains on D4/Saturday, continuing eastward across the Mid/Lower MS Valley on D5/Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this wave over the southern High Plains on D4/Saturday, with the resulting low tracking eastward across OK. Strengthening low-level southerly flow ahead of this low will result in moderate moisture advection, with a warm sector characterized by 60s dewpoints preceding the low and its attendant cold front. Thunderstorms are possible from central TX/OK eastward through the Lower MS Valley on D5/Sunday, as the cold front interacts with the moderately moist and buoyant air within the warm sector. Deep-layer vertical shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms (i.e. greater than 40 kt from 0-6 km). Latest deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS continued to show notable differences, particularly with the overall speed of the shortwave and its associated surface low. However, EPS and GEFS members shows greater consistency, with numerous members placing the surface low over the AR vicinity by D5/Sunday evening. Consequently, there is increased confidence that the environment over the Lower MS Valley will support severe thunderstorms D5/Sunday afternoon, with the threat potentially continuing into the Southeast overnight. The risk for thunderstorms will likely continue across the Southeast on D6/Monday as this system continues eastward. Cold and dry conditions are anticipated across the entire CONUS on D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is expected to progress from the western Great Basin through the central Rockies and into central/southern Plains on D4/Saturday, continuing eastward across the Mid/Lower MS Valley on D5/Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this wave over the southern High Plains on D4/Saturday, with the resulting low tracking eastward across OK. Strengthening low-level southerly flow ahead of this low will result in moderate moisture advection, with a warm sector characterized by 60s dewpoints preceding the low and its attendant cold front. Thunderstorms are possible from central TX/OK eastward through the Lower MS Valley on D5/Sunday, as the cold front interacts with the moderately moist and buoyant air within the warm sector. Deep-layer vertical shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms (i.e. greater than 40 kt from 0-6 km). Latest deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS continued to show notable differences, particularly with the overall speed of the shortwave and its associated surface low. However, EPS and GEFS members shows greater consistency, with numerous members placing the surface low over the AR vicinity by D5/Sunday evening. Consequently, there is increased confidence that the environment over the Lower MS Valley will support severe thunderstorms D5/Sunday afternoon, with the threat potentially continuing into the Southeast overnight. The risk for thunderstorms will likely continue across the Southeast on D6/Monday as this system continues eastward. Cold and dry conditions are anticipated across the entire CONUS on D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Wed Jan 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is expected to progress from the western Great Basin through the central Rockies and into central/southern Plains on D4/Saturday, continuing eastward across the Mid/Lower MS Valley on D5/Sunday. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this wave over the southern High Plains on D4/Saturday, with the resulting low tracking eastward across OK. Strengthening low-level southerly flow ahead of this low will result in moderate moisture advection, with a warm sector characterized by 60s dewpoints preceding the low and its attendant cold front. Thunderstorms are possible from central TX/OK eastward through the Lower MS Valley on D5/Sunday, as the cold front interacts with the moderately moist and buoyant air within the warm sector. Deep-layer vertical shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms (i.e. greater than 40 kt from 0-6 km). Latest deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS continued to show notable differences, particularly with the overall speed of the shortwave and its associated surface low. However, EPS and GEFS members shows greater consistency, with numerous members placing the surface low over the AR vicinity by D5/Sunday evening. Consequently, there is increased confidence that the environment over the Lower MS Valley will support severe thunderstorms D5/Sunday afternoon, with the threat potentially continuing into the Southeast overnight. The risk for thunderstorms will likely continue across the Southeast on D6/Monday as this system continues eastward. Cold and dry conditions are anticipated across the entire CONUS on D7/Tuesday and D8/Wednesday. Read more