Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning from far northwest Texas across central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. ...Synopsis... As the upper trough over the Northeast slowly lifts/weakens, a potent shortwave trough will move rapidly from the Great Basin Saturday morning and across the central Plains into early Sunday. High pressure will remain entrenched from the northern Plains into the Southeast, but low pressure will develop over the southern High Plains late in the day, moving into OK by 12Z Sunday. Increasing southerly winds in the low levels will bring a plume of 50s F dewpoints northward across TX and toward the low over OK Sunday morning. At that time, a warm front will generally extend from the low southeastward into central MS. Several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may eventually develop, most likely from OK toward the ArkLaTex. Although moistening, the boundary layer may remain capped over most areas, with the highest probability of elevated thunderstorms near the low and north of the warm front. Given the small window in time and space for uncapped surface-based parcel potential, the presence of strong shear should be moot, and severe storms are not expected. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Latest guidance consensus shows some modestly dry and breezy conditions along the coastal Carolinas tomorrow (Friday) afternoon with the passage of a cold front. However, the marginally dry/breezy conditions, along with modest fuel receptiveness, suggests that any wildfire-spread threat that materializes should remain localized. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Latest guidance consensus shows some modestly dry and breezy conditions along the coastal Carolinas tomorrow (Friday) afternoon with the passage of a cold front. However, the marginally dry/breezy conditions, along with modest fuel receptiveness, suggests that any wildfire-spread threat that materializes should remain localized. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Latest guidance consensus shows some modestly dry and breezy conditions along the coastal Carolinas tomorrow (Friday) afternoon with the passage of a cold front. However, the marginally dry/breezy conditions, along with modest fuel receptiveness, suggests that any wildfire-spread threat that materializes should remain localized. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Latest guidance consensus shows some modestly dry and breezy conditions along the coastal Carolinas tomorrow (Friday) afternoon with the passage of a cold front. However, the marginally dry/breezy conditions, along with modest fuel receptiveness, suggests that any wildfire-spread threat that materializes should remain localized. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Latest guidance consensus shows some modestly dry and breezy conditions along the coastal Carolinas tomorrow (Friday) afternoon with the passage of a cold front. However, the marginally dry/breezy conditions, along with modest fuel receptiveness, suggests that any wildfire-spread threat that materializes should remain localized. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Latest guidance consensus shows some modestly dry and breezy conditions along the coastal Carolinas tomorrow (Friday) afternoon with the passage of a cold front. However, the marginally dry/breezy conditions, along with modest fuel receptiveness, suggests that any wildfire-spread threat that materializes should remain localized. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Latest guidance consensus shows some modestly dry and breezy conditions along the coastal Carolinas tomorrow (Friday) afternoon with the passage of a cold front. However, the marginally dry/breezy conditions, along with modest fuel receptiveness, suggests that any wildfire-spread threat that materializes should remain localized. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 01/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns should be minimal through the forecast period. A deep long-wave trough will be located across the eastern US, with a full latitude CONUS ridge over the Rockies. Although a sharp trough will approach the California coast, winds across southern California will turn more onshore, increasing relative humidity and ending the recent offshore wind event. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur Friday afternoon and evening over the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... The pattern on Friday will feature an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, with a western ridge breaking down late. The shortwave trough responsible for the ridge breakdown will provide rapid cooling aloft late in the day from northern CA into western WA and OR, and overnight across the Great Basin. Given favorable diurnal timing/steepening lapse rates, a few lightning flashes with low-topped convection is possible near coastal counties as a cold front approaches. Elsewhere, high pressure will maintain dry and/or stable conditions over land. A few thunderstorms may occur over the northwest Gulf of Mexico with a weak low well offshore. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur Friday afternoon and evening over the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... The pattern on Friday will feature an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, with a western ridge breaking down late. The shortwave trough responsible for the ridge breakdown will provide rapid cooling aloft late in the day from northern CA into western WA and OR, and overnight across the Great Basin. Given favorable diurnal timing/steepening lapse rates, a few lightning flashes with low-topped convection is possible near coastal counties as a cold front approaches. Elsewhere, high pressure will maintain dry and/or stable conditions over land. A few thunderstorms may occur over the northwest Gulf of Mexico with a weak low well offshore. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur Friday afternoon and evening over the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... The pattern on Friday will feature an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, with a western ridge breaking down late. The shortwave trough responsible for the ridge breakdown will provide rapid cooling aloft late in the day from northern CA into western WA and OR, and overnight across the Great Basin. Given favorable diurnal timing/steepening lapse rates, a few lightning flashes with low-topped convection is possible near coastal counties as a cold front approaches. Elsewhere, high pressure will maintain dry and/or stable conditions over land. A few thunderstorms may occur over the northwest Gulf of Mexico with a weak low well offshore. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur Friday afternoon and evening over the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... The pattern on Friday will feature an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, with a western ridge breaking down late. The shortwave trough responsible for the ridge breakdown will provide rapid cooling aloft late in the day from northern CA into western WA and OR, and overnight across the Great Basin. Given favorable diurnal timing/steepening lapse rates, a few lightning flashes with low-topped convection is possible near coastal counties as a cold front approaches. Elsewhere, high pressure will maintain dry and/or stable conditions over land. A few thunderstorms may occur over the northwest Gulf of Mexico with a weak low well offshore. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur Friday afternoon and evening over the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... The pattern on Friday will feature an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, with a western ridge breaking down late. The shortwave trough responsible for the ridge breakdown will provide rapid cooling aloft late in the day from northern CA into western WA and OR, and overnight across the Great Basin. Given favorable diurnal timing/steepening lapse rates, a few lightning flashes with low-topped convection is possible near coastal counties as a cold front approaches. Elsewhere, high pressure will maintain dry and/or stable conditions over land. A few thunderstorms may occur over the northwest Gulf of Mexico with a weak low well offshore. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur Friday afternoon and evening over the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... The pattern on Friday will feature an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, with a western ridge breaking down late. The shortwave trough responsible for the ridge breakdown will provide rapid cooling aloft late in the day from northern CA into western WA and OR, and overnight across the Great Basin. Given favorable diurnal timing/steepening lapse rates, a few lightning flashes with low-topped convection is possible near coastal counties as a cold front approaches. Elsewhere, high pressure will maintain dry and/or stable conditions over land. A few thunderstorms may occur over the northwest Gulf of Mexico with a weak low well offshore. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic lightning flashes may occur Friday afternoon and evening over the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... The pattern on Friday will feature an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, with a western ridge breaking down late. The shortwave trough responsible for the ridge breakdown will provide rapid cooling aloft late in the day from northern CA into western WA and OR, and overnight across the Great Basin. Given favorable diurnal timing/steepening lapse rates, a few lightning flashes with low-topped convection is possible near coastal counties as a cold front approaches. Elsewhere, high pressure will maintain dry and/or stable conditions over land. A few thunderstorms may occur over the northwest Gulf of Mexico with a weak low well offshore. ..Jewell.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, The general pattern is forecast to slowly amplify as weak troughing with broad cyclonic flow will persist over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. At the same time, ridging will intensify over the West. This will favor increasingly strong (80-100 kts) northwesterly flow over the central US. As a result, strong high pressure at the surface is expected over the northern Plains and Southeast. With cold temperatures and dry/stable offshore flow, little to no buoyancy is expected inland, aside from extreme southern/coastal TX. This will suppress thunderstorm potential below 10% coverage. ..Lyons.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, The general pattern is forecast to slowly amplify as weak troughing with broad cyclonic flow will persist over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. At the same time, ridging will intensify over the West. This will favor increasingly strong (80-100 kts) northwesterly flow over the central US. As a result, strong high pressure at the surface is expected over the northern Plains and Southeast. With cold temperatures and dry/stable offshore flow, little to no buoyancy is expected inland, aside from extreme southern/coastal TX. This will suppress thunderstorm potential below 10% coverage. ..Lyons.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, The general pattern is forecast to slowly amplify as weak troughing with broad cyclonic flow will persist over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. At the same time, ridging will intensify over the West. This will favor increasingly strong (80-100 kts) northwesterly flow over the central US. As a result, strong high pressure at the surface is expected over the northern Plains and Southeast. With cold temperatures and dry/stable offshore flow, little to no buoyancy is expected inland, aside from extreme southern/coastal TX. This will suppress thunderstorm potential below 10% coverage. ..Lyons.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, The general pattern is forecast to slowly amplify as weak troughing with broad cyclonic flow will persist over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. At the same time, ridging will intensify over the West. This will favor increasingly strong (80-100 kts) northwesterly flow over the central US. As a result, strong high pressure at the surface is expected over the northern Plains and Southeast. With cold temperatures and dry/stable offshore flow, little to no buoyancy is expected inland, aside from extreme southern/coastal TX. This will suppress thunderstorm potential below 10% coverage. ..Lyons.. 01/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Thu Jan 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... In the mid levels, The general pattern is forecast to slowly amplify as weak troughing with broad cyclonic flow will persist over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. At the same time, ridging will intensify over the West. This will favor increasingly strong (80-100 kts) northwesterly flow over the central US. As a result, strong high pressure at the surface is expected over the northern Plains and Southeast. With cold temperatures and dry/stable offshore flow, little to no buoyancy is expected inland, aside from extreme southern/coastal TX. This will suppress thunderstorm potential below 10% coverage. ..Lyons.. 01/02/2025 Read more