Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi Valley. Severe wind gusts, tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats. ...Sabine River Valley to central Gulf States... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough advancing east across CO/NM. This feature is forecast to strengthen as it progresses into eastern KS/OK, with a closed low expected to form as deepens. By 18z, the 500mb low should be over southeastern KS with subsequent movement into southern IL by the end of the period. This deepening low will be reflected at the surface by a sharp cold front that will extend from eastern OK into central TX at sunrise. The boundary will surge east during the day serving as the primary focus for organized convection. Early in the period, elevated convection is expected along a corridor of strong warm advection from eastern KS into western TN. Intense LLJ will be focused across the lower MS Valley through 18z, then shift east, extending across northern MS into southern KY by early evening. Boundary-layer moistening is expected to be aided by LLJ, with gradual destabilization forecast ahead of the front, especially across the lower MS Valley. Latest data does, however, maintain a cooler, stable boundary layer across much of TN where poor low-level trajectories will inhibit destabilization. Latest thinking is the greatest potential for boundary-layer destabilization will be across east TX/LA into portions of MS. Given the strong, dynamic short wave and intense mid-level height falls, a forced line of convection should develop along the cold front, possibly as early as late morning. Scattered convection may initiate across the warm sector over eastern OK shortly after 12z, then gradually expand in areal coverage with a broken squall line, or QLCS, likely by 18-20z from northern AR-northwest LA-southeast TX. Strong shear favors organized squall line, and embedded supercells. Additionally, if adequate warm-sector destabilization occurs, isolated supercells may develop ahead of the squall line. Severe wind gusts and tornadoes are the greatest concern, though some risk for marginally severe hail is also possible. Organized QLCS should propagate across the lower MS Valley into western AL during the evening where it will encounter a more stable air mass. Severe probabilities are notably lower across this lower buoyancy environment. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Update... No changes are warranted from the 20z outlook. Strong mid-level short-wave trough is advancing across the central/southern Rockies and high-level diffluent flow aloft is now evident across the Plains. Strong height falls will overspread the central/southern High Plains tonight and elevated convection is expected to develop. 00z soundings from across this region exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates, but poor moisture quality. Even so, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection corridor, from Kansas into the Mid-South. ..Darrow.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Update... No changes are warranted from the 20z outlook. Strong mid-level short-wave trough is advancing across the central/southern Rockies and high-level diffluent flow aloft is now evident across the Plains. Strong height falls will overspread the central/southern High Plains tonight and elevated convection is expected to develop. 00z soundings from across this region exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates, but poor moisture quality. Even so, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection corridor, from Kansas into the Mid-South. ..Darrow.. 01/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...01z Update... No changes are warranted from the 20z outlook. Strong mid-level short-wave trough is advancing across the central/southern Rockies and high-level diffluent flow aloft is now evident across the Plains. Strong height falls will overspread the central/southern High Plains tonight and elevated convection is expected to develop. 00z soundings from across this region exhibit steep mid-level lapse rates, but poor moisture quality. Even so, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection corridor, from Kansas into the Mid-South. ..Darrow.. 01/05/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 4 22:38:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 4 22:38:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns through next week will primarily be focused along the southern CA coast where a prolonged offshore wind event is expected Tuesday through late Thursday. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, widespread precipitation chances, and/or poor fuel status will limit additional fire concerns. ...Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper wave over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D4/Tuesday. A gradual east/southeastward shift of the upper trough will maintain strong north/northeasterly mid/upper-level winds over southern CA. This, coupled with an unseasonably strong surface high over the northern Great Basin, will promote strengthening offshore winds along the southern CA coast. Most long-range ensemble families hint at light/isolated precipitation chances during the day Tuesday with the passage of the primary upper trough, but this is not expected to significantly impact the fire environment as offshore winds begin to increase through the day. Critical fire weather conditions may begin as early as late Tuesday afternoon with increasing confidence in critical conditions heading into early Wednesday morning. In general, guidance continues to suggest that the passage of the mid/upper jet will occur sometime Wednesday morning when the LAX-DAG gradient should peak between -5 to -7 mb. This should coincide with the strongest offshore winds and greatest downslope warming/drying in the of the coastal terrain. Historically, this regime supports critical (even high-end critical) fire weather conditions, and while confidence in precise wind speeds/RH reductions is limited at this range, confidence in critical conditions remains high for Wednesday. Offshore winds are expected to gradually abate through Thursday into early Friday, though there is some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions during this period. Previous risk probabilities are maintained in this outlook given the aforementioned uncertainties on D4/Tue and D6/Thu, but further forecast refinements are expected heading into next week. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns through next week will primarily be focused along the southern CA coast where a prolonged offshore wind event is expected Tuesday through late Thursday. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, widespread precipitation chances, and/or poor fuel status will limit additional fire concerns. ...Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper wave over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D4/Tuesday. A gradual east/southeastward shift of the upper trough will maintain strong north/northeasterly mid/upper-level winds over southern CA. This, coupled with an unseasonably strong surface high over the northern Great Basin, will promote strengthening offshore winds along the southern CA coast. Most long-range ensemble families hint at light/isolated precipitation chances during the day Tuesday with the passage of the primary upper trough, but this is not expected to significantly impact the fire environment as offshore winds begin to increase through the day. Critical fire weather conditions may begin as early as late Tuesday afternoon with increasing confidence in critical conditions heading into early Wednesday morning. In general, guidance continues to suggest that the passage of the mid/upper jet will occur sometime Wednesday morning when the LAX-DAG gradient should peak between -5 to -7 mb. This should coincide with the strongest offshore winds and greatest downslope warming/drying in the of the coastal terrain. Historically, this regime supports critical (even high-end critical) fire weather conditions, and while confidence in precise wind speeds/RH reductions is limited at this range, confidence in critical conditions remains high for Wednesday. Offshore winds are expected to gradually abate through Thursday into early Friday, though there is some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions during this period. Previous risk probabilities are maintained in this outlook given the aforementioned uncertainties on D4/Tue and D6/Thu, but further forecast refinements are expected heading into next week. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns through next week will primarily be focused along the southern CA coast where a prolonged offshore wind event is expected Tuesday through late Thursday. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, widespread precipitation chances, and/or poor fuel status will limit additional fire concerns. ...Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper wave over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D4/Tuesday. A gradual east/southeastward shift of the upper trough will maintain strong north/northeasterly mid/upper-level winds over southern CA. This, coupled with an unseasonably strong surface high over the northern Great Basin, will promote strengthening offshore winds along the southern CA coast. Most long-range ensemble families hint at light/isolated precipitation chances during the day Tuesday with the passage of the primary upper trough, but this is not expected to significantly impact the fire environment as offshore winds begin to increase through the day. Critical fire weather conditions may begin as early as late Tuesday afternoon with increasing confidence in critical conditions heading into early Wednesday morning. In general, guidance continues to suggest that the passage of the mid/upper jet will occur sometime Wednesday morning when the LAX-DAG gradient should peak between -5 to -7 mb. This should coincide with the strongest offshore winds and greatest downslope warming/drying in the of the coastal terrain. Historically, this regime supports critical (even high-end critical) fire weather conditions, and while confidence in precise wind speeds/RH reductions is limited at this range, confidence in critical conditions remains high for Wednesday. Offshore winds are expected to gradually abate through Thursday into early Friday, though there is some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions during this period. Previous risk probabilities are maintained in this outlook given the aforementioned uncertainties on D4/Tue and D6/Thu, but further forecast refinements are expected heading into next week. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns through next week will primarily be focused along the southern CA coast where a prolonged offshore wind event is expected Tuesday through late Thursday. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, widespread precipitation chances, and/or poor fuel status will limit additional fire concerns. ...Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper wave over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D4/Tuesday. A gradual east/southeastward shift of the upper trough will maintain strong north/northeasterly mid/upper-level winds over southern CA. This, coupled with an unseasonably strong surface high over the northern Great Basin, will promote strengthening offshore winds along the southern CA coast. Most long-range ensemble families hint at light/isolated precipitation chances during the day Tuesday with the passage of the primary upper trough, but this is not expected to significantly impact the fire environment as offshore winds begin to increase through the day. Critical fire weather conditions may begin as early as late Tuesday afternoon with increasing confidence in critical conditions heading into early Wednesday morning. In general, guidance continues to suggest that the passage of the mid/upper jet will occur sometime Wednesday morning when the LAX-DAG gradient should peak between -5 to -7 mb. This should coincide with the strongest offshore winds and greatest downslope warming/drying in the of the coastal terrain. Historically, this regime supports critical (even high-end critical) fire weather conditions, and while confidence in precise wind speeds/RH reductions is limited at this range, confidence in critical conditions remains high for Wednesday. Offshore winds are expected to gradually abate through Thursday into early Friday, though there is some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions during this period. Previous risk probabilities are maintained in this outlook given the aforementioned uncertainties on D4/Tue and D6/Thu, but further forecast refinements are expected heading into next week. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns through next week will primarily be focused along the southern CA coast where a prolonged offshore wind event is expected Tuesday through late Thursday. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, widespread precipitation chances, and/or poor fuel status will limit additional fire concerns. ...Southern California... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the amplification of an upper wave over the southern Great Basin/lower CO River Valley beginning on D4/Tuesday. A gradual east/southeastward shift of the upper trough will maintain strong north/northeasterly mid/upper-level winds over southern CA. This, coupled with an unseasonably strong surface high over the northern Great Basin, will promote strengthening offshore winds along the southern CA coast. Most long-range ensemble families hint at light/isolated precipitation chances during the day Tuesday with the passage of the primary upper trough, but this is not expected to significantly impact the fire environment as offshore winds begin to increase through the day. Critical fire weather conditions may begin as early as late Tuesday afternoon with increasing confidence in critical conditions heading into early Wednesday morning. In general, guidance continues to suggest that the passage of the mid/upper jet will occur sometime Wednesday morning when the LAX-DAG gradient should peak between -5 to -7 mb. This should coincide with the strongest offshore winds and greatest downslope warming/drying in the of the coastal terrain. Historically, this regime supports critical (even high-end critical) fire weather conditions, and while confidence in precise wind speeds/RH reductions is limited at this range, confidence in critical conditions remains high for Wednesday. Offshore winds are expected to gradually abate through Thursday into early Friday, though there is some uncertainty regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions during this period. Previous risk probabilities are maintained in this outlook given the aforementioned uncertainties on D4/Tue and D6/Thu, but further forecast refinements are expected heading into next week. ..Moore.. 01/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A pronounced mid-level trough continues to amplify while traversing the Inter-mountain West, supporting a gradual increase in the strength of a low-level jet, which is currently positioned over the Plains states. Objective analysis shows richer low-level moisture over TX, which is poised to reach the central Plains/MS Valley regions later tonight into early Sunday morning. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, as elevated thunderstorms should initiate within a low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A pronounced mid-level trough continues to amplify while traversing the Inter-mountain West, supporting a gradual increase in the strength of a low-level jet, which is currently positioned over the Plains states. Objective analysis shows richer low-level moisture over TX, which is poised to reach the central Plains/MS Valley regions later tonight into early Sunday morning. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, as elevated thunderstorms should initiate within a low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A pronounced mid-level trough continues to amplify while traversing the Inter-mountain West, supporting a gradual increase in the strength of a low-level jet, which is currently positioned over the Plains states. Objective analysis shows richer low-level moisture over TX, which is poised to reach the central Plains/MS Valley regions later tonight into early Sunday morning. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, as elevated thunderstorms should initiate within a low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A pronounced mid-level trough continues to amplify while traversing the Inter-mountain West, supporting a gradual increase in the strength of a low-level jet, which is currently positioned over the Plains states. Objective analysis shows richer low-level moisture over TX, which is poised to reach the central Plains/MS Valley regions later tonight into early Sunday morning. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, as elevated thunderstorms should initiate within a low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A pronounced mid-level trough continues to amplify while traversing the Inter-mountain West, supporting a gradual increase in the strength of a low-level jet, which is currently positioned over the Plains states. Objective analysis shows richer low-level moisture over TX, which is poised to reach the central Plains/MS Valley regions later tonight into early Sunday morning. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, as elevated thunderstorms should initiate within a low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A pronounced mid-level trough continues to amplify while traversing the Inter-mountain West, supporting a gradual increase in the strength of a low-level jet, which is currently positioned over the Plains states. Objective analysis shows richer low-level moisture over TX, which is poised to reach the central Plains/MS Valley regions later tonight into early Sunday morning. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, as elevated thunderstorms should initiate within a low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20Z Update... A pronounced mid-level trough continues to amplify while traversing the Inter-mountain West, supporting a gradual increase in the strength of a low-level jet, which is currently positioned over the Plains states. Objective analysis shows richer low-level moisture over TX, which is poised to reach the central Plains/MS Valley regions later tonight into early Sunday morning. As such, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, as elevated thunderstorms should initiate within a low-level warm-air/moisture advection regime. ..Squitieri.. 01/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/ ...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight... In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast. This moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High Plains. Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime, especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern MO tonight. Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after 06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS into west central MO. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level low, expected to reside near the Mid-Mississippi Valley early Monday, will shift quickly eastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through latter stages of the period (Tuesday morning). Meanwhile at the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast, clearing the coastal Carolinas/Georgia by sunset, and then moving south/east of Florida 12Z Tuesday. ...Parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida... Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along the cold front at the start of the period, from the southern Appalachians vicinity south-southwestward across the Florida Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico. Meager instability is forecast ahead of the front, and with stronger large-scale forcing for ascent well to the north of the region, these factors suggest limited storm organization/intensity. Still, with a favorably sheared environment across the region, a few stronger storms/segments are expected. This suggests low-probability potential for a couple of stronger gusts -- or even a brief tornado. As such, will maintain MRGL/5% risk across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level low, expected to reside near the Mid-Mississippi Valley early Monday, will shift quickly eastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through latter stages of the period (Tuesday morning). Meanwhile at the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast, clearing the coastal Carolinas/Georgia by sunset, and then moving south/east of Florida 12Z Tuesday. ...Parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida... Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along the cold front at the start of the period, from the southern Appalachians vicinity south-southwestward across the Florida Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico. Meager instability is forecast ahead of the front, and with stronger large-scale forcing for ascent well to the north of the region, these factors suggest limited storm organization/intensity. Still, with a favorably sheared environment across the region, a few stronger storms/segments are expected. This suggests low-probability potential for a couple of stronger gusts -- or even a brief tornado. As such, will maintain MRGL/5% risk across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025 Read more