Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low today. ...Discussion... Mid-level speed max will strengthen as it digs south across CA and off the Baja Peninsula. This will allow a short-wave trough to settle south of the international border and close off over the northern Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent/steepening lapse rates across AZ do result in some mid-level moistening that leads to very weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings do not suggest adequate instability for any appreciable risk of lightning with the weak convection that develops across this region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low today. ...Discussion... Mid-level speed max will strengthen as it digs south across CA and off the Baja Peninsula. This will allow a short-wave trough to settle south of the international border and close off over the northern Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent/steepening lapse rates across AZ do result in some mid-level moistening that leads to very weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings do not suggest adequate instability for any appreciable risk of lightning with the weak convection that develops across this region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low today. ...Discussion... Mid-level speed max will strengthen as it digs south across CA and off the Baja Peninsula. This will allow a short-wave trough to settle south of the international border and close off over the northern Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent/steepening lapse rates across AZ do result in some mid-level moistening that leads to very weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings do not suggest adequate instability for any appreciable risk of lightning with the weak convection that develops across this region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low today. ...Discussion... Mid-level speed max will strengthen as it digs south across CA and off the Baja Peninsula. This will allow a short-wave trough to settle south of the international border and close off over the northern Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent/steepening lapse rates across AZ do result in some mid-level moistening that leads to very weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings do not suggest adequate instability for any appreciable risk of lightning with the weak convection that develops across this region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is very low today. ...Discussion... Mid-level speed max will strengthen as it digs south across CA and off the Baja Peninsula. This will allow a short-wave trough to settle south of the international border and close off over the northern Gulf of CA by the end of the period. Large-scale ascent/steepening lapse rates across AZ do result in some mid-level moistening that leads to very weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings do not suggest adequate instability for any appreciable risk of lightning with the weak convection that develops across this region. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is expected to gradually deepen across the southern FL Peninsula tonight as a sharp cold front surges off the southern tip of the state after 09z. A few weak showers are noted along this boundary northwest of FMY, but thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is expected to gradually deepen across the southern FL Peninsula tonight as a sharp cold front surges off the southern tip of the state after 09z. A few weak showers are noted along this boundary northwest of FMY, but thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is expected to gradually deepen across the southern FL Peninsula tonight as a sharp cold front surges off the southern tip of the state after 09z. A few weak showers are noted along this boundary northwest of FMY, but thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is expected to gradually deepen across the southern FL Peninsula tonight as a sharp cold front surges off the southern tip of the state after 09z. A few weak showers are noted along this boundary northwest of FMY, but thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 01/07/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 6 22:20:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 6 22:20:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected along the southern California coast at the start of the extended period before a relatively quiescent period of limited fire weather concerns across the country - largely driven by recent widespread precipitation and cold temperatures across the country. ..D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - Southern California... Critical fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period/12 UTC Wednesday along the southern CA coast. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts an upper ridge building along the West Coast with an embedded shortwave trough propagating southward across the Pacific Northwest. This shortwave will amplify over the next 48 hours as it migrates into the lower CO River Valley. A building surface high over the Great Basin coupled with strengthening offshore mid-level winds will induce a strong, prolonged offshore wind event along the southern CA coast beginning on D2/Tuesday and persisting into D4/Thursday. Medium-range deterministic guidance suggests widespread sustained winds between 25-35 mph are expected with gusts between 50-60 mph possible within the coastal terrain. While 25+ mph winds are expected for much of the day, the general ensemble consensus continues to indicate that the peak offshore pressure gradient will occur on Wednesday morning, which may support isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph in terrain favored areas. Relative humidity reductions down to 10-15% are expected, and a few locations may see RH values fall into the upper single digits. As such, some locations may experience periods of extremely critical fire weather conditions Wednesday morning and afternoon. Wind speeds will gradually abate beginning early Thursday morning into early Friday as the upper wave shifts east. Model spread regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions remains high, but critical wind speeds will likely persist within the higher terrain of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Thursday morning. Consequently, 70% risk probabilities have been introduced, and may need to be expanded as confidence in the wind forecast increases. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected along the southern California coast at the start of the extended period before a relatively quiescent period of limited fire weather concerns across the country - largely driven by recent widespread precipitation and cold temperatures across the country. ..D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - Southern California... Critical fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period/12 UTC Wednesday along the southern CA coast. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts an upper ridge building along the West Coast with an embedded shortwave trough propagating southward across the Pacific Northwest. This shortwave will amplify over the next 48 hours as it migrates into the lower CO River Valley. A building surface high over the Great Basin coupled with strengthening offshore mid-level winds will induce a strong, prolonged offshore wind event along the southern CA coast beginning on D2/Tuesday and persisting into D4/Thursday. Medium-range deterministic guidance suggests widespread sustained winds between 25-35 mph are expected with gusts between 50-60 mph possible within the coastal terrain. While 25+ mph winds are expected for much of the day, the general ensemble consensus continues to indicate that the peak offshore pressure gradient will occur on Wednesday morning, which may support isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph in terrain favored areas. Relative humidity reductions down to 10-15% are expected, and a few locations may see RH values fall into the upper single digits. As such, some locations may experience periods of extremely critical fire weather conditions Wednesday morning and afternoon. Wind speeds will gradually abate beginning early Thursday morning into early Friday as the upper wave shifts east. Model spread regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions remains high, but critical wind speeds will likely persist within the higher terrain of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Thursday morning. Consequently, 70% risk probabilities have been introduced, and may need to be expanded as confidence in the wind forecast increases. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected along the southern California coast at the start of the extended period before a relatively quiescent period of limited fire weather concerns across the country - largely driven by recent widespread precipitation and cold temperatures across the country. ..D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - Southern California... Critical fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period/12 UTC Wednesday along the southern CA coast. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts an upper ridge building along the West Coast with an embedded shortwave trough propagating southward across the Pacific Northwest. This shortwave will amplify over the next 48 hours as it migrates into the lower CO River Valley. A building surface high over the Great Basin coupled with strengthening offshore mid-level winds will induce a strong, prolonged offshore wind event along the southern CA coast beginning on D2/Tuesday and persisting into D4/Thursday. Medium-range deterministic guidance suggests widespread sustained winds between 25-35 mph are expected with gusts between 50-60 mph possible within the coastal terrain. While 25+ mph winds are expected for much of the day, the general ensemble consensus continues to indicate that the peak offshore pressure gradient will occur on Wednesday morning, which may support isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph in terrain favored areas. Relative humidity reductions down to 10-15% are expected, and a few locations may see RH values fall into the upper single digits. As such, some locations may experience periods of extremely critical fire weather conditions Wednesday morning and afternoon. Wind speeds will gradually abate beginning early Thursday morning into early Friday as the upper wave shifts east. Model spread regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions remains high, but critical wind speeds will likely persist within the higher terrain of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Thursday morning. Consequently, 70% risk probabilities have been introduced, and may need to be expanded as confidence in the wind forecast increases. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected along the southern California coast at the start of the extended period before a relatively quiescent period of limited fire weather concerns across the country - largely driven by recent widespread precipitation and cold temperatures across the country. ..D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - Southern California... Critical fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period/12 UTC Wednesday along the southern CA coast. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts an upper ridge building along the West Coast with an embedded shortwave trough propagating southward across the Pacific Northwest. This shortwave will amplify over the next 48 hours as it migrates into the lower CO River Valley. A building surface high over the Great Basin coupled with strengthening offshore mid-level winds will induce a strong, prolonged offshore wind event along the southern CA coast beginning on D2/Tuesday and persisting into D4/Thursday. Medium-range deterministic guidance suggests widespread sustained winds between 25-35 mph are expected with gusts between 50-60 mph possible within the coastal terrain. While 25+ mph winds are expected for much of the day, the general ensemble consensus continues to indicate that the peak offshore pressure gradient will occur on Wednesday morning, which may support isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph in terrain favored areas. Relative humidity reductions down to 10-15% are expected, and a few locations may see RH values fall into the upper single digits. As such, some locations may experience periods of extremely critical fire weather conditions Wednesday morning and afternoon. Wind speeds will gradually abate beginning early Thursday morning into early Friday as the upper wave shifts east. Model spread regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions remains high, but critical wind speeds will likely persist within the higher terrain of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Thursday morning. Consequently, 70% risk probabilities have been introduced, and may need to be expanded as confidence in the wind forecast increases. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected along the southern California coast at the start of the extended period before a relatively quiescent period of limited fire weather concerns across the country - largely driven by recent widespread precipitation and cold temperatures across the country. ..D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - Southern California... Critical fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period/12 UTC Wednesday along the southern CA coast. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts an upper ridge building along the West Coast with an embedded shortwave trough propagating southward across the Pacific Northwest. This shortwave will amplify over the next 48 hours as it migrates into the lower CO River Valley. A building surface high over the Great Basin coupled with strengthening offshore mid-level winds will induce a strong, prolonged offshore wind event along the southern CA coast beginning on D2/Tuesday and persisting into D4/Thursday. Medium-range deterministic guidance suggests widespread sustained winds between 25-35 mph are expected with gusts between 50-60 mph possible within the coastal terrain. While 25+ mph winds are expected for much of the day, the general ensemble consensus continues to indicate that the peak offshore pressure gradient will occur on Wednesday morning, which may support isolated gusts upwards of 70-80 mph in terrain favored areas. Relative humidity reductions down to 10-15% are expected, and a few locations may see RH values fall into the upper single digits. As such, some locations may experience periods of extremely critical fire weather conditions Wednesday morning and afternoon. Wind speeds will gradually abate beginning early Thursday morning into early Friday as the upper wave shifts east. Model spread regarding the cessation of critical fire weather conditions remains high, but critical wind speeds will likely persist within the higher terrain of Los Angeles and Ventura counties through Thursday morning. Consequently, 70% risk probabilities have been introduced, and may need to be expanded as confidence in the wind forecast increases. ..Moore.. 01/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, one or two of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of western Florida through the remainder of this afternoon and early this evening. ...20z Update... Afternoon visible imagery shows the cold front has gradually moved east/southeast through the remainder of south GA and the FL Panhandle. Behind the front, the intruding arctic air mass will scour remaining instability and moisture, ending the thunderstorm risk across much of the Southeast. The Thunder and Marginal Risk areas have been removed behind the front. Across the remainder of the western FL Peninsula, weak inland advection of mid 60s F surface dewpoints and filtered solar heating are supporting modest buoyancy (~ 500 J/kg of MLCAPE) despite poor mid-level lapse rates of 6 C/km. Shallow convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico may move inland and pose some risk for an occasional damaging gust or brief tornado, given moderate mid and low-level shear. However, confidence in sustained strong to severe storms is low, as large-scale forcing is expected to weaken and scant buoyancy will confined near the coast. Will maintain the low-end risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado into the early evening. The severe risk should rapidly end later tonight as the cold front moves inland. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...GA/FL vicinity... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal passage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, one or two of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of western Florida through the remainder of this afternoon and early this evening. ...20z Update... Afternoon visible imagery shows the cold front has gradually moved east/southeast through the remainder of south GA and the FL Panhandle. Behind the front, the intruding arctic air mass will scour remaining instability and moisture, ending the thunderstorm risk across much of the Southeast. The Thunder and Marginal Risk areas have been removed behind the front. Across the remainder of the western FL Peninsula, weak inland advection of mid 60s F surface dewpoints and filtered solar heating are supporting modest buoyancy (~ 500 J/kg of MLCAPE) despite poor mid-level lapse rates of 6 C/km. Shallow convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico may move inland and pose some risk for an occasional damaging gust or brief tornado, given moderate mid and low-level shear. However, confidence in sustained strong to severe storms is low, as large-scale forcing is expected to weaken and scant buoyancy will confined near the coast. Will maintain the low-end risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado into the early evening. The severe risk should rapidly end later tonight as the cold front moves inland. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...GA/FL vicinity... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal passage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, one or two of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of western Florida through the remainder of this afternoon and early this evening. ...20z Update... Afternoon visible imagery shows the cold front has gradually moved east/southeast through the remainder of south GA and the FL Panhandle. Behind the front, the intruding arctic air mass will scour remaining instability and moisture, ending the thunderstorm risk across much of the Southeast. The Thunder and Marginal Risk areas have been removed behind the front. Across the remainder of the western FL Peninsula, weak inland advection of mid 60s F surface dewpoints and filtered solar heating are supporting modest buoyancy (~ 500 J/kg of MLCAPE) despite poor mid-level lapse rates of 6 C/km. Shallow convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico may move inland and pose some risk for an occasional damaging gust or brief tornado, given moderate mid and low-level shear. However, confidence in sustained strong to severe storms is low, as large-scale forcing is expected to weaken and scant buoyancy will confined near the coast. Will maintain the low-end risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado into the early evening. The severe risk should rapidly end later tonight as the cold front moves inland. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...GA/FL vicinity... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal passage. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, one or two of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of western Florida through the remainder of this afternoon and early this evening. ...20z Update... Afternoon visible imagery shows the cold front has gradually moved east/southeast through the remainder of south GA and the FL Panhandle. Behind the front, the intruding arctic air mass will scour remaining instability and moisture, ending the thunderstorm risk across much of the Southeast. The Thunder and Marginal Risk areas have been removed behind the front. Across the remainder of the western FL Peninsula, weak inland advection of mid 60s F surface dewpoints and filtered solar heating are supporting modest buoyancy (~ 500 J/kg of MLCAPE) despite poor mid-level lapse rates of 6 C/km. Shallow convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico may move inland and pose some risk for an occasional damaging gust or brief tornado, given moderate mid and low-level shear. However, confidence in sustained strong to severe storms is low, as large-scale forcing is expected to weaken and scant buoyancy will confined near the coast. Will maintain the low-end risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado into the early evening. The severe risk should rapidly end later tonight as the cold front moves inland. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...GA/FL vicinity... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal passage. Read more