Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm activity is not expected the remainder of this evening into early Wednesday, and no changes are needed with the 01z update. ..Leitman.. 01/08/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 7 23:57:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 7 23:57:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited to the southern California coast through the ended period, especially towards the start of the period (D3/Thursday), though fire concerns may re-emerge by the early to middle of next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of snow cover, precipitation chances, and cold temperatures through the next week should limit additional fire weather concerns. ...D3/Thursday and D7/Tue - southern CA coast... The ongoing offshore flow event along the southern CA coast is expected to be waning by early D3/Thursday as upper-level winds begin to subside, though some areas may continue to see elevated fire weather conditions. Recent medium and long-range guidance continue to suggest a resurgence of mid-level winds is possible by late afternoon as a shortwave trough (currently approaching the apex of a highly amplified upper ridged over the West Coast/western Canada) ejects into the Intermountain West through the day. This will result in a period of strengthening offshore winds, likely back up to critical thresholds within the lee of the coastal terrain. Given the prolonged nature of the current offshore flow event, minimal moisture recovery is expected, so RH reductions back into the teens appear likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Recent runs of extended-range global ensembles have been trending towards the development of another amplified upper trough over southern CA into the lower CO River Valley by around D7/Tue. This may establish another offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. Spread among ensemble means and deterministic solutions remains high at this range and limits confidence in details, but this time period will continue to be monitored for additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited to the southern California coast through the ended period, especially towards the start of the period (D3/Thursday), though fire concerns may re-emerge by the early to middle of next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of snow cover, precipitation chances, and cold temperatures through the next week should limit additional fire weather concerns. ...D3/Thursday and D7/Tue - southern CA coast... The ongoing offshore flow event along the southern CA coast is expected to be waning by early D3/Thursday as upper-level winds begin to subside, though some areas may continue to see elevated fire weather conditions. Recent medium and long-range guidance continue to suggest a resurgence of mid-level winds is possible by late afternoon as a shortwave trough (currently approaching the apex of a highly amplified upper ridged over the West Coast/western Canada) ejects into the Intermountain West through the day. This will result in a period of strengthening offshore winds, likely back up to critical thresholds within the lee of the coastal terrain. Given the prolonged nature of the current offshore flow event, minimal moisture recovery is expected, so RH reductions back into the teens appear likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Recent runs of extended-range global ensembles have been trending towards the development of another amplified upper trough over southern CA into the lower CO River Valley by around D7/Tue. This may establish another offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. Spread among ensemble means and deterministic solutions remains high at this range and limits confidence in details, but this time period will continue to be monitored for additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited to the southern California coast through the ended period, especially towards the start of the period (D3/Thursday), though fire concerns may re-emerge by the early to middle of next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of snow cover, precipitation chances, and cold temperatures through the next week should limit additional fire weather concerns. ...D3/Thursday and D7/Tue - southern CA coast... The ongoing offshore flow event along the southern CA coast is expected to be waning by early D3/Thursday as upper-level winds begin to subside, though some areas may continue to see elevated fire weather conditions. Recent medium and long-range guidance continue to suggest a resurgence of mid-level winds is possible by late afternoon as a shortwave trough (currently approaching the apex of a highly amplified upper ridged over the West Coast/western Canada) ejects into the Intermountain West through the day. This will result in a period of strengthening offshore winds, likely back up to critical thresholds within the lee of the coastal terrain. Given the prolonged nature of the current offshore flow event, minimal moisture recovery is expected, so RH reductions back into the teens appear likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Recent runs of extended-range global ensembles have been trending towards the development of another amplified upper trough over southern CA into the lower CO River Valley by around D7/Tue. This may establish another offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. Spread among ensemble means and deterministic solutions remains high at this range and limits confidence in details, but this time period will continue to be monitored for additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will continue to be limited to the southern California coast through the ended period, especially towards the start of the period (D3/Thursday), though fire concerns may re-emerge by the early to middle of next week. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of snow cover, precipitation chances, and cold temperatures through the next week should limit additional fire weather concerns. ...D3/Thursday and D7/Tue - southern CA coast... The ongoing offshore flow event along the southern CA coast is expected to be waning by early D3/Thursday as upper-level winds begin to subside, though some areas may continue to see elevated fire weather conditions. Recent medium and long-range guidance continue to suggest a resurgence of mid-level winds is possible by late afternoon as a shortwave trough (currently approaching the apex of a highly amplified upper ridged over the West Coast/western Canada) ejects into the Intermountain West through the day. This will result in a period of strengthening offshore winds, likely back up to critical thresholds within the lee of the coastal terrain. Given the prolonged nature of the current offshore flow event, minimal moisture recovery is expected, so RH reductions back into the teens appear likely and will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Recent runs of extended-range global ensembles have been trending towards the development of another amplified upper trough over southern CA into the lower CO River Valley by around D7/Tue. This may establish another offshore flow regime along the southern CA coast with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. Spread among ensemble means and deterministic solutions remains high at this range and limits confidence in details, but this time period will continue to be monitored for additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorm potential over the CONUS is low through tonight. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorm potential over the CONUS is low through tonight. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorm potential over the CONUS is low through tonight. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorm potential over the CONUS is low through tonight. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorm potential over the CONUS is low through tonight. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorm potential over the CONUS is low through tonight. See the prior discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, a midlevel vorticity maximum will phase with steep midlevel lapse rates over southwestern AZ today. While weak buoyancy will develop atop a dry low-level air mass (inverted-V-type sounding), convection should remain too weak for lightning owing to the limited moisture. Elsewhere, a cold/dry air mass will preclude thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made based on trends in recent guidance. Confidence remains very high in the continuation of critical fire weather conditions for much of Wednesday. Recent HREF and other high-resolution guidance continues to suggest the highest probability for sustained extremely critical conditions remains across Ventura to western Los Angeles counties where RH values should drop into the 5-10% range coincident with 30-40 mph sustained winds for a few hours Wednesday morning and afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional forecast details. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff upper low pressure system within the lower Colorado River Valley into the Gulf of California will slowly continue to sag southeastward on Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet will remain favorably oriented with offshore winds in southern California through mid-afternoon. A strong surface high, though weakening through the day, should remain sufficiently intense to drive strong offshore surface winds across southern California. ...Southern California... Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph (with significant wind gusts within the terrain-favored areas) are expected during the morning into at least the early afternoon. While some locations may experience some RH recovery overnight, RH will begin to drop to around 10-15% as temperatures rise during the day. Given the intensity of the winds, extreme fire behavior appears likely should ignitions occur. Extremely critical fire weather is most likely for portion of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With high pressure extending farther south than on Monday, critical fire weather will extend to the San Diego vicinity as well. Even though the upper-level winds will weaken along with the offshore gradient, elevated to critical fire weather is expected to continue into Thursday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made based on trends in recent guidance. Confidence remains very high in the continuation of critical fire weather conditions for much of Wednesday. Recent HREF and other high-resolution guidance continues to suggest the highest probability for sustained extremely critical conditions remains across Ventura to western Los Angeles counties where RH values should drop into the 5-10% range coincident with 30-40 mph sustained winds for a few hours Wednesday morning and afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional forecast details. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff upper low pressure system within the lower Colorado River Valley into the Gulf of California will slowly continue to sag southeastward on Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet will remain favorably oriented with offshore winds in southern California through mid-afternoon. A strong surface high, though weakening through the day, should remain sufficiently intense to drive strong offshore surface winds across southern California. ...Southern California... Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph (with significant wind gusts within the terrain-favored areas) are expected during the morning into at least the early afternoon. While some locations may experience some RH recovery overnight, RH will begin to drop to around 10-15% as temperatures rise during the day. Given the intensity of the winds, extreme fire behavior appears likely should ignitions occur. Extremely critical fire weather is most likely for portion of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With high pressure extending farther south than on Monday, critical fire weather will extend to the San Diego vicinity as well. Even though the upper-level winds will weaken along with the offshore gradient, elevated to critical fire weather is expected to continue into Thursday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made based on trends in recent guidance. Confidence remains very high in the continuation of critical fire weather conditions for much of Wednesday. Recent HREF and other high-resolution guidance continues to suggest the highest probability for sustained extremely critical conditions remains across Ventura to western Los Angeles counties where RH values should drop into the 5-10% range coincident with 30-40 mph sustained winds for a few hours Wednesday morning and afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional forecast details. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff upper low pressure system within the lower Colorado River Valley into the Gulf of California will slowly continue to sag southeastward on Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet will remain favorably oriented with offshore winds in southern California through mid-afternoon. A strong surface high, though weakening through the day, should remain sufficiently intense to drive strong offshore surface winds across southern California. ...Southern California... Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph (with significant wind gusts within the terrain-favored areas) are expected during the morning into at least the early afternoon. While some locations may experience some RH recovery overnight, RH will begin to drop to around 10-15% as temperatures rise during the day. Given the intensity of the winds, extreme fire behavior appears likely should ignitions occur. Extremely critical fire weather is most likely for portion of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With high pressure extending farther south than on Monday, critical fire weather will extend to the San Diego vicinity as well. Even though the upper-level winds will weaken along with the offshore gradient, elevated to critical fire weather is expected to continue into Thursday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made based on trends in recent guidance. Confidence remains very high in the continuation of critical fire weather conditions for much of Wednesday. Recent HREF and other high-resolution guidance continues to suggest the highest probability for sustained extremely critical conditions remains across Ventura to western Los Angeles counties where RH values should drop into the 5-10% range coincident with 30-40 mph sustained winds for a few hours Wednesday morning and afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional forecast details. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff upper low pressure system within the lower Colorado River Valley into the Gulf of California will slowly continue to sag southeastward on Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet will remain favorably oriented with offshore winds in southern California through mid-afternoon. A strong surface high, though weakening through the day, should remain sufficiently intense to drive strong offshore surface winds across southern California. ...Southern California... Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph (with significant wind gusts within the terrain-favored areas) are expected during the morning into at least the early afternoon. While some locations may experience some RH recovery overnight, RH will begin to drop to around 10-15% as temperatures rise during the day. Given the intensity of the winds, extreme fire behavior appears likely should ignitions occur. Extremely critical fire weather is most likely for portion of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With high pressure extending farther south than on Monday, critical fire weather will extend to the San Diego vicinity as well. Even though the upper-level winds will weaken along with the offshore gradient, elevated to critical fire weather is expected to continue into Thursday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made based on trends in recent guidance. Confidence remains very high in the continuation of critical fire weather conditions for much of Wednesday. Recent HREF and other high-resolution guidance continues to suggest the highest probability for sustained extremely critical conditions remains across Ventura to western Los Angeles counties where RH values should drop into the 5-10% range coincident with 30-40 mph sustained winds for a few hours Wednesday morning and afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional forecast details. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff upper low pressure system within the lower Colorado River Valley into the Gulf of California will slowly continue to sag southeastward on Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet will remain favorably oriented with offshore winds in southern California through mid-afternoon. A strong surface high, though weakening through the day, should remain sufficiently intense to drive strong offshore surface winds across southern California. ...Southern California... Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph (with significant wind gusts within the terrain-favored areas) are expected during the morning into at least the early afternoon. While some locations may experience some RH recovery overnight, RH will begin to drop to around 10-15% as temperatures rise during the day. Given the intensity of the winds, extreme fire behavior appears likely should ignitions occur. Extremely critical fire weather is most likely for portion of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With high pressure extending farther south than on Monday, critical fire weather will extend to the San Diego vicinity as well. Even though the upper-level winds will weaken along with the offshore gradient, elevated to critical fire weather is expected to continue into Thursday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made based on trends in recent guidance. Confidence remains very high in the continuation of critical fire weather conditions for much of Wednesday. Recent HREF and other high-resolution guidance continues to suggest the highest probability for sustained extremely critical conditions remains across Ventura to western Los Angeles counties where RH values should drop into the 5-10% range coincident with 30-40 mph sustained winds for a few hours Wednesday morning and afternoon. See the previous discussion below for additional forecast details. ..Moore.. 01/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A cutoff upper low pressure system within the lower Colorado River Valley into the Gulf of California will slowly continue to sag southeastward on Wednesday. A strong mid-level jet will remain favorably oriented with offshore winds in southern California through mid-afternoon. A strong surface high, though weakening through the day, should remain sufficiently intense to drive strong offshore surface winds across southern California. ...Southern California... Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph (with significant wind gusts within the terrain-favored areas) are expected during the morning into at least the early afternoon. While some locations may experience some RH recovery overnight, RH will begin to drop to around 10-15% as temperatures rise during the day. Given the intensity of the winds, extreme fire behavior appears likely should ignitions occur. Extremely critical fire weather is most likely for portion of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. With high pressure extending farther south than on Monday, critical fire weather will extend to the San Diego vicinity as well. Even though the upper-level winds will weaken along with the offshore gradient, elevated to critical fire weather is expected to continue into Thursday morning. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the western Gulf Coast States on Thursday into Thursday night. ...TX/LA... A northern-stream shortwave impulse should phase with the closed mid/upper low in the Gulf of CA vicinity, yielding a longwave trough from south-central Canada to northwest Mexico by Thursday night. Downstream low-level warm-moist advection will yield increasingly widespread precipitation across the south-central states on Thursday as a weak surface cyclone becomes established off the western Gulf Coast. Despite ample precipitation coverage, thunder potential appears slim. Very isolated thunder from parcels rooted near 700 mb may linger Thursday morning in the central TX vicinity. Thereafter, scant elevated buoyancy should become confined to the coastal plain, initially across Deep South TX and then shifting north-northeast through the rest of the period. Relatively warm upper-level temperatures in conjunction with weakening mid-level lapse rates may preclude charge separation inland. Some thunder potential is expected near the coast, with greater coverage over the adjacent offshore waters. ..Grams.. 01/07/2025 Read more