Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection across the CONUS through the period. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Southeast LA to the FL Panhandle... A shallow/thin band of enhanced showers is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday across the southeast LA vicinity. The northeast extent of scant buoyancy, MUCAPE near 100 J/kg, should spread across the mouth of the MS River into a portion of the north-central Gulf in conjunction with a weak surface cyclone tracking east along the coast. With an elongated, positive-tilt longwave trough displaced to the north/west, mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and upper-level temperatures will be relatively warm. Thus, potential for charge separation appears nearly negligible. Still, with a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points impinging on the coast and offshore waters, mixing of fast low-level flow may yield strong gusts with the shallow convective line. This line should eventually decay in the northeast Gulf vicinity by evening. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Southeast LA to the FL Panhandle... A shallow/thin band of enhanced showers is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday across the southeast LA vicinity. The northeast extent of scant buoyancy, MUCAPE near 100 J/kg, should spread across the mouth of the MS River into a portion of the north-central Gulf in conjunction with a weak surface cyclone tracking east along the coast. With an elongated, positive-tilt longwave trough displaced to the north/west, mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and upper-level temperatures will be relatively warm. Thus, potential for charge separation appears nearly negligible. Still, with a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points impinging on the coast and offshore waters, mixing of fast low-level flow may yield strong gusts with the shallow convective line. This line should eventually decay in the northeast Gulf vicinity by evening. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Southeast LA to the FL Panhandle... A shallow/thin band of enhanced showers is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday across the southeast LA vicinity. The northeast extent of scant buoyancy, MUCAPE near 100 J/kg, should spread across the mouth of the MS River into a portion of the north-central Gulf in conjunction with a weak surface cyclone tracking east along the coast. With an elongated, positive-tilt longwave trough displaced to the north/west, mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and upper-level temperatures will be relatively warm. Thus, potential for charge separation appears nearly negligible. Still, with a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points impinging on the coast and offshore waters, mixing of fast low-level flow may yield strong gusts with the shallow convective line. This line should eventually decay in the northeast Gulf vicinity by evening. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Southeast LA to the FL Panhandle... A shallow/thin band of enhanced showers is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday across the southeast LA vicinity. The northeast extent of scant buoyancy, MUCAPE near 100 J/kg, should spread across the mouth of the MS River into a portion of the north-central Gulf in conjunction with a weak surface cyclone tracking east along the coast. With an elongated, positive-tilt longwave trough displaced to the north/west, mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and upper-level temperatures will be relatively warm. Thus, potential for charge separation appears nearly negligible. Still, with a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points impinging on the coast and offshore waters, mixing of fast low-level flow may yield strong gusts with the shallow convective line. This line should eventually decay in the northeast Gulf vicinity by evening. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Southeast LA to the FL Panhandle... A shallow/thin band of enhanced showers is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday across the southeast LA vicinity. The northeast extent of scant buoyancy, MUCAPE near 100 J/kg, should spread across the mouth of the MS River into a portion of the north-central Gulf in conjunction with a weak surface cyclone tracking east along the coast. With an elongated, positive-tilt longwave trough displaced to the north/west, mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and upper-level temperatures will be relatively warm. Thus, potential for charge separation appears nearly negligible. Still, with a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points impinging on the coast and offshore waters, mixing of fast low-level flow may yield strong gusts with the shallow convective line. This line should eventually decay in the northeast Gulf vicinity by evening. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Southeast LA to the FL Panhandle... A shallow/thin band of enhanced showers is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday across the southeast LA vicinity. The northeast extent of scant buoyancy, MUCAPE near 100 J/kg, should spread across the mouth of the MS River into a portion of the north-central Gulf in conjunction with a weak surface cyclone tracking east along the coast. With an elongated, positive-tilt longwave trough displaced to the north/west, mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and upper-level temperatures will be relatively warm. Thus, potential for charge separation appears nearly negligible. Still, with a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points impinging on the coast and offshore waters, mixing of fast low-level flow may yield strong gusts with the shallow convective line. This line should eventually decay in the northeast Gulf vicinity by evening. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Southeast LA to the FL Panhandle... A shallow/thin band of enhanced showers is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday across the southeast LA vicinity. The northeast extent of scant buoyancy, MUCAPE near 100 J/kg, should spread across the mouth of the MS River into a portion of the north-central Gulf in conjunction with a weak surface cyclone tracking east along the coast. With an elongated, positive-tilt longwave trough displaced to the north/west, mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and upper-level temperatures will be relatively warm. Thus, potential for charge separation appears nearly negligible. Still, with a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points impinging on the coast and offshore waters, mixing of fast low-level flow may yield strong gusts with the shallow convective line. This line should eventually decay in the northeast Gulf vicinity by evening. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Southeast LA to the FL Panhandle... A shallow/thin band of enhanced showers is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Friday across the southeast LA vicinity. The northeast extent of scant buoyancy, MUCAPE near 100 J/kg, should spread across the mouth of the MS River into a portion of the north-central Gulf in conjunction with a weak surface cyclone tracking east along the coast. With an elongated, positive-tilt longwave trough displaced to the north/west, mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and upper-level temperatures will be relatively warm. Thus, potential for charge separation appears nearly negligible. Still, with a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points impinging on the coast and offshore waters, mixing of fast low-level flow may yield strong gusts with the shallow convective line. This line should eventually decay in the northeast Gulf vicinity by evening. ..Grams.. 01/09/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 9 17:08:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. ..Weinman.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. ..Weinman.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. ..Weinman.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. ..Weinman.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. ..Weinman.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. ..Weinman.. 01/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region. ..Weinman.. 01/09/2025 Read more