Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible near the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend coastal vicinity on Monday. ...Synopsis... A few thunderstorms may be ongoing near the mouth of the MS River southward into the central Gulf of Mexico Monday morning. This activity will be aided by a warm advection regime ahead of an east/southeast developing surface low and cold front amid moderate mid/upper level southwesterly flow. Midlevel lapse rates and temperatures will remain modest, but sufficient to support meager elevated instability. Most thunderstorm activity will remain offshore, but a few thunderstorms may approach the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend coastal vicinity during the afternoon. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave embedded in the larger-scale upper trough over the central U.S. will move from northern Mexico into the Southeast on Sunday. This will allow for weak surface low development over the northwest Gulf, offshore from LA, during the overnight hours. Low-level warm advection ahead of these feature will allow for modest boundary-layer moisture to impinge on the north-central Gulf Coast late in the period. Modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated vertical profile will support meager elevated instability, supporting a few thunderstorms approaching the southeast LA coast early Monday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave embedded in the larger-scale upper trough over the central U.S. will move from northern Mexico into the Southeast on Sunday. This will allow for weak surface low development over the northwest Gulf, offshore from LA, during the overnight hours. Low-level warm advection ahead of these feature will allow for modest boundary-layer moisture to impinge on the north-central Gulf Coast late in the period. Modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated vertical profile will support meager elevated instability, supporting a few thunderstorms approaching the southeast LA coast early Monday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave embedded in the larger-scale upper trough over the central U.S. will move from northern Mexico into the Southeast on Sunday. This will allow for weak surface low development over the northwest Gulf, offshore from LA, during the overnight hours. Low-level warm advection ahead of these feature will allow for modest boundary-layer moisture to impinge on the north-central Gulf Coast late in the period. Modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated vertical profile will support meager elevated instability, supporting a few thunderstorms approaching the southeast LA coast early Monday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave embedded in the larger-scale upper trough over the central U.S. will move from northern Mexico into the Southeast on Sunday. This will allow for weak surface low development over the northwest Gulf, offshore from LA, during the overnight hours. Low-level warm advection ahead of these feature will allow for modest boundary-layer moisture to impinge on the north-central Gulf Coast late in the period. Modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated vertical profile will support meager elevated instability, supporting a few thunderstorms approaching the southeast LA coast early Monday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible near coastal southeast Louisiana during the early morning Monday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave embedded in the larger-scale upper trough over the central U.S. will move from northern Mexico into the Southeast on Sunday. This will allow for weak surface low development over the northwest Gulf, offshore from LA, during the overnight hours. Low-level warm advection ahead of these feature will allow for modest boundary-layer moisture to impinge on the north-central Gulf Coast late in the period. Modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated vertical profile will support meager elevated instability, supporting a few thunderstorms approaching the southeast LA coast early Monday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Sunday morning. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist today, with high pressure over much of the CONUS. An upper trough will move out the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with a surface low and cold front pushing well offshore. Behind this front, offshore flow over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic will maintain stable conditions. Elsewhere, a large upper trough will drop into the Western CONUS, with cooling aloft steepening lapse rates. Little to no convective instability is forecast, and as such thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Sunday morning. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist today, with high pressure over much of the CONUS. An upper trough will move out the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with a surface low and cold front pushing well offshore. Behind this front, offshore flow over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic will maintain stable conditions. Elsewhere, a large upper trough will drop into the Western CONUS, with cooling aloft steepening lapse rates. Little to no convective instability is forecast, and as such thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Sunday morning. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist today, with high pressure over much of the CONUS. An upper trough will move out the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with a surface low and cold front pushing well offshore. Behind this front, offshore flow over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic will maintain stable conditions. Elsewhere, a large upper trough will drop into the Western CONUS, with cooling aloft steepening lapse rates. Little to no convective instability is forecast, and as such thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Sunday morning. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist today, with high pressure over much of the CONUS. An upper trough will move out the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with a surface low and cold front pushing well offshore. Behind this front, offshore flow over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic will maintain stable conditions. Elsewhere, a large upper trough will drop into the Western CONUS, with cooling aloft steepening lapse rates. Little to no convective instability is forecast, and as such thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Sunday morning. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist today, with high pressure over much of the CONUS. An upper trough will move out the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with a surface low and cold front pushing well offshore. Behind this front, offshore flow over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic will maintain stable conditions. Elsewhere, a large upper trough will drop into the Western CONUS, with cooling aloft steepening lapse rates. Little to no convective instability is forecast, and as such thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through Sunday morning. ...Synopsis... A stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential will exist today, with high pressure over much of the CONUS. An upper trough will move out the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, with a surface low and cold front pushing well offshore. Behind this front, offshore flow over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic will maintain stable conditions. Elsewhere, a large upper trough will drop into the Western CONUS, with cooling aloft steepening lapse rates. Little to no convective instability is forecast, and as such thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Jewell.. 01/11/2025 Read more

MD 0034 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0034 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0927 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...central and eastern portions of the Carolinas Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 110327Z - 110600Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain will continue into tonight. The heaviest ice accretion rates will be in the eastern Carolinas for the next few hours. DISCUSSION...03Z mesoanalysis depicts strong 925-850 mb WAA advection overspreading the Carolinas, likely supporting above-freezing temperatures in this layer, while surface temperatures remain at or just below freezing. The aforementioned thermodynamic vertical profile supports continued freezing rain potential, as demonstrated by surface observations on a widespread basis. The primary band of heavier precipitation (and associated higher ice accretion rates) is rapidly shifting eastward across the eastern Carolinas. As such, .06 in/3 h ice accretion rates are most likely closer to the coast over the next few hours. Still, MRMS mosaic radar imagery shows continued lighter rainfall (likely freezing) still ongoing as far west as the immediate lee of the Appalachians. As such, at least light freezing rain should continue for several more hours. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 33967767 33837903 33878082 34378200 35048216 35508176 36107965 36277778 36167691 35617616 35157631 34547688 33967767 Read more

MD 0033 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0033 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0534 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and northern South Carolina into central North Carolina Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 102334Z - 110330Z SUMMARY...Heavier freezing rain rates will continue to spread into northern South Carolina into central North Carolina through the evening hours. .06 inch/3 hour rates are expected. DISCUSSION...Low-level warm-air advection continues to intensify across GA into SC ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. While a wintry mix is ongoing across central portions of NC into SC, the continued WAA in the 850-700 mb layer will encourage freezing rain to become the predominant mode of wintry precipitation into the evening hours, as evident via 22Z RAP forecast soundings and 23Z mesoanalysis. Surface observations depict an increase in freezing rain already underway across northern SC into central NC, with heavier ice accretion rates likely this evening. Furthermore, high-resolution model guidance also shows a high likelihood of .06 in/3 h ice accretion rates, especially in the 00-06Z time frame. ..Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34298312 34588309 34978262 35538191 36028018 36007895 35607866 34807927 34247988 33798058 33638124 33528175 33498235 33548272 34298312 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of tonight. Little to no thunderstorm activity is forecast across the CONUS through tonight. A cold front will continue to move across northern FL and southern GA this evening, supporting low-topped convection. Minimal SBCAPE will exist over parts of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front, and a few lightning flashes cannot be ruled out there. Over land, little to no elevated instability is forecast, and thunderstorm chances appear minimal through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of tonight. Little to no thunderstorm activity is forecast across the CONUS through tonight. A cold front will continue to move across northern FL and southern GA this evening, supporting low-topped convection. Minimal SBCAPE will exist over parts of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front, and a few lightning flashes cannot be ruled out there. Over land, little to no elevated instability is forecast, and thunderstorm chances appear minimal through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of tonight. Little to no thunderstorm activity is forecast across the CONUS through tonight. A cold front will continue to move across northern FL and southern GA this evening, supporting low-topped convection. Minimal SBCAPE will exist over parts of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front, and a few lightning flashes cannot be ruled out there. Over land, little to no elevated instability is forecast, and thunderstorm chances appear minimal through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through the remainder of tonight. Little to no thunderstorm activity is forecast across the CONUS through tonight. A cold front will continue to move across northern FL and southern GA this evening, supporting low-topped convection. Minimal SBCAPE will exist over parts of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front, and a few lightning flashes cannot be ruled out there. Over land, little to no elevated instability is forecast, and thunderstorm chances appear minimal through the period. ..Jewell.. 01/11/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 10 23:57:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0033 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0033 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0534 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and northern South Carolina into central North Carolina Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 102334Z - 110330Z SUMMARY...Heavier freezing rain rates will continue to spread into northern South Carolina into central North Carolina through the evening hours. .06 inch/3 hour rates are expected. DISCUSSION...Low-level warm-air advection continues to intensify across GA into SC ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. While a wintry mix is ongoing across central portions of NC into SC, the continued WAA in the 850-700 mb layer will encourage freezing rain to become the predominant mode of wintry precipitation into the evening hours, as evident via 22Z RAP forecast soundings and 23Z mesoanalysis. Surface observations depict an increase in freezing rain already underway across northern SC into central NC, with heavier ice accretion rates likely this evening. Furthermore, high-resolution model guidance also shows a high likelihood of .06 in/3 h ice accretion rates, especially in the 00-06Z time frame. ..Squitieri.. 01/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 34298312 34588309 34978262 35538191 36028018 36007895 35607866 34807927 34247988 33798058 33638124 33528175 33498235 33548272 34298312 Read more