Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across most of the U.S. on Monday. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two may approach the north-central/northeast Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Monday. A weak surface low/trough is forecast to move across the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front remaining offshore the central and northeast Gulf coast. This will keep deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. However, modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated thermodynamic profile in the midlevel will support minor elevated instability (generally less than 150 J/kg) from the mouth of the MS River eastward toward the FL Big Bend vicinity. While most thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore, a few thunderstorms may approach the coast or near-shore waters. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across most of the U.S. on Monday. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two may approach the north-central/northeast Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Monday. A weak surface low/trough is forecast to move across the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front remaining offshore the central and northeast Gulf coast. This will keep deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. However, modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated thermodynamic profile in the midlevel will support minor elevated instability (generally less than 150 J/kg) from the mouth of the MS River eastward toward the FL Big Bend vicinity. While most thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore, a few thunderstorms may approach the coast or near-shore waters. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across most of the U.S. on Monday. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two may approach the north-central/northeast Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Monday. A weak surface low/trough is forecast to move across the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front remaining offshore the central and northeast Gulf coast. This will keep deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. However, modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated thermodynamic profile in the midlevel will support minor elevated instability (generally less than 150 J/kg) from the mouth of the MS River eastward toward the FL Big Bend vicinity. While most thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore, a few thunderstorms may approach the coast or near-shore waters. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across most of the U.S. on Monday. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two may approach the north-central/northeast Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will persist across much of the eastern half of the CONUS on Monday. A weak surface low/trough is forecast to move across the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a warm front remaining offshore the central and northeast Gulf coast. This will keep deeper boundary-layer moisture offshore. However, modest midlevel lapse rates amid a saturated thermodynamic profile in the midlevel will support minor elevated instability (generally less than 150 J/kg) from the mouth of the MS River eastward toward the FL Big Bend vicinity. While most thunderstorm activity is expected to remain offshore, a few thunderstorms may approach the coast or near-shore waters. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorms are possible near the southeastern Louisiana coastal areas tonight. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across the nation through the period. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will drop south out of Manitoba and into northern MN today, with a large upper trough extending southwestward across much of the western and central CONUS. To the east, strengthening west to southwest flow will develop over much of the area east of the MS River. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the upper Great Lakes, while high pressure remains over the Southeast. A reinforcing cool/stable air mass will spread south across the Plains and eventually into the western Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with a weak low ahead of this influx from the west-central into the northern GOM. ...North-Central Gulf Coast... Low-level moisture will increase in quality throughout the period over the GOM, with a warm front approaching the offshore waters of LA. Lift near this boundary will result in clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. However, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE may develop late tonight near the coast, as theta-e advection occurs atop the stable boundary layer. Forecast soundings indicate saturated profiles, with no SBCAPE over land. As such, while elevated convection will be possible within the larger precipitation shield, severe storms are unlikely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorms are possible near the southeastern Louisiana coastal areas tonight. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across the nation through the period. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will drop south out of Manitoba and into northern MN today, with a large upper trough extending southwestward across much of the western and central CONUS. To the east, strengthening west to southwest flow will develop over much of the area east of the MS River. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the upper Great Lakes, while high pressure remains over the Southeast. A reinforcing cool/stable air mass will spread south across the Plains and eventually into the western Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with a weak low ahead of this influx from the west-central into the northern GOM. ...North-Central Gulf Coast... Low-level moisture will increase in quality throughout the period over the GOM, with a warm front approaching the offshore waters of LA. Lift near this boundary will result in clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. However, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE may develop late tonight near the coast, as theta-e advection occurs atop the stable boundary layer. Forecast soundings indicate saturated profiles, with no SBCAPE over land. As such, while elevated convection will be possible within the larger precipitation shield, severe storms are unlikely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorms are possible near the southeastern Louisiana coastal areas tonight. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across the nation through the period. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will drop south out of Manitoba and into northern MN today, with a large upper trough extending southwestward across much of the western and central CONUS. To the east, strengthening west to southwest flow will develop over much of the area east of the MS River. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the upper Great Lakes, while high pressure remains over the Southeast. A reinforcing cool/stable air mass will spread south across the Plains and eventually into the western Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with a weak low ahead of this influx from the west-central into the northern GOM. ...North-Central Gulf Coast... Low-level moisture will increase in quality throughout the period over the GOM, with a warm front approaching the offshore waters of LA. Lift near this boundary will result in clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. However, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE may develop late tonight near the coast, as theta-e advection occurs atop the stable boundary layer. Forecast soundings indicate saturated profiles, with no SBCAPE over land. As such, while elevated convection will be possible within the larger precipitation shield, severe storms are unlikely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorms are possible near the southeastern Louisiana coastal areas tonight. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across the nation through the period. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will drop south out of Manitoba and into northern MN today, with a large upper trough extending southwestward across much of the western and central CONUS. To the east, strengthening west to southwest flow will develop over much of the area east of the MS River. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the upper Great Lakes, while high pressure remains over the Southeast. A reinforcing cool/stable air mass will spread south across the Plains and eventually into the western Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with a weak low ahead of this influx from the west-central into the northern GOM. ...North-Central Gulf Coast... Low-level moisture will increase in quality throughout the period over the GOM, with a warm front approaching the offshore waters of LA. Lift near this boundary will result in clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. However, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE may develop late tonight near the coast, as theta-e advection occurs atop the stable boundary layer. Forecast soundings indicate saturated profiles, with no SBCAPE over land. As such, while elevated convection will be possible within the larger precipitation shield, severe storms are unlikely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Weak thunderstorms are possible near the southeastern Louisiana coastal areas tonight. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms will remain negligible across the nation through the period. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will drop south out of Manitoba and into northern MN today, with a large upper trough extending southwestward across much of the western and central CONUS. To the east, strengthening west to southwest flow will develop over much of the area east of the MS River. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the upper Great Lakes, while high pressure remains over the Southeast. A reinforcing cool/stable air mass will spread south across the Plains and eventually into the western Gulf of Mexico (GOM), with a weak low ahead of this influx from the west-central into the northern GOM. ...North-Central Gulf Coast... Low-level moisture will increase in quality throughout the period over the GOM, with a warm front approaching the offshore waters of LA. Lift near this boundary will result in clusters of thunderstorms well offshore. However, a few hundred J/kg of elevated MUCAPE may develop late tonight near the coast, as theta-e advection occurs atop the stable boundary layer. Forecast soundings indicate saturated profiles, with no SBCAPE over land. As such, while elevated convection will be possible within the larger precipitation shield, severe storms are unlikely. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A stable pattern will persist across the CONUS through tonight, with a large area of high pressure over the Southeast and much of the West. Little if any instability is forecast over the West even with cold temperatures aloft beneath an amplifying upper trough, and as such, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A stable pattern will persist across the CONUS through tonight, with a large area of high pressure over the Southeast and much of the West. Little if any instability is forecast over the West even with cold temperatures aloft beneath an amplifying upper trough, and as such, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A stable pattern will persist across the CONUS through tonight, with a large area of high pressure over the Southeast and much of the West. Little if any instability is forecast over the West even with cold temperatures aloft beneath an amplifying upper trough, and as such, thunderstorms remain unlikely. ..Jewell.. 01/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Strong offshore winds will likely support a longer duration fire-weather event across portions of southern CA late this weekend through midweek next week. Widespread, potentially high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to develop early in the week as an upper low and strong easterly mid-level flow develop off the Pacific Coast. ...Southern CA... Periods of moderate offshore winds over much of southern CA are forecast to gradually weaken late this weekend and heading into the new work week. However, this reprieve will be short lived, as a large upper trough and strong mid-level flow intensify off the Pacific Coast. By midday D3/Monday, high pressure over the Great Basin will strengthen as the upper trough over the Pacific cuts off. Some model uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the cutoff low and the associated belt of stronger easterly flow. While various solutions keep the stronger flow aloft north of the LA Basin, enough upper-air support will likely be in place along with the strong low-level offshore gradients. Downslope winds and low humidity should begin to rebound late D3/Monday afternoon and steadily intensify overnight into D4/Tuesday. This will set the stage for another period of dangerous and potentially high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the LA Basin and southern CA Mountains. Offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying into early D4/Tuesday as offshore gradients peak around 8-10 mb. In combination with 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass. Single digit RH values are expected coincident with the strong winds. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely, with the potential for higher-end critical conditions across parts of the western LA Basin and mountains of southern CA D4/Tuesday. Strong winds should continue into D5/Wed before the upper low gradually moves offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors. Still, localized elevated to near-critical conditions may persist across the western LA Basin and Santa Barbra mountains as late as D6/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Strong offshore winds will likely support a longer duration fire-weather event across portions of southern CA late this weekend through midweek next week. Widespread, potentially high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to develop early in the week as an upper low and strong easterly mid-level flow develop off the Pacific Coast. ...Southern CA... Periods of moderate offshore winds over much of southern CA are forecast to gradually weaken late this weekend and heading into the new work week. However, this reprieve will be short lived, as a large upper trough and strong mid-level flow intensify off the Pacific Coast. By midday D3/Monday, high pressure over the Great Basin will strengthen as the upper trough over the Pacific cuts off. Some model uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the cutoff low and the associated belt of stronger easterly flow. While various solutions keep the stronger flow aloft north of the LA Basin, enough upper-air support will likely be in place along with the strong low-level offshore gradients. Downslope winds and low humidity should begin to rebound late D3/Monday afternoon and steadily intensify overnight into D4/Tuesday. This will set the stage for another period of dangerous and potentially high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the LA Basin and southern CA Mountains. Offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying into early D4/Tuesday as offshore gradients peak around 8-10 mb. In combination with 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass. Single digit RH values are expected coincident with the strong winds. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely, with the potential for higher-end critical conditions across parts of the western LA Basin and mountains of southern CA D4/Tuesday. Strong winds should continue into D5/Wed before the upper low gradually moves offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors. Still, localized elevated to near-critical conditions may persist across the western LA Basin and Santa Barbra mountains as late as D6/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Strong offshore winds will likely support a longer duration fire-weather event across portions of southern CA late this weekend through midweek next week. Widespread, potentially high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to develop early in the week as an upper low and strong easterly mid-level flow develop off the Pacific Coast. ...Southern CA... Periods of moderate offshore winds over much of southern CA are forecast to gradually weaken late this weekend and heading into the new work week. However, this reprieve will be short lived, as a large upper trough and strong mid-level flow intensify off the Pacific Coast. By midday D3/Monday, high pressure over the Great Basin will strengthen as the upper trough over the Pacific cuts off. Some model uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the cutoff low and the associated belt of stronger easterly flow. While various solutions keep the stronger flow aloft north of the LA Basin, enough upper-air support will likely be in place along with the strong low-level offshore gradients. Downslope winds and low humidity should begin to rebound late D3/Monday afternoon and steadily intensify overnight into D4/Tuesday. This will set the stage for another period of dangerous and potentially high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the LA Basin and southern CA Mountains. Offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying into early D4/Tuesday as offshore gradients peak around 8-10 mb. In combination with 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass. Single digit RH values are expected coincident with the strong winds. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely, with the potential for higher-end critical conditions across parts of the western LA Basin and mountains of southern CA D4/Tuesday. Strong winds should continue into D5/Wed before the upper low gradually moves offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors. Still, localized elevated to near-critical conditions may persist across the western LA Basin and Santa Barbra mountains as late as D6/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Strong offshore winds will likely support a longer duration fire-weather event across portions of southern CA late this weekend through midweek next week. Widespread, potentially high-end critical fire-weather concerns are expected to develop early in the week as an upper low and strong easterly mid-level flow develop off the Pacific Coast. ...Southern CA... Periods of moderate offshore winds over much of southern CA are forecast to gradually weaken late this weekend and heading into the new work week. However, this reprieve will be short lived, as a large upper trough and strong mid-level flow intensify off the Pacific Coast. By midday D3/Monday, high pressure over the Great Basin will strengthen as the upper trough over the Pacific cuts off. Some model uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the cutoff low and the associated belt of stronger easterly flow. While various solutions keep the stronger flow aloft north of the LA Basin, enough upper-air support will likely be in place along with the strong low-level offshore gradients. Downslope winds and low humidity should begin to rebound late D3/Monday afternoon and steadily intensify overnight into D4/Tuesday. This will set the stage for another period of dangerous and potentially high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the LA Basin and southern CA Mountains. Offshore winds are expected to continue intensifying into early D4/Tuesday as offshore gradients peak around 8-10 mb. In combination with 35-50 kt easterly flow aloft, very strong gusts of 45-70+ mph are expected in the higher terrain. Multiple preceding days of poor humidity recovery will exacerbate the already very dry air mass. Single digit RH values are expected coincident with the strong winds. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely, with the potential for higher-end critical conditions across parts of the western LA Basin and mountains of southern CA D4/Tuesday. Strong winds should continue into D5/Wed before the upper low gradually moves offshore and winds aloft become more southeasterly. This shift should favor less alignment with terrain-favored corridors. Still, localized elevated to near-critical conditions may persist across the western LA Basin and Santa Barbra mountains as late as D6/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 01/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 11 21:56:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 11 21:56:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period. Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 01/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... As an upper trough continues to move off the East Coast today, a related surface cold front will clear south FL and the Keys. In its wake, high pressure over coastal TX and the Southeast will generally maintain offshore trajectories over the Gulf through the period. Accordingly, cold and stable conditions from the Rockies eastward are expected to preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more