Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms may occur along/near the western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Low-level warm/moist advection ahead of a weak surface low over the northern Gulf will support eastward-developing convection today. Most of this activity will remain over the open waters of the northeast Gulf. Still, a few thunderstorms could approach parts of the western Florida Gulf Coast. With poor lapse rates aloft, instability should remain minimal over land. Accordingly, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Discussion... Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not expected. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Discussion... Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not expected. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Discussion... Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not expected. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Discussion... Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not expected. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Discussion... Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not expected. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Discussion... Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not expected. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A few thunderstorms may occur near the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast today. ...Discussion... Prevalent warm advection/elevated moisture transport ahead of a weak low over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will influence eastward-developing convection today. Most of this convection will remain focused over the open waters of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, but a few thunderstorms could approach the Big Bend and other parts of the northern/western Florida Gulf Coast. Destabilization inland is expected to remain minimal, and thus severe storms are not expected. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/13/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Shortwave upper ridging will move over the southern Plains vicinity on Day 4/Thu as shortwave trough develops eastward over the Southwest. While surface lee troughing will develop over the High Plains as this occurs, high pressure will persist across eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast. This will keep Gulf moisture offshore and thunderstorm potential is low on Day 4/Thu. Forecast guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread heading into the weekend (Days 5-6/Fri-Sat). In general, the Southwest upper trough is expected migrate eastward into the southern Plains on Friday, and across the Mid-South and Southeast on Saturday. However, forecast guidance shows a fairly low-amplitude trough despite strong mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming over the Plains into the Southeast. A surface low should develop over the southern High Plains and migrate east through weekend, allowing for northward transport of Gulf moisture from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. Guidance varies quite a bit in the northward extent of moisture return. The ECMWF suite of guidance is a bit faster and further north compared to the GFS model suite. Furthermore, SPC and NSSL machine learning guidance has trended lower with severe potential compared to yesterday. While some severe potential is possible from east TX into the central Gulf coast Friday evening into Saturday, confidence remains too low to delineate unconditional Slight risk probabilities at this time. By Day 7/Sun, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast and deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, bringing very cold, dry/stable conditions into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Shortwave upper ridging will move over the southern Plains vicinity on Day 4/Thu as shortwave trough develops eastward over the Southwest. While surface lee troughing will develop over the High Plains as this occurs, high pressure will persist across eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast. This will keep Gulf moisture offshore and thunderstorm potential is low on Day 4/Thu. Forecast guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread heading into the weekend (Days 5-6/Fri-Sat). In general, the Southwest upper trough is expected migrate eastward into the southern Plains on Friday, and across the Mid-South and Southeast on Saturday. However, forecast guidance shows a fairly low-amplitude trough despite strong mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming over the Plains into the Southeast. A surface low should develop over the southern High Plains and migrate east through weekend, allowing for northward transport of Gulf moisture from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. Guidance varies quite a bit in the northward extent of moisture return. The ECMWF suite of guidance is a bit faster and further north compared to the GFS model suite. Furthermore, SPC and NSSL machine learning guidance has trended lower with severe potential compared to yesterday. While some severe potential is possible from east TX into the central Gulf coast Friday evening into Saturday, confidence remains too low to delineate unconditional Slight risk probabilities at this time. By Day 7/Sun, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast and deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, bringing very cold, dry/stable conditions into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Shortwave upper ridging will move over the southern Plains vicinity on Day 4/Thu as shortwave trough develops eastward over the Southwest. While surface lee troughing will develop over the High Plains as this occurs, high pressure will persist across eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast. This will keep Gulf moisture offshore and thunderstorm potential is low on Day 4/Thu. Forecast guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread heading into the weekend (Days 5-6/Fri-Sat). In general, the Southwest upper trough is expected migrate eastward into the southern Plains on Friday, and across the Mid-South and Southeast on Saturday. However, forecast guidance shows a fairly low-amplitude trough despite strong mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming over the Plains into the Southeast. A surface low should develop over the southern High Plains and migrate east through weekend, allowing for northward transport of Gulf moisture from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. Guidance varies quite a bit in the northward extent of moisture return. The ECMWF suite of guidance is a bit faster and further north compared to the GFS model suite. Furthermore, SPC and NSSL machine learning guidance has trended lower with severe potential compared to yesterday. While some severe potential is possible from east TX into the central Gulf coast Friday evening into Saturday, confidence remains too low to delineate unconditional Slight risk probabilities at this time. By Day 7/Sun, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast and deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, bringing very cold, dry/stable conditions into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Shortwave upper ridging will move over the southern Plains vicinity on Day 4/Thu as shortwave trough develops eastward over the Southwest. While surface lee troughing will develop over the High Plains as this occurs, high pressure will persist across eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast. This will keep Gulf moisture offshore and thunderstorm potential is low on Day 4/Thu. Forecast guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread heading into the weekend (Days 5-6/Fri-Sat). In general, the Southwest upper trough is expected migrate eastward into the southern Plains on Friday, and across the Mid-South and Southeast on Saturday. However, forecast guidance shows a fairly low-amplitude trough despite strong mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming over the Plains into the Southeast. A surface low should develop over the southern High Plains and migrate east through weekend, allowing for northward transport of Gulf moisture from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. Guidance varies quite a bit in the northward extent of moisture return. The ECMWF suite of guidance is a bit faster and further north compared to the GFS model suite. Furthermore, SPC and NSSL machine learning guidance has trended lower with severe potential compared to yesterday. While some severe potential is possible from east TX into the central Gulf coast Friday evening into Saturday, confidence remains too low to delineate unconditional Slight risk probabilities at this time. By Day 7/Sun, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast and deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, bringing very cold, dry/stable conditions into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Shortwave upper ridging will move over the southern Plains vicinity on Day 4/Thu as shortwave trough develops eastward over the Southwest. While surface lee troughing will develop over the High Plains as this occurs, high pressure will persist across eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast. This will keep Gulf moisture offshore and thunderstorm potential is low on Day 4/Thu. Forecast guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread heading into the weekend (Days 5-6/Fri-Sat). In general, the Southwest upper trough is expected migrate eastward into the southern Plains on Friday, and across the Mid-South and Southeast on Saturday. However, forecast guidance shows a fairly low-amplitude trough despite strong mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming over the Plains into the Southeast. A surface low should develop over the southern High Plains and migrate east through weekend, allowing for northward transport of Gulf moisture from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. Guidance varies quite a bit in the northward extent of moisture return. The ECMWF suite of guidance is a bit faster and further north compared to the GFS model suite. Furthermore, SPC and NSSL machine learning guidance has trended lower with severe potential compared to yesterday. While some severe potential is possible from east TX into the central Gulf coast Friday evening into Saturday, confidence remains too low to delineate unconditional Slight risk probabilities at this time. By Day 7/Sun, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast and deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, bringing very cold, dry/stable conditions into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Shortwave upper ridging will move over the southern Plains vicinity on Day 4/Thu as shortwave trough develops eastward over the Southwest. While surface lee troughing will develop over the High Plains as this occurs, high pressure will persist across eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast. This will keep Gulf moisture offshore and thunderstorm potential is low on Day 4/Thu. Forecast guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread heading into the weekend (Days 5-6/Fri-Sat). In general, the Southwest upper trough is expected migrate eastward into the southern Plains on Friday, and across the Mid-South and Southeast on Saturday. However, forecast guidance shows a fairly low-amplitude trough despite strong mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming over the Plains into the Southeast. A surface low should develop over the southern High Plains and migrate east through weekend, allowing for northward transport of Gulf moisture from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. Guidance varies quite a bit in the northward extent of moisture return. The ECMWF suite of guidance is a bit faster and further north compared to the GFS model suite. Furthermore, SPC and NSSL machine learning guidance has trended lower with severe potential compared to yesterday. While some severe potential is possible from east TX into the central Gulf coast Friday evening into Saturday, confidence remains too low to delineate unconditional Slight risk probabilities at this time. By Day 7/Sun, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast and deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, bringing very cold, dry/stable conditions into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... Shortwave upper ridging will move over the southern Plains vicinity on Day 4/Thu as shortwave trough develops eastward over the Southwest. While surface lee troughing will develop over the High Plains as this occurs, high pressure will persist across eastern portions of the Plains into the Southeast. This will keep Gulf moisture offshore and thunderstorm potential is low on Day 4/Thu. Forecast guidance continues to have quite a bit of spread heading into the weekend (Days 5-6/Fri-Sat). In general, the Southwest upper trough is expected migrate eastward into the southern Plains on Friday, and across the Mid-South and Southeast on Saturday. However, forecast guidance shows a fairly low-amplitude trough despite strong mid/upper southwesterly flow streaming over the Plains into the Southeast. A surface low should develop over the southern High Plains and migrate east through weekend, allowing for northward transport of Gulf moisture from east TX into the Lower MS Valley and central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. Guidance varies quite a bit in the northward extent of moisture return. The ECMWF suite of guidance is a bit faster and further north compared to the GFS model suite. Furthermore, SPC and NSSL machine learning guidance has trended lower with severe potential compared to yesterday. While some severe potential is possible from east TX into the central Gulf coast Friday evening into Saturday, confidence remains too low to delineate unconditional Slight risk probabilities at this time. By Day 7/Sun, a cold front will move offshore the Atlantic coast and deep into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong surface high pressure and an arctic airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, bringing very cold, dry/stable conditions into early next week. Read more