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7 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA...
...19z Update...
Confidence continues to increase that strong offshore winds and
high-end critical fire-weather conditions will be ongoing at the
start of the period D2/Wed morning. A belt of 25-35 kt mid-level
east-northeasterly flow, will gradually become more easterly and
align with a pronounced offshore pressure gradient across southern
California. This should support sustained 25-35 mph surface winds
and RH near 10% across the western LA Basin Santa Ana corridors.
Stronger gusts to 40-50 mph will also be possible across the higher
terrain. Fire-weather concerns will remain high through the day
before winds decrease overnight into D3/Thurs. See the prior outlook
for more info.
..Lyons.. 01/14/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/
...Synopsis...
A belt of stronger mid-level east-northeasterly flow, along with
surface high pressure over the Great Basin, will continue to support
a pronounced pressure gradient across southern California, where dry
offshore flow will remain a concern for most of the Day 2
(Wednesday) period. Latest guidance consensus shows at least 25 mph
sustained winds amid 10-20 percent RH across terrain favoring areas
from the Ventura Valley to the Laguna Mountains. These conditions
are most likely during the first half of the period, with Critical
highlights added to address the wildfire-spread potential.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
7 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Discussion...
An upper trough will shift steadily across the eastern half of the
U.S. Thursday, while the next feature -- an energetic short-wave
trough digging southeastward out of western Canada -- reaches the
northern Intermountain Region/northern Plains late.
As this feature advances, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to
shift eastward across the Canadian Prairie Provinces, while a
trailing Arctic cold front progresses southward across the northern
Rockies/northern Plains Thursday night.
Meanwhile, with cold/dry low-level air already in place across the
U.S., thunderstorms are not anticipated.
..Goss.. 01/14/2025
Read more
7 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Discussion...
An upper trough will shift steadily across the eastern half of the
U.S. Thursday, while the next feature -- an energetic short-wave
trough digging southeastward out of western Canada -- reaches the
northern Intermountain Region/northern Plains late.
As this feature advances, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to
shift eastward across the Canadian Prairie Provinces, while a
trailing Arctic cold front progresses southward across the northern
Rockies/northern Plains Thursday night.
Meanwhile, with cold/dry low-level air already in place across the
U.S., thunderstorms are not anticipated.
..Goss.. 01/14/2025
Read more
7 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Discussion...
An upper trough will shift steadily across the eastern half of the
U.S. Thursday, while the next feature -- an energetic short-wave
trough digging southeastward out of western Canada -- reaches the
northern Intermountain Region/northern Plains late.
As this feature advances, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to
shift eastward across the Canadian Prairie Provinces, while a
trailing Arctic cold front progresses southward across the northern
Rockies/northern Plains Thursday night.
Meanwhile, with cold/dry low-level air already in place across the
U.S., thunderstorms are not anticipated.
..Goss.. 01/14/2025
Read more
7 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Discussion...
An upper trough will shift steadily across the eastern half of the
U.S. Thursday, while the next feature -- an energetic short-wave
trough digging southeastward out of western Canada -- reaches the
northern Intermountain Region/northern Plains late.
As this feature advances, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to
shift eastward across the Canadian Prairie Provinces, while a
trailing Arctic cold front progresses southward across the northern
Rockies/northern Plains Thursday night.
Meanwhile, with cold/dry low-level air already in place across the
U.S., thunderstorms are not anticipated.
..Goss.. 01/14/2025
Read more
7 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Discussion...
An upper trough will shift steadily across the eastern half of the
U.S. Thursday, while the next feature -- an energetic short-wave
trough digging southeastward out of western Canada -- reaches the
northern Intermountain Region/northern Plains late.
As this feature advances, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to
shift eastward across the Canadian Prairie Provinces, while a
trailing Arctic cold front progresses southward across the northern
Rockies/northern Plains Thursday night.
Meanwhile, with cold/dry low-level air already in place across the
U.S., thunderstorms are not anticipated.
..Goss.. 01/14/2025
Read more
7 months ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.
...Discussion...
An upper trough will shift steadily across the eastern half of the
U.S. Thursday, while the next feature -- an energetic short-wave
trough digging southeastward out of western Canada -- reaches the
northern Intermountain Region/northern Plains late.
As this feature advances, a deepening surface cyclone is forecast to
shift eastward across the Canadian Prairie Provinces, while a
trailing Arctic cold front progresses southward across the northern
Rockies/northern Plains Thursday night.
Meanwhile, with cold/dry low-level air already in place across the
U.S., thunderstorms are not anticipated.
..Goss.. 01/14/2025
Read more
7 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday.
...Discussion...
A mid-level short-wave trough moving southeastward across the Plains
states Wednesday will contribute to amplification of the broader
troughing/cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S. through the period.
As this occurs, surface high pressure representing cold/dry
continental air will prevail across much of the country through
Thursday morning.
Given the cool/dry/stable air dominating the country, thunderstorms
are largely precluded. An exception will be over coastal South
Texas, where weak CAPE atop a deep/stable boundary layer will
support scattered showers, and potentially a few lightning flashes.
However, with coverage of any lightning still expected to remain
quite limited, no thunder area will be added at this time.
..Goss.. 01/14/2025
Read more
7 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday.
...Discussion...
A mid-level short-wave trough moving southeastward across the Plains
states Wednesday will contribute to amplification of the broader
troughing/cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S. through the period.
As this occurs, surface high pressure representing cold/dry
continental air will prevail across much of the country through
Thursday morning.
Given the cool/dry/stable air dominating the country, thunderstorms
are largely precluded. An exception will be over coastal South
Texas, where weak CAPE atop a deep/stable boundary layer will
support scattered showers, and potentially a few lightning flashes.
However, with coverage of any lightning still expected to remain
quite limited, no thunder area will be added at this time.
..Goss.. 01/14/2025
Read more
7 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday.
...Discussion...
A mid-level short-wave trough moving southeastward across the Plains
states Wednesday will contribute to amplification of the broader
troughing/cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S. through the period.
As this occurs, surface high pressure representing cold/dry
continental air will prevail across much of the country through
Thursday morning.
Given the cool/dry/stable air dominating the country, thunderstorms
are largely precluded. An exception will be over coastal South
Texas, where weak CAPE atop a deep/stable boundary layer will
support scattered showers, and potentially a few lightning flashes.
However, with coverage of any lightning still expected to remain
quite limited, no thunder area will be added at this time.
..Goss.. 01/14/2025
Read more
7 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday.
...Discussion...
A mid-level short-wave trough moving southeastward across the Plains
states Wednesday will contribute to amplification of the broader
troughing/cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S. through the period.
As this occurs, surface high pressure representing cold/dry
continental air will prevail across much of the country through
Thursday morning.
Given the cool/dry/stable air dominating the country, thunderstorms
are largely precluded. An exception will be over coastal South
Texas, where weak CAPE atop a deep/stable boundary layer will
support scattered showers, and potentially a few lightning flashes.
However, with coverage of any lightning still expected to remain
quite limited, no thunder area will be added at this time.
..Goss.. 01/14/2025
Read more
7 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday.
...Discussion...
A mid-level short-wave trough moving southeastward across the Plains
states Wednesday will contribute to amplification of the broader
troughing/cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S. through the period.
As this occurs, surface high pressure representing cold/dry
continental air will prevail across much of the country through
Thursday morning.
Given the cool/dry/stable air dominating the country, thunderstorms
are largely precluded. An exception will be over coastal South
Texas, where weak CAPE atop a deep/stable boundary layer will
support scattered showers, and potentially a few lightning flashes.
However, with coverage of any lightning still expected to remain
quite limited, no thunder area will be added at this time.
..Goss.. 01/14/2025
Read more
7 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday.
...Discussion...
A mid-level short-wave trough moving southeastward across the Plains
states Wednesday will contribute to amplification of the broader
troughing/cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S. through the period.
As this occurs, surface high pressure representing cold/dry
continental air will prevail across much of the country through
Thursday morning.
Given the cool/dry/stable air dominating the country, thunderstorms
are largely precluded. An exception will be over coastal South
Texas, where weak CAPE atop a deep/stable boundary layer will
support scattered showers, and potentially a few lightning flashes.
However, with coverage of any lightning still expected to remain
quite limited, no thunder area will be added at this time.
..Goss.. 01/14/2025
Read more
7 months ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Minimal to no lightning is expected across the U.S. on Wednesday.
...Discussion...
A mid-level short-wave trough moving southeastward across the Plains
states Wednesday will contribute to amplification of the broader
troughing/cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S. through the period.
As this occurs, surface high pressure representing cold/dry
continental air will prevail across much of the country through
Thursday morning.
Given the cool/dry/stable air dominating the country, thunderstorms
are largely precluded. An exception will be over coastal South
Texas, where weak CAPE atop a deep/stable boundary layer will
support scattered showers, and potentially a few lightning flashes.
However, with coverage of any lightning still expected to remain
quite limited, no thunder area will be added at this time.
..Goss.. 01/14/2025
Read more
7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
LA BASIN...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA...
...17z Update...
Morning obs show offshore flow has been slow to develop across
western Ventura and LA Counties. Stronger gusts of 50-60 mph were
noted in the western San Gabriel mountains, and should become more
common across the higher terrain through the afternoon. As
mechanical mixing increases with diurnal heating, stronger winds
should also develop across much of southern CA. Sustained 20-30 mph
winds with RH below 20% is expected across the Ventura Plain and
interior Valleys this afternoon, as upper-level winds become aligned
with offshore gradients. This should promote several hours of
high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions through
terrain-favored corridors. Critical fire concern should continue
overnight as winds strengthen again into early D2/Wed morning. The
prior outlook area is unchanged, see the previous discussion for
more info.
..Lyons.. 01/14/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/
...Synopsis...
A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread
southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift
southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the
surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours,
encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley
to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore
winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for
much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical
highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained
30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura
Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical
highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous
wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire
behavior.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
LA BASIN...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA...
...17z Update...
Morning obs show offshore flow has been slow to develop across
western Ventura and LA Counties. Stronger gusts of 50-60 mph were
noted in the western San Gabriel mountains, and should become more
common across the higher terrain through the afternoon. As
mechanical mixing increases with diurnal heating, stronger winds
should also develop across much of southern CA. Sustained 20-30 mph
winds with RH below 20% is expected across the Ventura Plain and
interior Valleys this afternoon, as upper-level winds become aligned
with offshore gradients. This should promote several hours of
high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions through
terrain-favored corridors. Critical fire concern should continue
overnight as winds strengthen again into early D2/Wed morning. The
prior outlook area is unchanged, see the previous discussion for
more info.
..Lyons.. 01/14/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/
...Synopsis...
A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread
southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift
southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the
surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours,
encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley
to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore
winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for
much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical
highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained
30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura
Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical
highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous
wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire
behavior.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
LA BASIN...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA...
...17z Update...
Morning obs show offshore flow has been slow to develop across
western Ventura and LA Counties. Stronger gusts of 50-60 mph were
noted in the western San Gabriel mountains, and should become more
common across the higher terrain through the afternoon. As
mechanical mixing increases with diurnal heating, stronger winds
should also develop across much of southern CA. Sustained 20-30 mph
winds with RH below 20% is expected across the Ventura Plain and
interior Valleys this afternoon, as upper-level winds become aligned
with offshore gradients. This should promote several hours of
high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions through
terrain-favored corridors. Critical fire concern should continue
overnight as winds strengthen again into early D2/Wed morning. The
prior outlook area is unchanged, see the previous discussion for
more info.
..Lyons.. 01/14/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/
...Synopsis...
A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread
southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift
southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the
surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours,
encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley
to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore
winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for
much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical
highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained
30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura
Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical
highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous
wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire
behavior.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
LA BASIN...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA...
...17z Update...
Morning obs show offshore flow has been slow to develop across
western Ventura and LA Counties. Stronger gusts of 50-60 mph were
noted in the western San Gabriel mountains, and should become more
common across the higher terrain through the afternoon. As
mechanical mixing increases with diurnal heating, stronger winds
should also develop across much of southern CA. Sustained 20-30 mph
winds with RH below 20% is expected across the Ventura Plain and
interior Valleys this afternoon, as upper-level winds become aligned
with offshore gradients. This should promote several hours of
high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions through
terrain-favored corridors. Critical fire concern should continue
overnight as winds strengthen again into early D2/Wed morning. The
prior outlook area is unchanged, see the previous discussion for
more info.
..Lyons.. 01/14/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/
...Synopsis...
A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread
southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift
southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the
surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours,
encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley
to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore
winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for
much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical
highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained
30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura
Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical
highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous
wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire
behavior.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
LA BASIN...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA...
...17z Update...
Morning obs show offshore flow has been slow to develop across
western Ventura and LA Counties. Stronger gusts of 50-60 mph were
noted in the western San Gabriel mountains, and should become more
common across the higher terrain through the afternoon. As
mechanical mixing increases with diurnal heating, stronger winds
should also develop across much of southern CA. Sustained 20-30 mph
winds with RH below 20% is expected across the Ventura Plain and
interior Valleys this afternoon, as upper-level winds become aligned
with offshore gradients. This should promote several hours of
high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions through
terrain-favored corridors. Critical fire concern should continue
overnight as winds strengthen again into early D2/Wed morning. The
prior outlook area is unchanged, see the previous discussion for
more info.
..Lyons.. 01/14/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/
...Synopsis...
A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread
southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift
southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the
surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours,
encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley
to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore
winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for
much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical
highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained
30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura
Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical
highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous
wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire
behavior.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025
Valid 141700Z - 151200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
LA BASIN...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA...
...17z Update...
Morning obs show offshore flow has been slow to develop across
western Ventura and LA Counties. Stronger gusts of 50-60 mph were
noted in the western San Gabriel mountains, and should become more
common across the higher terrain through the afternoon. As
mechanical mixing increases with diurnal heating, stronger winds
should also develop across much of southern CA. Sustained 20-30 mph
winds with RH below 20% is expected across the Ventura Plain and
interior Valleys this afternoon, as upper-level winds become aligned
with offshore gradients. This should promote several hours of
high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions through
terrain-favored corridors. Critical fire concern should continue
overnight as winds strengthen again into early D2/Wed morning. The
prior outlook area is unchanged, see the previous discussion for
more info.
..Lyons.. 01/14/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Tue Jan 14 2025/
...Synopsis...
A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow will overspread
southern California as a 500 mb cut-off low attempts to drift
southwest from the coastline today. A localized tightening of the
surface pressure gradient is likely during the morning hours,
encouraging very strong, dry offshore flow from the Ventura Valley
to the Laguna Mountains. Widespread 20-30 mph sustained offshore
winds are likely (perhaps with gusts exceeding 50 mph at times) for
much of the period, warranting the maintenance of Critical
highlights. Similar to yesterday, the best chance for sustained
30-40 mph winds amid 10 percent RH will be from around the Ventura
Valley to the San Bernardino Mountains. Here, Extremely Critical
highlights remain given the potential for very dangerous
wildfire-spread conditions and the potential for extreme fire
behavior.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more
Checked
5 years 10 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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