Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough will develop eastward from the southern Plains to the Southeast on Friday. As this occurs, an intense midlevel jet streak will overspread the Gulf coast states. A weak surface/trough will likely track from OK/TX to the Lower MS Valley, with an attendant cold front tracking southeast across the region through early Saturday. Southerly low-level flow will allow for some modified Gulf moisture to return northward from East TX to the central Gulf coast. Low 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain confined near the coast, with 50s F dewpoints reaching roughly as far north as southern AR into central MS/AL during the evening and overnight hours. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary-layer will remain capped, limiting surface instability. However, steepening midlevel lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg). Isolated elevated thunderstorm will be possible from near the Sabine River into parts of the central Gulf coast states Friday evening into early Saturday morning ahead of the advancing cold front. Poor thermodynamics will limit overall severe thunderstorm potential. However, strong forcing and an increasing low-level jet ahead of the front could be sufficient amid weak elevated instability to support a briefly strong storm or two producing gusty winds from southeast LA to far southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle vicinity. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough will develop eastward from the southern Plains to the Southeast on Friday. As this occurs, an intense midlevel jet streak will overspread the Gulf coast states. A weak surface/trough will likely track from OK/TX to the Lower MS Valley, with an attendant cold front tracking southeast across the region through early Saturday. Southerly low-level flow will allow for some modified Gulf moisture to return northward from East TX to the central Gulf coast. Low 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain confined near the coast, with 50s F dewpoints reaching roughly as far north as southern AR into central MS/AL during the evening and overnight hours. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary-layer will remain capped, limiting surface instability. However, steepening midlevel lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg). Isolated elevated thunderstorm will be possible from near the Sabine River into parts of the central Gulf coast states Friday evening into early Saturday morning ahead of the advancing cold front. Poor thermodynamics will limit overall severe thunderstorm potential. However, strong forcing and an increasing low-level jet ahead of the front could be sufficient amid weak elevated instability to support a briefly strong storm or two producing gusty winds from southeast LA to far southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle vicinity. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into early Saturday morning. ...Synopsis... A shortwave upper trough will develop eastward from the southern Plains to the Southeast on Friday. As this occurs, an intense midlevel jet streak will overspread the Gulf coast states. A weak surface/trough will likely track from OK/TX to the Lower MS Valley, with an attendant cold front tracking southeast across the region through early Saturday. Southerly low-level flow will allow for some modified Gulf moisture to return northward from East TX to the central Gulf coast. Low 60s F dewpoints are expected to remain confined near the coast, with 50s F dewpoints reaching roughly as far north as southern AR into central MS/AL during the evening and overnight hours. Forecast soundings indicate the boundary-layer will remain capped, limiting surface instability. However, steepening midlevel lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg). Isolated elevated thunderstorm will be possible from near the Sabine River into parts of the central Gulf coast states Friday evening into early Saturday morning ahead of the advancing cold front. Poor thermodynamics will limit overall severe thunderstorm potential. However, strong forcing and an increasing low-level jet ahead of the front could be sufficient amid weak elevated instability to support a briefly strong storm or two producing gusty winds from southeast LA to far southern MS/AL, and the western FL Panhandle vicinity. ..Leitman.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Mid-level short-wave trough will dig off the Southeast Atlantic Coast early in the period. This will maintain surface ridging along the Gulf Coast from south TX to the western FL Peninsula. As a result, offshore flow will suppress instability necessary for deep convection and thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Mid-level short-wave trough will dig off the Southeast Atlantic Coast early in the period. This will maintain surface ridging along the Gulf Coast from south TX to the western FL Peninsula. As a result, offshore flow will suppress instability necessary for deep convection and thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Mid-level short-wave trough will dig off the Southeast Atlantic Coast early in the period. This will maintain surface ridging along the Gulf Coast from south TX to the western FL Peninsula. As a result, offshore flow will suppress instability necessary for deep convection and thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Mid-level short-wave trough will dig off the Southeast Atlantic Coast early in the period. This will maintain surface ridging along the Gulf Coast from south TX to the western FL Peninsula. As a result, offshore flow will suppress instability necessary for deep convection and thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... Mid-level short-wave trough will dig off the Southeast Atlantic Coast early in the period. This will maintain surface ridging along the Gulf Coast from south TX to the western FL Peninsula. As a result, offshore flow will suppress instability necessary for deep convection and thunderstorms are not forecast. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is low across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Offshore boundary will continue to sag southeast tonight as mid-level short-wave trough ejects southeast across the central Gulf States. A few thunderstorms are currently noted about 100 mi southeast of GLS near this boundary, but the risk for lightning with the shallow elevated convection over land is minimal. ..Darrow.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is low across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Offshore boundary will continue to sag southeast tonight as mid-level short-wave trough ejects southeast across the central Gulf States. A few thunderstorms are currently noted about 100 mi southeast of GLS near this boundary, but the risk for lightning with the shallow elevated convection over land is minimal. ..Darrow.. 01/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0617 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is low across the CONUS tonight. ...01z Update... Offshore boundary will continue to sag southeast tonight as mid-level short-wave trough ejects southeast across the central Gulf States. A few thunderstorms are currently noted about 100 mi southeast of GLS near this boundary, but the risk for lightning with the shallow elevated convection over land is minimal. ..Darrow.. 01/16/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 15 22:26:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 15 22:26:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Across much of the central and eastern CONUS, fire-weather conditions appear negligible through the extended forecast period. A cold front and arctic air mass will move south across the eastern 2/3rds of the US late this weekend and into early next week. High pressure will settle over the Great Basin as strong northerly mid-level flow will develop over the West. Some model solutions suggest this could support a fire-weather threat, across parts of southern CA next week. ...Southern CA... Dry conditions and intermittent, weak offshore flow are expected across much of southern CA. Winds should remain light, and little critical fire-weather potential is expected through this weekend. Starting early next week, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen as the arctic air mass invades much of the lower 48. Current forecast guidance remains split on the magnitude of an upper trough forecast to intensify over the Southwest. More aggressive solutions show this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D6/Mon through D8/Wed. However, given the significant model differences in placement and strength of the relevant upper-air features, predictability remains too low to justify probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Across much of the central and eastern CONUS, fire-weather conditions appear negligible through the extended forecast period. A cold front and arctic air mass will move south across the eastern 2/3rds of the US late this weekend and into early next week. High pressure will settle over the Great Basin as strong northerly mid-level flow will develop over the West. Some model solutions suggest this could support a fire-weather threat, across parts of southern CA next week. ...Southern CA... Dry conditions and intermittent, weak offshore flow are expected across much of southern CA. Winds should remain light, and little critical fire-weather potential is expected through this weekend. Starting early next week, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen as the arctic air mass invades much of the lower 48. Current forecast guidance remains split on the magnitude of an upper trough forecast to intensify over the Southwest. More aggressive solutions show this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D6/Mon through D8/Wed. However, given the significant model differences in placement and strength of the relevant upper-air features, predictability remains too low to justify probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Across much of the central and eastern CONUS, fire-weather conditions appear negligible through the extended forecast period. A cold front and arctic air mass will move south across the eastern 2/3rds of the US late this weekend and into early next week. High pressure will settle over the Great Basin as strong northerly mid-level flow will develop over the West. Some model solutions suggest this could support a fire-weather threat, across parts of southern CA next week. ...Southern CA... Dry conditions and intermittent, weak offshore flow are expected across much of southern CA. Winds should remain light, and little critical fire-weather potential is expected through this weekend. Starting early next week, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen as the arctic air mass invades much of the lower 48. Current forecast guidance remains split on the magnitude of an upper trough forecast to intensify over the Southwest. More aggressive solutions show this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D6/Mon through D8/Wed. However, given the significant model differences in placement and strength of the relevant upper-air features, predictability remains too low to justify probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Across much of the central and eastern CONUS, fire-weather conditions appear negligible through the extended forecast period. A cold front and arctic air mass will move south across the eastern 2/3rds of the US late this weekend and into early next week. High pressure will settle over the Great Basin as strong northerly mid-level flow will develop over the West. Some model solutions suggest this could support a fire-weather threat, across parts of southern CA next week. ...Southern CA... Dry conditions and intermittent, weak offshore flow are expected across much of southern CA. Winds should remain light, and little critical fire-weather potential is expected through this weekend. Starting early next week, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen as the arctic air mass invades much of the lower 48. Current forecast guidance remains split on the magnitude of an upper trough forecast to intensify over the Southwest. More aggressive solutions show this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D6/Mon through D8/Wed. However, given the significant model differences in placement and strength of the relevant upper-air features, predictability remains too low to justify probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z Across much of the central and eastern CONUS, fire-weather conditions appear negligible through the extended forecast period. A cold front and arctic air mass will move south across the eastern 2/3rds of the US late this weekend and into early next week. High pressure will settle over the Great Basin as strong northerly mid-level flow will develop over the West. Some model solutions suggest this could support a fire-weather threat, across parts of southern CA next week. ...Southern CA... Dry conditions and intermittent, weak offshore flow are expected across much of southern CA. Winds should remain light, and little critical fire-weather potential is expected through this weekend. Starting early next week, high pressure over the Great Basin is forecast to strengthen as the arctic air mass invades much of the lower 48. Current forecast guidance remains split on the magnitude of an upper trough forecast to intensify over the Southwest. More aggressive solutions show this trough potentially forcing strong mid-level flow over parts of southern CA. Should this occur, strong offshore pressure gradients, supported by moderate flow aloft could allow for a period of critical fire-weather conditions, mainly D6/Mon through D8/Wed. However, given the significant model differences in placement and strength of the relevant upper-air features, predictability remains too low to justify probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 01/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... The primary change for this update was to remove the general thunderstorm risk area along the TX Gulf coast. Latest IR trends show the deepest convection capable of producing lightning flashes offshore. This trend will continue as a weak surface low migrates further into the Gulf through the late afternoon/overnight hours and cool offshore flow becomes more prevalent along the coast. Consequently, thunderstorm potential through 12 UTC Thursday will remain too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With weak instability in place this morning, isolated thunderstorms should continue for a few more hours along parts of the middle/upper TX Coast as an upper trough pivots southeastward over the southern Plains. This activity will remain elevated in nature, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the rest of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... The primary change for this update was to remove the general thunderstorm risk area along the TX Gulf coast. Latest IR trends show the deepest convection capable of producing lightning flashes offshore. This trend will continue as a weak surface low migrates further into the Gulf through the late afternoon/overnight hours and cool offshore flow becomes more prevalent along the coast. Consequently, thunderstorm potential through 12 UTC Thursday will remain too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 01/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... With weak instability in place this morning, isolated thunderstorms should continue for a few more hours along parts of the middle/upper TX Coast as an upper trough pivots southeastward over the southern Plains. This activity will remain elevated in nature, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Across the rest of the CONUS, dry and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms through tonight. Read more